Luton vs Arsenal betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Premier League leaders Arsenal visit Kenilworth Road to face top-flight new boys Luton in an intriguing Tuesday night affair. Michael Beardmore picks out his best bet.
- Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore) is +25pts in profit for the 2023/24 football season
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Goal in both halves - 'No' at 7/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Arsenal have the chance to stretch their advantage at the top of the Premier League to five points and really lay the gauntlet down to title rivals Manchester City and Liverpool, who both face their own away trips the following night.
The Gunners have won five straight matches in all competitions but have been vulnerable on the road in recent weeks, losing at Newcastle in the league, West Ham in the Carabao Cup and Lens in the Champions League.
Luton, meanwhile, have been picking up enough points to keep their noses above water - albeit with the aid of Everton's 10-point deduction - helped by their impressive past two home results, a win over Crystal Palace and a draw with Liverpool.
What are the best bets?
Those two results were achieved despite Luton comfortably losing the expected goals (xG) battle in both games and it is little surprise to see Arsenal heavily odds-on here, meaning it is tough to find any semblance of value about a Gunners win.
You can get even money on the visitors to win to nil and that's worth considering given they've done so in four of their six away trips, but Luton have netted in all-but-one of their games in front of their fired-up fans and the risk outweighs the reward for me.
Instead, I'm plumping for a real stats-based bet at a nice price - that being GOAL IN BOTH HALVES - 'NO' at 7/4.
I'll grant you on the face of things, it may look a strange one given the sides' respective positions in the table but the numbers suggest it has real value.
Rob Edwards' Luton have really tightened up in recent weeks, particularly in the first half. Six out of their past seven matches have been goalless at the break, including meetings with Manchester United plus free-scoring pair Liverpool and Tottenham.
Additionally, Arsenal have saved most of their goals for Emirates Stadium - scoring 20 at home but just nine away with their six trips yielding four 1-0 scorelines. And even if they do bag a couple in the first half, they could ease off after the interval.
BuildABet @ 30/1
- Luton 4+ corners
- Bukayo Saka to score anytime
- Bukayo Saka 2+ tackles
- Luton 13+ fouls
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Luton have earned four or more corners in every home game since promotion but they also rack up the fouls at Kenilworth Road, committing 16, for example, against Arsenal's north London rivals Tottenham.
Bukayo Saka has scored five goals this season and four have come against bottom-half sides but he's also not afraid to get stuck in, registering two tackles or more in eight of his 13 Premier League appearances this term.
Score prediction: Luton 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Team news
Full-back Takehiro Tomiyasu is a doubt for Arsenal after being taken off with a minor injury against Wolves and is likely to be replaced by Ben White, who came on for the Japan defender on Saturday.
The Gunners have no other fresh injury concerns with Thomas Partey, Emile Smith-Rowe, Fabio Vieira and Jurrien Timber all out for varying medium-to-long-term periods.
Luton have worries over defenders Tom Lockyer and Teden Mengi after both were forced off in the defeat at Brentford, while on-loan Arsenal midfielder Albert Sambi Lokonga is ineligible to face his parent club.
Marvelous Nakamba, Reece Burke, Dan Potts, Mads Andersen, Cauley Woodrow and Alfie Doughty are also all likely to remain sidelined for the Hatters.
Predicted line-ups
Luton: Kaminski; Osho, Bell, Giles; Kabore, Ruddock-Mpanzu, Barkley, Chong; Townsend, Brown, Morris
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Odegaard, Rice, Havertz; Saka, Jesus, Trossard
Match facts
- This is the first meeting between Luton and Arsenal in any competition since December 1991, when the Hatters claimed a 1-0 win at Kenilworth Road in the top-flight.
- Arsenal have won six of the last seven games when facing a side in the Premier League for the first time, though the exception was a 2-0 defeat at Brentford in their last such match in August 2021.
- Luton have only lost three of their last 22 league games played on a Tuesday (W11 D8), though one of those was in their only such Premier League game so far (1-2 v Burnley in October).
- Luton picked up their first Premier League home win last time out against Crystal Palace. They’ve conceded in all six at Kenilworth Road in the competition so far, but have only failed to score once (0-1 v Tottenham in October).
- No side have kept more away clean sheets (4) or conceded fewer goals on the road (3) in the Premier League this season than Arsenal. Three of the Gunners’ four league wins on the road this season have been by a 1-0 scoreline.
- Jacob Brown has scored in both of Luton’s last two Premier League games – he last scored in three consecutive English league appearances in April 2019, while at Barnsley.
- If he plays, this will be Bukayo Saka’s 200th appearance for Arsenal in all competitions. Aged 22 years and 91 days, he’d be the second youngest English player to ever reach the milestone for the Gunners after Cliff Bastin (22y 16d) and youngest overall since Cesc Fàbregas in 2008 (21y 118d).
Odds correct at 1345 GMT (04/12/23)
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