Two Sky Bet Championship sides in need of some festive cheer meet at Kenilworth Road on Boxing Day as Luton host Norwich. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship
1pt Tom Lockyer to be shown a card at 4/1 (bet365)
1pt Alfie Doughty to be shown a card at 5/1 (bet365)
It’s fair to say things are not quite panning out as either Luton or Norwich hoped this season.
The Hatters reached the Sky Bet Championship play-offs last season but have struggled to recreate that form, mired in mid-table mediocrity and losing boss Nathan Jones to Southampton.
Their Boxing Day clash with Norwich will mark new manager Rob Edwards’ home bow – while in the other dugout Dean Smith bids to cling on to his job.
Six defeats in the Canaries’ past 11 games have placed Smith firmly under the microscope and left their automatic promotion chances looking increasingly slim.
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Monday/Boxing Day
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Luton 17/10 | Draw 9/4 | Norwich 13/8
Luton have won only one in seven too and while Edwards’ first home game in charge should lift them, it’s understandable why the bookies cannot separate the sides.
There’s no discernible reason to pick a side here – so we shouldn’t, and instead focus our attentions on markets where value can be found.
Should you fancy a goalscorer punt, there are decent anytime odds on the respective teams’ leading marksmen – Norwich’s Josh Sargent 12/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair, Luton’s Carlton Morris 11/4 with bet365.
Given they have nine and eight goals respectively this campaign, there are worse shouts but both are in the midst of relative slumps – Morris two goals in 12 games, Sargent one goal in 10.
Instead, the best value in this encounter lies in the card markets – particularly with Luton, who have really seen the red mist recently. Their opening 14 games yielded only 16 Luton cards, yet the subsequent nine have produced 23 including two reds.
Only Birmingham have committed more fouls per game than Luton’s 11.8 this season while only two sides have had more fouls committed against them than Norwich’s 11.2 per match, meaning home cautions are far likelier than away ones here.
Two Hatters players spring out in the betting – defender TOM LOCKYER who is 4/1 to be SHOWN A CARD having seen yellow three times already this season. He’s averaging 1.6 tackles and 1.8 interceptions per game – high-risk figures.
Even better is the 5/1 on ALFIE DOUGHTY TO BE SHOWN A CARD – the midfielder has been booked four times in seven matches. With a long list of Luton unavailabilities, he should start – he leads Luton in both tackles (2) and fouls (1.9) per game.
Luton v Norwich best bets and score prediction
- Tom Lockyer to be shown a card at 4/1 (Bet365)
- Alfie Doughty to be shown a card at 5/1 (Bet365)
Score prediction: Luton 1-0 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 2130 GMT (21/12/22)
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