1pt Millwall to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 23/10 (BoyleSports)
Luton Town head into this game after suffering a heavy 3-0 defeat away at Stoke on Saturday afternoon, delivering arguably their worst display of the season, and at Nathan Jones's old stomping ground.
They’ve now lost consecutive matches, and to make matters worse, the Hatters have suffered six defeats across their last 10 games, recording underwhelming underlying numbers across that period.
Through those fixtures, Luton have averaged 1.00 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.24 expected goals against (xGA) – a poor process, particularly in attack.
It’s therefore not surprising that Luton are struggling for goals when fashioning so little opportunities in front of goal, and now up against Millwall’s impressive back line, it seems likely they’ll fail to fire again.
The Lions have now kept consecutive clean sheets in the Championship against opposition at the bottom of the table, most recently when sharing the points against Wycombe (xG: MIL 0.67 – 0.62 WYC).
Millwall are one of the league’s most in-form teams, though, now unbeaten across their last eight games, with the club now sitting on 42 points.
They fell short of play-off qualification by just two points last season, and after a strong run of results, Gary Rowett will be aiming for a similar play-off challenge.
Rowett’s side certainly aren’t the most pleasing on the eye, but their tenacious defending (1.10 xGA per game) ensures they’re always competitive.
The data suggests neither of these two sides will create an abundance of goal scoring chances here although, with Millwall arriving high on confidence, the visitors seem the most likely winners.
To conclude, the bet I like with is MILLWALL to WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS at 23/10, which seems an attractive play at a reasonable price.
Score prediction: Luton 0-2 Millwall (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 16.25 GMT (22/02/21)
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