Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 13/10 (General)
0.5pt Malick Thiaw to score anytime at 12/1 (bet365)
Liverpool enjoyed a morale-boosting 6-0 win over Qarabag in midweek, providing momentary respite for an under pressure Arne Slot.
Such has been the Reds' campaign, as emphatic a victory as that was it did not come without downside. Their already depleted squad was stretched further by Jeremie Frimpong's fourth-minute injury, which left only two recognised defenders in the XI until teenager Amara Nallo's late introduction.
A swift return to Premier League action for the visit of Newcastle means Slot does not escape scrutiny for long, and judging by his team's record this season this is unlikely to be a fixture the Dutchman will relish.
Liverpool haven't beaten any of the current top 10 since November, have won only once against any of them since September and only twice since August.
Were it not for a misleading 13-match unbeaten run - which involved six draws (including against Sunderland, Leeds and Burnley) - that was finally ended by Bournemouth last weekend, the noise would likely be much louder.
Bruno Guimaraes just missed out against PSG in midweek after failing a fitness test and could return on Saturday, a boost Newcastle need judging by the fact they haven't won a league game without him since he joined the club four years ago.
If the Magpies captain was certain to be fit I may have been tempted by the double chance, but ultimately this is a contest where the 1x2 is perhaps better left alone, especially as Eddie Howe's side have only won twice away in the league this season.
From a Liverpool perspective while results have undoubtedly been poor - they are sixth in the table and 10 points adrift of the top three - much of the criticism levelled at Slot has been over his failure to get the balance between attack and defence right.
It's led to a more restrained, conservative style at home, scoring only 16 times in 11 league games at Anfield with 55% of those fixtures involving UNDER 2.5 GOALS, including four of their last five.
Painful as it is to oppose goals in a fixture steeped in Premier League goalscoring heritage, I'm prepared to capitalise on overs being heavily favoured and take the 13/10.
The Magpies' top-flight away trips have also gone unders 55% of the time, averaging just two goals per game. Four of their last five matches in all competitions have seen under 2.5 and Howe's team showed their defensive resilience by frustrating PSG to draw 1-1 in Paris on Wednesday.
There is hope that some of Liverpool's defensive problems could ease this weekend - in terms of selection anyway - with Ibrahima Konate (personal reasons) and Joe Gomez (hip) both potentially returning.
Regardless, that's unlikely to solve their issues defending set-pieces, a shortcoming that cost them last weekend when failing to clear a long throw deep in stoppage time.
The Reds have conceded the second most goals (14) from dead-ball situations in the Premier League this term. Newcastle (11) are only two shy of Arsenal for most scored that way, accounting for 34% of their goals.
MALICK THIAW is therefore advised TO SCORE ANYTIME at 12/1.
The German centre-back has scored three times in 20 league matches this season and is averaging 0.76 shots per game.
Dan Burn is worth consideration but having only returned to the bench last weekend after a spell out injured he isn't someone to back before team sheets are out. In any case he's been less of a threat this season, having only three attempts in 15 league appearances.
Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (29/1/26)
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