Liverpool v Chelsea tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Liverpool take on Chelsea in the biggest clash of the Premier League season so far. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, and wants the visitors onside.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 5/6 (Betfair, BetVictor)
1.5pts Chelsea to win Draw no Bet at 23/20 (MansionBet)
What a cracking game this should be.
Alex Keble’s deep dive into the tactical approaches of both Jurgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel is a must-read this week, highlighting some really crucial findings.
In his conclusion, Alex says he is expecting this game between Liverpool and Chelsea to be a tight and cagey affair with few goals, and I couldn’t agree more.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Liverpool 29/20 | Draw 23/10 | Chelsea 15/8
Liverpool have made a good start to the new campaign, and are expected to be back to a full complement defensively for this game.
If Andy Robertson and Fabinho come back into the Reds’ starting line-up, that means they will be able to field five of the back six from their title winning campaign (Alisson, TAA, VvD, Robertson, Fabinho), something they barely managed to do at all last season.
Defensively they will be better, and though they have given up chances to Norwich and Burnley in their two games so far, a more conservative approach should help them deal with the threat Chelsea pose.
The Blues rock up at Anfield needing to keep Liverpool’s attack quiet, with all of Mohamed Salah, Diogo Jota, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino off the mark for the season.
Fortunately for Chelsea fans, Tuchel’s side are the best defensive team in the Premier League. Period.
Since the German took charge at Stamford Bridge the Blues have done a remarkable job at limiting their opponents' scoring chances, allowing 0.68 xGA per game after his appointment last term.
So far this season, they have allowed 0.34 and 0.68 xGA in two league games, so there are no signs of them becoming easier to play against. Those last two outings were without N’Golo Kante, too.
Chelsea are a low-scoring team in general under Tuchel, opting for controlled possession instead of all-out attack, and that has led to them being involved in a lot of low-scoring games – especially the big ones.
In the Premier League under Tuchel, 14 of their 21 games have seen under 2.5 goals. Across other competitions, the Blues have seen all 12 of their matches go under the 2.5 line.
So, in total, 26 of Chelsea’s 33 games under Tuchel have gone under 2.5 goals – a staggering 79%.
No surprises then that I’m tipping up UNDER 2.5 GOALS in the game at Anfield.
All of Chelsea’s big games under Tuchel last season went under 2.5, including all matches in their runs to the Champions League and FA Cup finals. This is a big game that should follow the same pattern.
Liverpool and Chelsea are rated very similarly by the Infogol model – there is very little between them, so I can see the pair cancelling each other our, with defences being on top.
In terms of a winner of this clash, I am leaning towards Chelsea.
I just feel as though the Blues are the more well-rounded team and more complete team, especially now they have Romelu Lukaku leading the line.
They can potentially hurt Liverpool in a number of different ways, so I want to get them onside.
Given I’m expecting a low-scoring encounter, the draw comes into play massively, so by backing CHELSEA TO WIN DRAW NO BET we get security, as if the game does end all-square we get our money back.
A repeat of last season wouldn’t be a huge surprise, especially given the strides Chelsea have made in eight months under Tuchel.
Liverpool v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 5/6 (Betfair, BetVictor)
- 1.5pts Chelsea to win Draw no Bet at 23/20 (MansionBet)
Score prediction: Liverpool 0-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1615 BST (26/08/21)
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