Liverpool look to make it to the fifth round of the FA Cup for just the second time under Jurgen Klopp, with Cardiff the visitors to Anfield. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Over 3.5 Goals at 29/20 (Unibet)
Cardiff City have undergone something of a mini resurgence of late, arriving into this fixture on the back of successive wins in the Sky Bet Championship.
The Bluebirds are not enjoying their greatest season overall however, and though a victory over high-flying Nottingham Forest last weekend was impressive, a 1-0 win over bottom-of-the-league Barnsley in midweek was hardly inspirational, actually creating fewer chances than the Tykes (xG: BAR 0.87 – 0.62 CAR).
For Liverpool, this is their first competitive fixture for two weeks, the last a 3-1 victory over Crystal Palace in the Premier League.
It was a victory much-needed for the Reds as well, having dropped points thanks to draws to Tottenham and Chelsea, as well as a defeat to Leicester prior.
A second Premier League title is still mathematically possible for Jurgen Klopp’s men, nine points behind Manchester City but with a game in hand, and rebuilding momentum will be key at this juncture of the season.
Klopp has a surprisingly abysmal record in the FA Cup, the fifth round in 2019/20 the furthest Liverpool have made it in the competition under his management, but even should the German coach elect to field a second-string eleven, the Reds have enough talent throughout their squad to cause Cardiff plenty of problems.
Against Shrewsbury in the last round, arguably only four of the starting eleven could be considered regular starters, but the Reds still netted four times.
Even last season, though they only played two matches in this competition, Liverpool still managed to score six goals – as well as conceding four.
Liverpool FA Cup matches tend to be thrill-rides, and this could be no different.
Only Premier League matches involving Leicester have averaged more goals than matches involving Liverpool this season (3.50), while OVER 3.5 GOALS has landed in an astounding 59% of the Reds’ fixtures this term.
Against the Premier League’s lesser lights as well, Liverpool matches have been full of goals, their fixtures against Crystal Palace, Newcastle, Everton, Southampton, Watford and Brentford all seeing more than three goals.
Cardiff sit fifth in the Championship in terms of average match goals (2.82), and particularly when away from home do the Bluebirds tend to put on a show, matches away from the Cardiff City stadium averaging three goals per game.
With the fourth-worst defensive record in the Championship, expect Liverpool to make light work of this Cardiff backline, irrelevant of the kind of starting line-up Klopp selects.
The Reds have found the net four or more times on seven separate occasions already this season, and it would not be a huge surprise were they to make that eight here.
With a second-string defence possibly in line to start though, there is hope for Cardiff in terms of getting on the scoresheet, in a game that should comfortably hit the four goal mark.
Liverpool v Cardiff score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Over 3.5 Goals at 29/20 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Liverpool 4-1 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Odds correct 1050 GMT (03/02/22)
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