Liverpool v Brighton tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Brighton travel to Anfield to take on high-flying Liverpool. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Brighton to be shown the most cards at 19/20 (Betway)
Liverpool continued their relentless march towards the final of every competition they're in with a 2-0 victory over Preston on Wednesday, but a quarter-final berth in the Carabao Cup now seems mundane after their 5-0 routing of Manchester United at Old Trafford last weekend.
Those five goals against Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men put them four clear in terms of most Premier League goals this season, and with just a point separating themselves and league-leaders Chelsea, it is difficult to see Jurgen Klopp’s side relenting against Brighton.
The Seagulls are themselves enjoying a good campaign, currently occupying fifth place in the league – their best ever start to a Premier League season, and by some way.
Graham Potter deserves plenty of credit for the job he has done at the Amex, but the early momentum they built up has deserted them somewhat, and Brighton are now winless in their last five in all competitions.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Liverpool 2/9 | Draw 21/4 | Brighton 12/1
Manchester City provided them with a humbling experience last weekend, racing into a 3-0 lead before the half-time whistle was blown, and though Potter’s men were much-improved after the break, scoring a goal of their own, City still managed to regain their three-goal cushion towards the end of the match.
A penalty shoot-out defeat to Leicester in the Carabao Cup quashed any hopes Brighton fans had of lifting the trophy, and now they have the unenviable task of a trip to Anfield to contend with.
Liverpool are not infallible, as Brentford demonstrated, but they are very good side, and it is difficult to see Brighton emerging from this match with little more than a defeat, the Reds’ price of 1/5 paying dividends to that.
Mark your card
There are still betting opportunities however, and the most appealing one comes in the card markets.
No team have amassed fewer bookings than Liverpool this season (nine), while only Newcastle have been shown more yellows than Brighton this season (22).
Game state is important when betting on these markets, so it is worth digging through Liverpool’s previous matches in search of patterns.
Liverpool have been shown six yellow cards at Anfield this season, three against Crystal Palace and three against Manchester City. We can immediately dismiss the City game as the level of competitiveness makes bookings more probable.
The Palace one is a bit of an outlier, but in their other two home fixtures, against Burnley and Chelsea, they were shown no yellow cards.
The fact that Chelsea played half of that match with 10 men is particularly relevant here, as it means Liverpool were in the clear ascendancy, just as they were against Burnley, and as such, received no yellow cards.
Away from home Liverpool have drawn with Brentford, but have won each of their four other matches by three goals or more – clearly the ascendants – and have received three yellows across five matches.
Liverpool are expected to be in the ascendancy in this game, and as such are not expected to pick up many cards.
Brighton, on the other hand, will need to be competitive if they are to come away from Anfield with anything, and that is certainly an area they have improved upon this term.
The Seagulls have been shown more yellow cards than their opponents in five of their nine Premier League matches, while for Liverpool that figure stands at just one in nine.
BRIGHTON TO BE SHOWN THE MOST CARDS is understandably short, but not as short as it probably should be given the evidence on offer. 19/20 appeals as a good price and is certainly worth getting on side.
Liverpool v Brighton best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Brighton to be shown the most cards at 19/20 (Betway)
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1640 BST (28/10/21)
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