Liverpool look to get back on track at home to an in-form Ajax side. James Cantrill picks out two best bets for the match.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Ajax Double Chance at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Steven Bergwijn to score anytime at 5/1 (Bet365)
Liverpool reached the Champions League final last campaign. En route to the Stade de France, the Reds only lost once, and that came at the San Siro.
In those 12 games, they scored 30 goals and conceded an average of 1.10 per game. This season, Jurgen Klopp’s side look comparatively meagre.
They were thrashed in Naples. Napoli scored four, generated an xG of 4.80, created nine (yes, NINE) big chances and missed five, including a penalty.
Napoli 4-1 Liverpool
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) September 7, 2022
• xG: 4.79 - 1.31
A remarkable Champions League victory for the Serie A side. #UCL pic.twitter.com/oms1JlZMq3
That defeat in Italy was the culmination of a poor start to the campaign. Liverpool have only won twice, dropping points to Fulham, Crystal Palace, Everton and Manchester United, only keeping two clean sheets in the process.
Based on their start to the season, taking AJAX DOUBLE CHANCE looks like a play.
The visitors have won their last seven games on the spin and have not conceded a goal in 450 minutes of competitive action, scoring 16 goals over that period.
Their European campaign got off to a perfect start as well, as they put four past Rangers in matchday one.
Ajax could name the same XI for their trip to Anfield. The hosts will be fresh having not played this weekend, and though they are blighted with injuries, will be bolstered by the return of Thiago.
The Spaniard will likely replace James Milner in midfield and should provide some much-needed control in possession.
At 5/1, I think STEVEN BERGWIJN’s price TO SCORE ANYTIME is too long. The Dutch winger has been in emphatic form this campaign, scoring seven in as many appearances in all competitions - an average of over a goal per 90 minutes.
The former Spurs man is averaging 1.58 shots on target per 90 and is beating the keeper with 75% of those efforts in the Eredivisie.
Operating on the left-hand side of a front three, Bergwijn could be directly opposing Trent Alexander-Arnold. His defending has come under some scrutiny this season.
Defensively he leaves a lot to be desired, with some lackadaisical antics costing his side some goals recently.
It was TAA’s man Vinicius Junior that scored in last seasons UCL final, he was also slacking for Julian Alvarez’s goal in the Community Shield Final. Aleksandar Mitrovic towered above him at the back post on EPL opening day and he just watched Jaden Sancho swivel and finish at Old Trafford.
Liverpool v Ajax score prediction and best bets
- 1.5pts Ajax Double Chance at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pts Steven Bergwijn to score anytime at 5/1 (Bet365)
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-3 Ajax (Sky Bet odds: 33/1)
Odds correct 1520 BST (12/09/22)
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