After delivering over 4.5 points of profit on Friday night, Joe Rindl has a best bet for Leicester's Europa League tie at Legia Warsaw.
1pt Leicester to win and BTTS 'Yes' at 13/5 (Bet365)
Leicester aren’t exactly hot right now.
Brendon Rodgers’ side have won just one of their past five games, sitting 13th in the Premier League with seven points from their first six games.
Their 2-2 home draw with Burnley last time out serves as the perfect summary of their season so far. Dominant in possession (67%) and creating the superior expected goals count (1.9 to 0.54), but a combination of poor finishing and sloppy defending turned a win into a draw.
It was the same old story in their Europa League opener, too. 2-0 up against Napoli after goals from Ayoze Perez and Harvey Barnes, Victor Osimhen struck twice for the visitors to steal a point at the King Power.
And if Osimhen’s late equaliser wasn’t damaging enough, star defensive-midfielder Wilfred Ndidi was sent off in injury time and will be unavailable for their trip to Poland to face Legia Warsaw in matchday two.
Still, at least their opponents are in similarly poor form.
Things haven’t been great for Legia Warsaw in the Polish 1 Liga. Legia currently sit 14th with only nine points from seven matches and their defensive vulnerabilities were exposed last weekend once again in a 3-2 home loss to Rakow.
The Europa League does serve as a welcome distraction. Legia edged out Spartak Moscow 1-0 on matchday one, thanks to a 91st-minute winner from substitute Lirim Kastrati.
In truth though, the Poles were second-best with just five attempts to Spartak’s 15.
And in the expected goals head-to-head they were also well short, their total xG of 1.13 was significantly below the Russians’ 1.94.
Legia Warsaw have only beaten an English side once in four attempts - against Blackburn in the 1995/96 Champions League group stages. If victory number two is to arrive this Thursday, it’s likely to come down to some heavy luck, and poor finishing from Leicester’s forwards.
On paper, Leicester should have this one in the bag. The Foxes reached the last 32 of this competition last season. For comparison, until this campaign, Legia had been dumped out in the UEL qualifying rounds in each of the past five seasons.
The win for the visitors looks secure but I also fancy a look at both teams finding the net.
Excluding the Community Shield, Leicester have kept just two clean sheets in all competitions this season, with five of their eight matches seeing Both Teams To Score land.
Legia themselves aren't exactly solid at the back and have seen their defence breached in five of their previous six games.
LEICESTER TO WIN AND BTTS ‘YES’ seems a steal at 13/5 with Bet365.
Score prediction: Legia Warsaw 1-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1630 BST (28/09/21)
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