Leeds vs Norwich betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Championship play-offs
1pt Kenny McLean to be shown a card at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Crysencio Summerville to be shown a card at 4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
BuildABet @ 20/1
- Over 3.5 goals
- Josh Sargent to score anytime
- Georginio Rutter to win 2+ fouls
- Shane Duffy 1+ total shot
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Home 3/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 9/2
Agg. score: Leeds 0-0 Norwich
You might describe the first leg as an intriguing battle but if you are being honest, literally nothing happened.
Only four matches in the Sky Bet Championship this term (play-offs included) have seen fewer shots or a lower combined xG.
Tom Carnduff told me that Daniel Farke had spent the week in between the final game and the first leg trying to rebuild morale around the camp as Leeds headed into the play-offs having taken just nine points from the last 27 on offer.
Having been told that, Leeds' performance at Carrow Road made a lot of sense, they looked tactically inept, just like a side that hadn’t properly prepared.
That said, the visitors played for a draw to take back to Elland Road and got one.
It will be interesting to see if they can get the home crowd onside with an early goal because a bit of play-off hoodoo is developing at Elland Road.
Leeds have lost both of their last two play-off campaigns in the semi-finals and the second leg was played at home on both occasions.
What are the best bets?
Play-off second legs can descend into chaos and this clash at Elland Road has that feel about it.
Last season's second leg between Middlesbrough and Coventry saw 10 yellow cards, in 2020/21 the meeting between Brentford and Bournemouth saw six yellows and a red card. I am hoping for something similar in West Yorkshire.
Jarrad Gillet has the whistle at Elland Road, a referee averaging just under five cards a game this term.
Between them, CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE, Georginio Rutter and Willy Gnonto draw 5.8 fouls a game.
KENNY MCLEAN will shoulder some of the responsibility of containing the trio on Thursday. The midfielder has picked up 11 bookings this term and at 4/1 looks a huge price TO BE SHOWN A CARD here.
Unsurprisingly, considering how often he gets kicked, Summerville has picked up seven cards this term, one of which came against Thursday’s opponents.
He is at 4/1 TO BE SHOWN A CARD which looks large considering his cynical form.
Team news
Georginio Rutter put in another meagre showing in Norfolk, although to be fair, he was operating as a false nine. Archie Gray also put in a uncharacteristically tepid performance playing as a number 10.
With Patrick Bamford ruled out of this one, Joel Piroe could come in upfront, with Rutter returning to midfield. Gray may replace Glen Kamara in defensive midfield or could even slot in at full back.
Daniel James is also pushing for a recall which could come at the expense of Willy Gnonto on the right.
As for the visitors, David Wagner may name the same XI as on Sunday.
The Canaries are sweating on the fitness of top goalscorer Josh Sargent, who hobbled off in the first leg with an ankle issue. Wagner is confident the American will start, Norwich’s boss also has not ruled out Ashley Barnes: “I don’t think there is a big chance, but we know Barnesy is Barnesy.”
Predicted line-ups
Leeds: Meslier; Byram, Rodon, Ampadu, Firpo; Gruev, Gray; Gnonto, Rutter, Summerville; Piroe
Norwich: Gunn; Stacey, Duffy, Gibson, Giannoulis; Nunez, McClean; Rowe, Sara, Sainz; Sargent
Match facts
- Leeds United have won both of their last two home games against Norwich City in all competitions; only from 1962 to 1972 have they ever won three in a row at home to the Canaries.
- The goalless draw in the first leg of this tie between Leeds United and Norwich City saw just 13 shots (7 Norwich, 6 Leeds) and 0.76 expected goals (0.51 Norwich, 0.25 Leeds). Only four Championship matches in 2023-24 (incl. play-offs) saw fewer shots, and only four had a lower total xG.
- Leeds United are looking to progress to a Football League play-off final for a fourth time, and first since 2007-08 in League One. However, the Whites have been eliminated at the semi-final stage in both of their last two play-off participations (2008-09 in League One, 2018-19 in the Championship), with both occasions seeing them play their second leg at home.
- In what is their third time in the Football League play-offs, Norwich are looking to reach the final for the third time, previously doing so in 2002 and 2015. Should they do so, they’ll be just the sixth team to reach the final in 100% of their appearances (min. 3 times).
- Leeds United have lost both of their last two home games, last losing more in a row at Elland Road in all competitions in March 2022 (4, all in the Premier League), and last doing so while competing outside of the top-flight in October 2017 (3 in a row).
- Norwich’s Josh Sargent has more goals (13) and goal involvements (14, 1 assist also) than any other player in the Championship in 2024, though has faced Leeds more often in English league without scoring than any other side (4 games, 302 minutes).
Odds correct at 2200 BST (15/05/24)
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