Football betting tips: Super Sunday
1pt Lisandro Martinez to be shown a card at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Dominic Calvert-Lewin to be shown a card at 19/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Martinez and Calvert-Lewin card double at 18/1 (Betway)
1pt Jayden Bogle 1+ shots on target at 11/4 (bet365)
Are Manchester United really as bad is as being made out? We could well find out on Sunday against a Leeds team who look the real deal.
Daniel Farke's side suffered their first Premier League defeat of the season last weekend but they were mightily impressive. The Whites took a deserved second-half lead at Emirates Stadium which unfortunately for them, combined with a triple substitution, sparked Arsenal into life.
They now head into Sunday's meeting with their old rivals as significant favourites; too short for my liking.
Two wins in all competitions this season has increased the pressure on Michael Carrick.
His team haven't been great this season, but the fine margins have gone against them. Without conceding 96th and 92nd-minute equalisers against Everton and Tottenham United would be level with fourth-placed Brentford on 10 points.
Then there was the baffling VAR decision to award Erling Haaland's offside goal in their defeat by the 10 men of Manchester City.
Reaction to anything United related is always overblown and once a narrative gets rolling it's hard to stop - especially when players start fuelling it...
Lisandro Martínez did NOT hold back after United's loss to Atletico 😬👀 pic.twitter.com/OGo25Pzd30
— Prime Video Sport UK (@primevideosport) October 13, 2026
The chosen stick to beat United with this season has been their low running stats, which twinned with a lack of central-midfield legs is apparently the only reason why they are failing to win matches.
They have certainly struggled for energy in the middle of the pitch, something hugely improved by the return to fitness of £70m summer signing CARLOS BALEBA.
He made his debut after an hour against Tottenham last weekend and United immediately improved. Then, despite the assertion in LISANDRO MARTINEZ's bizarre post-match interview, that improvement carried into their trip to Atletico Madrid. United were far more aggressive - something they got wrong and were punished for in the opening minute - and deserved at least a point, playing well until Leny Yoro was very harshly sent off.
Baleba's return is timely against such a physical opponent, but from a betting perspective it just provides an extra layer of uncertainty.
I'm not quite brave enough to take the visitors at 2/1 and if I was going to get involved in anything outcome-related it would be UNDER 2.5 GOALS at 13/10 or BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' at 6/4.
Both these clubs have seen four of their six league games go unders. BTTS 'no' been another regular winner too, landing in four of Man United's nine fixtures in all competitions and three of Leeds' eight.
For a contest that is likely to be scrappy and hard fought, they have a good chance, but this game just feels tricky to call.
Enough about what doesn't make the staking plan and on to what does, starting with MARTINEZ being backed TO BE SHOWN A CARD at 4/1.
The Argentine's emotional nature spilled over this week and he has since apologised to ensure he plays on Sunday.
He could well be involved in a 90-minute wrestling match with DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN. The Leeds striker is averaging 1.06 FOULS WON, 2.11 FOULS COMMITTED, 0.53 CARDS per 90 this season, already going in the book on three occasions.
He is also backed TO BE SHOWN A CARD at 19/5, with the duo paired in an 18/1 CARD DOUBLE.
Our chances are further improved by Harry Maguire's injury issues, whether he plays despite not being fully fit or if he misses out entirely.
Another player angle I like is JAYDEN BOGLE to have 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET at 11/4.
Bogle has done so in three of his last four matches, hitting the target five times in total. The right wing-back is a huge attacking threat, operating more like a number 10 when Leeds have the ball, with right sided centre-back James Justin sliding over to cover as a conventional full-back.
Man United are struggling at left-back in the absence of Luke Shaw and Patrick Dorgu, which BOGLE can exploit.
Elsewhere BALEBA's intensity has been clear in his 97 minutes of action, making nine recoveries, COMMITTING three FOULS, three tackles and being fouled twice already.
At a fair bit of odds-against for 2+ FOULS COMMITTED he is worth including in a bet builder, with Super Sub key to his inclusion as given he's returning from injury it's unlikely he'll play much more than an hour.
Odds correct 12:30 BST (16/10/26)
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