Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Ethan Ampadu 1+ total shots at 6/4 (bet365)
I'm not entirely sure where the Leeds performance came from at Manchester City. I'm not entirely sure Leeds know either.
Daniel Farke's men were battered in the first-half to go 2-0 down but tactical tweaks at the break saw them battling back to level things at 2-2 - Phil Foden's late strike inflicting yet another defeat.
That's the way to go forward. Keep the back three with Jaka Bijol in the middle and a front pairing of either Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Lukas Nmecha or Calvert-Lewin and Noah Okafor/Wilfried Gnonto.
The problem is, knowing Farke's track record, he will revert to a 4-3-3 here.
Chelsea should secure victory given the vast difference in the two sides' position in the Premier League table. The gap stands at 14 points after just 13 games played.
Leeds have also lost all four games against those in the top five - three of those seeing their opponents scoring at least three.
I was going to settle on the Chelsea win at a short price of 3/4 but the team news opens up some potential value in the players markets.
At 6/4, I'm siding with ETHAN AMPADU 1+ TOTAL SHOTS. This is just for an effort classified as a shot, it doesn't have to be on target.
He's coming up against his former side but that's little to do with the pick. Hardly prolific in the shots area in the past yet he's going to have to contribute going forward given other absentees.
Typically the defensive member of the midfield trio, Ilia Gruev should do that if he's involved again. The absence of Sean Longstaff and Anton Stach takes away a big chunk of Leeds' attacking threat from the middle of the pitch.
Ampadu had a shot in that defeat at the Etihad and that made it five league games in which he's done so this season.
There will be a demand from the home crowd for some attacking intent given the rivalry between the two sides and recent results. Simply sitting back and hoping for the best won't do.
Leeds' best option is to repeat that set-up from the second-half on Saturday. If, and it's a big if it feels, they do opt for that, they should have a better chance of securing something.
With that uncertainty, I'm happier siding with Ampadu to hit his low line in the shots market.
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (01/12/25)
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