Watford travel up north to face a Leeds side still looking for their first win of the season. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Leeds to win at 4/5 (Mansion Bet)
1.5pts Over 3.5 Cards at 5/6 (Unibet)
Leeds are without a win in six matches in their second season back in the top flight, sitting third from bottom with three points.
A team that drew just five matches last season, adopting an all-or-nothing approach, Leeds have already drawn three this campaign, held to a point against Everton, Burnley and Newcastle, teams Marcelo Bielsa’s men picked up 15 point against last season.
Second season syndrome then looks take have taken a firm hold over Leeds United, but it is not all doom and gloom around Elland Road, or at least, it shouldn’t be.
Last season Leeds sat behind only Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea and Manchester United in terms of shots taken per game, and while this season they currently sit a place lower on that particular metric, they are actually averaging more shots per game – 14.2 to 13.7.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Leeds 8/11 | Draw 29/10 | Watford 7/2
The quality of the shots isn’t as good, their Expected Goals For (xGF) per game average of 1.17 attesting to that, but Leeds are still one of the most front-foot teams in the league, and sooner or later their fortunes will change.
Against West Ham last weekend indeed, they played well for large portions of the match, controlling the pattern of the game and looking dangerous on the counter, even without Patrick Bamford.
There is a long way to go this season and Leeds will win their fair share of matches, they just need a result to kick-start their campaign, and what better match to get it in than against a Watford side who have won just one of their last five?
The Hornets failed to capitalise on their good start to the season – beating Aston Villa 3-2 – and but for coming up against Norwich, arguably the worst team in the division, things could have been looking a worse for Xisco Munoz.
That victory stopped the rot after two successive defeats, but a 3-1 loss to Stoke in the Carabao Cup, followed by a somewhat fortunate draw with Newcastle – the Magpies creating much more, and better, opportunities – means Watford’s position is precarious.
The Hornets may have scored one more goal than Leeds this season, but they have been fortunate to do so according to Expected Goals, recording the third-lowest attacking process in the division, creating chances equating to just 1.12 xGF per game.
There is a perception that Leeds’ standout performances come against the top teams, going toe-to-toe with the league’s best and finest, but in fact it was very much the opposite last term, Leeds really excelling against the division’s poorer teams.
Seven of Leeds’ eight home wins last season came against teams that finished in the bottom twelve, failing to beat any of the top six at Elland Road, while seven of their ten away wins came against teams that finished in the bottom half of the table.
Also, just as an extra incentive, Leeds won every single match last season when they were priced up at odds-on, and at a price of 4/5, expect LEEDS to make their presence felt against a poor Watford team.
Mark your card
No team has been shown more yellow cards than these two this season, 14 apiece, while Leeds’ total of 14 yellow cards shown to the opposition can be bettered only by Watford’s 15.
Matches involving Leeds this season have averaged 4.67 yellow cards, while Watford games have averaged a league high of 4.83.
Also, only three of the 12 matches these two have been involved in this season have seen fewer than four yellow cards, which makes the price of 5/6 about OVER 3.5 CARDS worth siding with.
Leeds v Watford best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Leeds to win at 4/5 (Mansion Bet)
- 1.5pts Over 3.5 Cards at 5/6 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Leeds 3-1 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1620 BST (29/09/21)
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