Leeds, fresh off a 7-0 thrashing at Man City, welcome an Arsenal team in good form. Jake Osgathorpe assesses the game, selecting his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 6/5 (BetVictor)
Leeds are reeling after a 7-0 thrashing at the Etihad in midweek, which was an incredibly bad display from the Whites (xG: MCI 3.29 - 0.26 LEE).
Marcelo Bielsa's side have been hit by injuries to key players this season, and that has contributed to their poor results, with Leeds now having won just one of their last seven league games.
The drop off in underlying process from last season to this season has been stark and is certainly alarming.
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Leeds 5/2 | Draw 5/2 | Arsenal 21/20
From averaging 1.63 xGF (Expected Goals For) per game last term, Leeds have averaged 1.23 through 17 games of this season, while their xGA (Expected Goals Against) per game average of 1.84 is up on last season's 1.72.
In total, the 2021/22 Leeds team is around 0.5 xG per game worst than 20/21 Leeds, which works out at around 19 xG over a full season.
Straight away then, you may be thinking; "Why not back Arsenal then?"
Well, while the Gunners are in the top four, their away form and process is atrocious - in short, they cannot be trusted away from The Emirates.
On their travels Arsenal have won just two of eight, losing five, with their away xG process second worst only to Norwich.
What is key though, and fairly consistent, is the fact that Mikel Arteta's side don't create many chances away from home, averaging just 0.79 xGF per game.
So, while we can't trust Arsenal on the road, and we definitely can't trust Leeds in general given their process and injury issues, we can perhaps trust this being a low-scoring game, with UNDER 2.5 GOALS appealing.
Yes, Leeds' last three games have seen four, five and seven goals, but in the eight games prior, under 2.5 had copped six times.
At Elland Road, Leeds have been much more cautious than last season, with four of their last five seeing fewer than three goals, and it isn't hard to see why given they have allowed just 0.93 xGA per game in those home matches.
Factor in that they just got hammered 7-0 and will likely form back into a more conservative shape, and that Arsenal have struggled all season to generate chances on their travels, and the Under 2.5 Goals should give us a real run for our money.
Leeds v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 6/5 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Leeds 0-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (16/12/21)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
