Football betting tips: Premier League 26/27 outright
5pts Leeds to finish in the top 10 at 9/4 (General)
2.5pts Leeds to finish in the top 6 at 9/1 (General)
There are nine clubs with new managers ahead of the 26/27 Premier League season and nine teams competing in Europe.
With all this churn and change and the challenges European football brings, this season could spring a surprise or two.
So, who’s best avoided and where’s the value in the TO FINISH IN THE TOP HALF and TO FINISH IN THE TOP 6 markets?
Premier League Top 6 Finish odds (Sky Bet)
- Arsenal: 1/100
- Manchester City: 1/14
- Liverpool: 1/8
- Manchester United: 1/5
- Chelsea: 2/7
- Tottenham: Evs
- Aston Villa: 11/8
- Brighton: 4/1
- Newcastle: 9/2
- Bournemouth: 13/2
- Everton: 7/1
- Brentford: 15/2
- Nottingham Forest: 8/1
- Leeds: 9/1
- Bar: 10/1
Odds correct 10:30 (12/08/26)
Managerial merry-go-round
Of that bunch of clubs who have had a change in the dugout this summer, NEWCASTLE are one of a few who aren’t competing in Europe but who will have European ambitions this season, if you get my drift.
Eddie Howe was replaced by Matthias Jaissle. The latter is a ‘highly regarded coach’ and that is the only general, slightly nonsensical insight I can offer on him.
But the fact he is already tempering expectations this season says an awful lot. He said: "We are in that transition phase, the players who have left were great characters, great players, experienced players. This is now a vacuum.”
They’ve lost Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes, Anthony Gordon and Kieran Trippier this summer. Plus, everyone on their wishlist appears to be spurning their advances.
I wouldn’t be in a hurry to back them in the top six market, even if they are still propped up by Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund.
Another team with a new gaffer, who aren’t competing in Europe but who will have European ambitions this season is NOTTINGHAM FOREST.
I know Jake Osgathorpe's hot on their chances and there’s a lot to like as they’ve added a top coach to an already stacked squad.
A lot of the players who helped Forest to a 7th place finish in 24/25 are still at the club.
Morgan Gibbs-White has had a hand in 34 goals across the last two league seasons. If they can keep hold of him, it’ll be their best bit of business of the summer. Perhaps with the exception of appointing Oliver Glasner.
Glasner oversaw the most successful stint in Crystal Palace’s history across the last two seasons. Lack of investment in the squad at Selhurst Park ultimately pushed him out of the door but that won’t be an issue at Forest.
Evangelos Marinakis can splash the cash. But his tumultuous tenure at the City Ground is enough to cast some doubt over Forest this campaign.
Last season, Mr Marinakis hired four permanent managers - which is a top flight record - and although this hire ’em fire ‘em approach ultimately kept them in the division, it wouldn’t be a surprise if their owner did something rash.
Perils of European football
BOURNEMOUTH, Sunderland and Crystal Palace will be competing in the Europa League this season.
This will be the Cherries' first time in Europe, and coupled with a managerial change, the 13/2 about them to finish in the Premier League top 6 doesn’t appeal.
It’s worth noting in 23/24, Spurs finished 5th then dropped to 17th in 24/25. They then won the Europa League to qualify for the Champions League in 25/26, then finished 17th again last season.
Manchester United finished 8th in 23/24 but won the FA Cup and qualified for the Europa League. The following season they dropped to 15th. Forest finished in 7th in 24/25 and dropped to 16th the season after.
Balancing European football with the top flight is no mean feat and if the likes of Spurs and Manchester United have struggled with it, Bournemouth certainly could this term.
SUNDERLAND could as well. The Black Cats are fourth favourites for relegation at 3/1, behind the three promoted sides in the betting.
Their approach of signing under-valued European pedigree worked a charm last season as they finished in 7th, comfortably the best of the promoted trio.
The issue is, they were the biggest overachievers in terms of underlying data, and you can’t outrun that stuff forever.
Only Burnley and Wolves picked up fewer expected-points (xPTS) but even more concerning is the fact Regis Le Bris side were the only top half team to finish with a minus goal-difference (-6).
Last season, 10 of their 14 wins came by a one-goal margin, and they scored four injury-time goals to pick up 10 points. While those numbers do epitomise their never say die attitude, variance will come back to bite them eventually.
CRYSTAL PALACE are the final team in the Europa League but I’d be looking more towards the 6/1 about them to be relegated then their price of 5/2 to finish in the top half.
Even with Glasner, the Eagles won the FA Cup in 24/25 to qualify for the Europa Conference League and finished 12th in the league that season. They went on to win the Conference League the following season but dropped three places domestically.
Plus, former sporting director Dougie Freedman has followed Glasner out of the door this summer, he was the mastermind behind recruitment.
With Freedman gone, Palace probably won’t have the same success in the transfer market which is why they could regress this season.
BRIGHTON will be competing in the Conference League.
In 22/23, the Seagulls finished 6th to qualify for the Europa League and regressed to 11th the following campaign.
They are such a well run club, they’ll have learnt from that.
Manager Fabian Hurzeler is pretty settled as well, having ridden out a couple of patchy spells. But in terms of the Premier League betting, I just think there’s a better option to be had.
Leeds to go marching on
LEEDS won’t be competing in Europe this season and crucially they have real stability in the dugout.
This will be Daniel Farke’s fourth season at the club. After winning the Championship title in his second term, he guided them to 47 points and a 14th place finish in their Premier League return last campaign.
It’s almost forgotten that he almost lost his job this time last year though.
There were serious, and reasonable, question marks over his ability to manage in the top flight.
After winning the second tier title twice with Norwich, he’d tried and failed in his two previous attempts at England’s top table, finishing 20th in both seasons.
After playing expansive, possession-based football to great success in the Championship, Farke had to rip up his own rule book and reinvent his Leeds side last summer.
The club went big in the transfer market, literally. Farke went more direct and made his side harder to beat, epitomised as they drew the second most games in the league (14).
One criticism was their failure to take their chances and put games to bed. Leeds underperformed their expected goals (xG) by -5.2. But by signing of Harry Wilson, a player who’s outperformed his xG in each of his last four Premier League campaigns, Leeds have directly addressed that issue.
The goalkeeper was another problem position at Elland Road. Only the bottom four conceded more goals than Leeds last season (56) but the acquisition of James Trafford will help fix that.
Trafford prevented +2.53 goals last term and +12.85 the season before in the Championship. Compare the former with Karl Darlow, Leeds’ keeper last season, who was in the negative with -1.50 goals.
Having sorted the issues at both ends of the pitch, the prices about Leeds TO FINISH IN THE TOP HALF and TOP SIX are worth a tout.
Odds correct at 14:00 BST (14/08/26)
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