League One predictions: 1-24 predictions for 2025/26

24. EXETER

While they finished 16th last season, Gary Caldwell's side sat 22nd on underlying data, squeezing out some results against poor teams late in the campaign to ensure survival. With one of the smallest budgets in the division, it's hard to see things turning around.

23. STEVENAGE

A solid mid-table opening campaign under Alex Revell rarely ever looked like being anything other that. They only won four of their last 19 matches though, and two of their last 12, with all four of those victories coming against the now-relegated teams.

There hasn't been an enormous amount of change in the summer to suggest much will be different on the pitch come August.

22. WIMBLEDON

Promoted via the League Two play-offs largely thanks to a strong defensive record (35 was the best in the division by 10 goals) the Dons at least have a good base to work from as they enter the third tier, despite losing standout on-loan goalkeeper Owen Goodman.

They over-performed slightly according to xG data but still put up very impressive numbers. Goals were a big problem though, with only two other top-half teams scoring fewer than their 56, and Matty Stevens (17) scoring almost a third of those - nobody else scored more than six - and he only scored once in the final 19 games of the season too.

Not enough goals in the team. It'll be a struggle.

21. NORTHAMPTON

The Cobblers took 30 points from 25 games under Kevin Nolan to edge to safety last term after taking 21 from 21 under Jon Brady. Over the season as a whole they displayed the second-worst xG process, with only relegated Bristol Rovers worse.

Lots of player turnover this summer, including losing established starters Mitch Pinnock and Aaron McGowan, makes it tricky to forecast their chances but ultimately it looks like another tough season is ahead.

20. PORT VALE

Darren Moore has so far shown he is very capable when managing one of the strongest squads in the division (West Brom, Doncaster, Sheffield Wednesday and Port Vale) but struggles when faced with relegation battles, sacked by Huddersfield early in his tenure and suffering relegation with Wednesday and Vale.

In a division with plenty of established clubs, survival will be a big ask. They've made plenty of signings and will need them to make an impact after being promoted on fine margins.

19. BURTON

A miraculous survival under Gary Bowyer (W9 D8 L10) was secured through a points per game average that would have given Burton 60 over a full season. They did trend back closer to the norm in the closing weeks, collecting 15 points from their final 13 games.

Jon Dadi Bodvarsson and to a lesser degree Kyran Lofthouse were important January signings, and while the latter has returned permanently the former has not, with Rumarn Burrell's exit leaving the Brewers further short in attack. The departure of experienced keeper Max Crocombe is another blow that leaves Bowyer with a big challenge to back up last season.

18. PETERBOROUGH

Having been poor for most of last season, a couple of decent little runs just when they needed them took Peterborough clear of danger.

Darren Ferguson's side failed to win any of their last eight fixtures, so enter the new campaign with no momentum. That has been made worse by the loss of Kwame Poku, Ricky Jade-Jones, Emmanuel Fernandez and Malik Mothersille. This could be a very hard season.

17. MANSFIELD

Mansfield were very unfortunate to finish as low as they did last season, creating lots of chances but failing to take them. A small squad refresh for a stable club with a long-term experienced manager in Nigel Clough should see them safely into mid-table.

16. BRADFORD

Bradford have done some smart business to stabilise in the division after finally getting out of League Two. With an experienced manager at the helm too, they'll be fine.

15. DONCASTER

Doncaster played the loan market well over the last couple of seasons under Grant McCann, so it makes sense to trust that the players they have brought in via the same means this summer will do well for them in their first campaign back at League One level.

Matty Pearson is a good addition at centre-half to help them adjust to the level.

14. ROTHERHAM

Rookie manager, little transfer activity, a likely season of transition. It's hard to make a case for anything other than mid-table with an outside chance of the top six if things come together.

13. WIGAN

There were a lot of draws (W2 D7 L2) but Ryan Lowe made Wigan tough to beat and improved the defence last term, with the Latics conceding only six goals in their final 10 matches, and going unbeaten in their last eight. If they can solve the goal shortage issues that ultimately cost Shaun Maloney his job, they could push for the play-offs.

Paul Mullin is Wigan's marquee signing, but to this point hasn't managed to score goals in League One. Callum Wright, who joined Plymouth shortly after Lowe left for Preston, and Dara Costolloe could make a real difference in the final third.

12. LINCOLN

Lincoln possibly warranted higher than mid-table last season, but couldn't quite build on their strong 23/24 under Michael Skubala after losing key loan players.

There are question marks this summer having lost their two standout defenders, but Sonny Bradley is a smart signing to complement a young, developing squad. A play-off push isn't out of the question.

11. LEYTON ORIENT

It's hard to shake the feeling that last season was Orient's one big chance. They were an overperformer according to the data and have lost several key players and loanees. It's great the club have kept hold of Richie Wellens, but by his own admission following their play-off final defeat this may well be a season of rebuilding for him.

10. WYCOMBE

Wycombe never recovered from Matt Bloomfield's departure for Luton last season, suffering a massive tail-off.

They were sitting top after 15 games with a points per game average of 2.4. Over the remainder of the season's 31 fixtures, stretching back to December 1, they dropped to 1.51 ppg, gradually getting worse over time, taking just 1.2 ppg over the final nine games to miss out on automatic promotion.

Mike Dodds remains an unknown as a manager, and has had no positive impact so far.

9. PLYMOUTH

In the second half of last season Plymouth sat 13th in the Championship. Over the last 10 games they sat seventh - winning five and drawing once. There was plenty to build on if they could keep their manager and the core of the squad together - they haven't.

Tom Cleverley at least has less of a job on turning round a team that had struggled to win games for the best part of 18 months before now-Schalke boss Miron Muslic put some very good foundations in place, but key departures and some gambles among their new arrivals means there are plenty of questions around Argyle.

8. CARDIFF

Being in the third tier for the first time in 22 years will take some serious adjusting to for Cardiff.

Brian Barry-Murphy is the 14th full-time manager in 14 years under Vincent Tan's ownership; nine of those lasted less than a year. The Bluebirds' chairman's popularity has reached a new low, especially as local hero Gareth Bale heads a consortium attempting to purchase the club from him. While Bale could be their saviour in the long-term, the short-term impact may mean limited summer transfer spend.

Lots of good things have been said and written about Barry-Murphy but there are simply too many unknowns as he inherits a team that won just two of their final 17 Championship fixtures to limp to relegation. They desperately need a good start.

7. BARNSLEY

There are lots of unknowns at Barnsley as Conor Hourihane enters his first full season as a manager and with no notable signings other than veteran frontman David McGoldrick, it's mainly been vibes so far - but those vibes have been good.

Focused on trimming down a bloated squad and drilling a team into a new formation after an atrocious defensive record last season, it's hard not to be encouraged by what the new coaching staff are saying.

But so much will depend on ins and outs throughout the rest of the transfer window - between fifth and 15th feels very possible.

6. BLACKPOOL

Steve Bruce has had a massive impact at Bloomfield Road, with his W18 D13 L9 record (1.675 ppg) equating to 77 points for a full season. The Tangerines' only defeats after November 9 (their final 33 games) came against strong third-tier opposition - Orient (twice), Bolton, Wrexham (twice), Stockport and Birmingham. The one outlier was a stoppage-time dead-rubber defeat at Rotherham.

They have clearly been well backed by the ownership with experienced players like Fraser Horsfall, Michael Ihiekwe and George Honeyman, who won't come cheap, arriving, and Jordan Brown a standout signing.

Bruce needed to fix the defence and may have, but losing both Rob Apter and Sonny Carey means creatively they may be a little short.

5. READING

This is the first summer in a long time Reading are operating without financial restrictions after finally ridding themselves of Dai Yongge, with former Wycombe owner Rob Couhig coming in.

They've already made some encouraging moves in the transfer market - especially the signing of Paudie O'Connor - and there'll be more to come. Lewis Wing and Joel Pereira signing new contracts is huge as well.

4. BOLTON

Even with a poor season where they just gave Ian Evatt one year too many and things had gone stale, Bolton still finished eighth.

Write off the latter part of last term under Steven Scumacher as he was getting to grips with things. He's a good manager and with the club having done smart business through the spine of the team, and finally adding some pace out wide, they should be a real threat.

3. STOCKPORT

Stockport are incredibly consistent under the ever reliable Dave Challinor, who can still boast the stat of having always finished at least in the play-offs when completing a season managing a club.

But for a small wobble around the new year the Hatters were the clear second best team to Birmingham last season. Losing both Will Collar and Fraser Horsfall does leave a big hole, and Tanto Olaofe has gone to Charlton but Malik Mothersille looks a good replacement.

With so many question marks around other clubs, they should be trusted to deliver another strong season.

2. LUTON

It came just too late but Luton really shouldn't have been relegated from the Championship. W6 D3 L3 in their last 12 games, relegated on goal difference and with xG data that had them as a mid-table team, no huge overhaul was needed at Kenilworth Road this summer.

Even with some necessary squad reshaping this summer, they should have one of, if not the, strongest teams in the division. Matt Bloomfield showed at Wycombe that he knows how to manage in League One and was getting to grips with things before running out of time in April, so should be confident of getting his side back into the second tier at the first time of asking.

1. HUDDERSFIELD

Lee Grant has a good reputation as a coach working under Kieran McKenna at Ipswich and Huddersfield have made some excellent summer signings, adding to what was already a strong squad.

Last season only two players made 30+ starts (Ben Wiles and Callum Marshall), a remarkable inconsistency in selection that surely cannot be replicated this term, with just a little stability likely to work wonders.

With first time managers there is always a bit of guesswork, but there is enough there for me to think that having been well supported by their owner, Town will shake off last season's forgettable first campaign back in the third tier and bounce back into the Championship.

And according to chairman Kevin Nagle it's going to be "Northern football" all the way at the John Smith's, sorry 'Accu' Stadium this season...

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