Liam Kelly looks for more winners from the third round of La Liga matches, picking out two best bets for the weekend.
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Football betting tips: La Liga
1.5pts Over 12.5 Real Sociedad shots v Elche at Evens (Unibet)
1pt Valencia to take the most corners v Atlético Madrid at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
Valencia v Atlético Madrid
- Kick-off time: 21:00 BST, Monday
- TV channel: Premier Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Valencia 3/1 | Draw 23/10 | Atlético Madrid 1/1
Atlético Madrid's negative approach to their home game against Villarreal was, frankly, an affront to football.
They were deservedly punished, beaten comfortably in a game where they showed little endeavour, sitting back in a 5-3-2 shape and inviting the visitors possession.
Although it would be nice to see Diego Simeone's side change just a little, it's unlikely to happen soon, especially as they head to the Mestalla to face Valencia.
Despite a 1-0 defeat in Bilbao last weekend, Valencia acquitted themselves rather well (xG: BIL 1.05 - 1.09 VAL), ultimately missing the cutting edge after enjoying much of the ball against Athletic Club.
Therefore, it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see the hosts dominate the ball here. With that in mind, the difference between the price for most corners taken is too big.
Indeed, VALENCIA MOST CORNERS TAKEN is a bet at a standout 13/8 with Sky Bet.
Despite a 3-0 win in Getafe in the season opener, Atléti were under pressure for a long time in that away game. Valencia, even without star striker Hugo Duro, represent a bigger threat than a pragmatic Getafe side.
With threats such as Samu Castillejo and attacking full-backs that can expose Simeone's current shape, backing Valencia corners could be the angle in.
Score prediction: Valencia 1-1 Atlético Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1500 BST (18/08/22)
Elche v Real Sociedad
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Premier Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Elche 5/2 | Draw 21/20 | Real Sociedad 6/5
A vastly improved Barcelona proved far too good for Real Sociedad last Sunday, winning 4-1 at the Anoeta in taking fashion.
Imanol Alguacil's side didn't play particularly badly against Barca, but, heading into this game at Elche, their opening game in Cádiz might be a better guide to their current level.
Despite winning that game by a narrow 1-0 margin, Real Sociedad completely dominated as visitors, recording 2.32 expected goals for (xGF) from 15 shots.
Alexander Isak's move to Newcastle is complete, which would be enough to put me off the odds-against available for the away team, but it might enhance the chances of the selection.
Not having a focal point of the attack could encourage shots from further out if Real struggle to break Elche down, and OVER 12.5 REAL SOCIEDAD SHOTS is a solid bet at even money.
In truth, the pick would have been value with Isak, too. Elche have long been one of the worst defensive teams in La Liga and look susceptible once again this term.
Elche shipped 17 shots equating to 3.81 xG at Real Betis before allowing 1.17 xG on 12 shots at home to fellow relegation contenders Almeria last week.
This will be a much tougher task than last time, with Real Sociedad expected to test the Elche goal regularly.
Score prediction: Elche 0-2 Real Sociedad (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 1230 BST (26/08/22)
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