Liam Kelly searches for more value in the next round of La Liga fixtures, looking to continue a profitable spell.
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Football betting tips: La Liga
2.5pts Over 12.5 Sevilla shots v Osasuna at 4/5 (Unibet)
2pts Real Madrid to beat Atlético Madrid at 4/5 (General)
Sevilla v Osasuna
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: LaLigaTV
- Sevilla 17/20 | Draw 23/10 | Osasuna 18/5
We’ve had success both fading and backing Sevilla in this column recently, but they are becoming more difficult to get a read on with some improved results.
My suspicions about them still remain, so the odds-on about a home win is avoidable in this one, even if Sevilla are beginning to make the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán fortress once again.
Four consecutive home league wins have come against fairly poor sides, though. Osasuna are not quite at that level, but they do struggle to make an impact away as visitors.
With that in mind, OVER 12.5 SEVILLA SHOTS makes appeal here.
Sevilla have been far from shot-shy in their recent home games, a clear sign of their renewed confidence. Across the last four home fixtures mentioned, Jorge Sampaoli's side have averaged 16.25 shots per game.
Despite almost throwing away the home advantage built in the Europa League in midweek, Sevilla should find comfort in familiar surroundings and get shots away against Osasuna.
Score prediction: Sevilla 2-1 Osasuna (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Real Madrid v Atlético Madrid
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV Channel: ITV, Viaplay Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Real Madrid 3/4 | Draw 13/5 | Atlético Madrid 18/5
Read the full match preview here
Sitting 16 points from the top of the table, Diego Simeone's men are no longer a defensive force to be reckoned with, allowing 27.7 expected goals against (xGA) in conceding 17 actual goals across 22 La Liga matches.
Atléti's recent run of good results is not really reflective of their performances, either, relying on some individual brilliance in a stretch of four wins in their last five.
As a result, REAL MADRID look the value play at a general 4/5, especially with this derby being held at the Bernabéu.
Real remain unbeaten on their home patch in the league, averaging 2.47 expected goals for (xGF) and 0.99 xGA per game.
Tuesday's win showed just how devastating they can be going forward, so with Atléti's level dropping, Carlo Ancelotti's side should emulate their 3-1 Copa del Rey win from a month ago.
They simply have no choice if they wish to close in on Barcelona.
Score prediction: Real Madrid 3-1 Atlético Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (23/02/23)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (24/02/23)
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