Kyle Walker's absence may cost Manchester City the Premier League title
Jarrod Bowen has long been linked with a move to Liverpool and his brace for West Ham against Manchester City titled the title race back towards Anfield with the prospect of a final day showdown now a very real one.
If Liverpool beat Southampton on Tuesday, there will be just one point between the two rivals with just one round of fixtures left to play.
City had won five Premier League games in-a-row before kick-off, but their struggles at the London Stadium on Sunday were somewhat predictable given who was missing from their lineup.
Injury has potentially ended Kyle Walker’s season early with the 31-year-old notable in his absence against a West Ham team quick to exploit space in behind.
Bowen was the biggest beneficiary of Walker’s absence as he twice exposed Manchester City’s high line to score both West Ham goals in a 2-2 draw.
Without Walker’s recovery pace to mask any weaknesses, Pep Guardiola’s team were vulnerable. Even when West Ham didn’t score, there were instances of uncertainty at the back - like the one that saw Ederson and Aymeric Laporte get in each other’s way.
Guardiola should have foreseen these issues.
After all, it was only a few weeks ago that Real Madrid cause City similar problems in the Champions League while Walker was sidelined. Manchester City conceded six goals to the Spanish giants over two legs, but kept a clean sheet in the 72 minutes that their first-choice right back was on the pitch.
Walker vital in this City defence
Walker’s importance to City is clear in the statistics.
The England international has averaged eight ball recoveries per 90 minutes for City in the Premier League this season. This only places Walker in the 52nd percentile for ball recoveries in Europe’s ‘Big Five’ leagues, but this is still a high number when taking into account how much of the ball Manchester City usually claim (67.9% in the Premier League this season).
Against teams with pace and direct runners in attacking areas, City are overly reliant on pressure on the ball in the centre of the pitch to stop their high line from being exposed.
The advanced positioning of their centre backs allows Guardiola to suffocate opponents, but without Walker to provide a safety net it also gives them a potential outlet.
The absence of Walker also denies Cancelo the opportunity to drive into central midfield like he has so frequently done this season.
Oleksandr Zinchenko had this freedom from the left back position against West Ham, having more touches of the ball (113) than anyone besides Rodri (115), but this only further accentuated the lack of recovery pace across the City backline.
Fernandinho a problem at centre-back?
Of course, Manchester City also weren’t helped in this respect by the presence of Fernandinho in central defence.
Indeed, the Brazilian looked every one of his 37 years against the direct running of Michail Antonio and Bowen who registered a combined six successful dribbles.
Guardiola might have reasoned that Fernandinho would offer experience over Nathan Ake, but a lack of acceleration led to a lack of sharpness in decision-making.
But it is Walker who is the statistical pivot for Manchester City. By almost measure, they are a better team with the 31-year-old on the pitch.
West Ham 2-2 Man City
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) May 15, 2022
xG: 0.82-2.60
Lukasz Fabianski may never have to buy a drink in Liverpool after saving Riyad Mahrez's late penalty... pic.twitter.com/O5Pu3pbP8X
City have allowed 0.44 Expected Goals (xG) per 90 minutes with Walker in the Premier League this season compared to 0.72 xG without him. Most telling is that they have allowed just 0.8 opposition fast breaks per 90 minutes with Walker in the team compared to 1.5 without him.
On top of this, Walker is crucial to the way Manchester City open up space against opposition defences. He has averaged 7.96 passes into the final third per 90 minutes this season, ranking him in the 99th percentile for Premier League players in his position, as well as 1.79 carries into the final third (70th percentile).
Manchester City still have the advantage in the Premier League title race. Even if Liverpool win at Southampton, Guardiola’s team will hold a one-point lead over the Reds for their final fixture at home to Aston Villa.
However, Villa could exploit City’s reliance on Walker like West Ham did. The right back’s injury cost Guardiola in the Champions League and it could yet cost him the Premier League title.
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