Football betting tips: Euro 2024 qualifiers
1pt Kazakhstan to win at 43/20 (Unibet, Bet UK)
1pt Bakhtiyar Zaynutdinov to score anytime at 24/5 (William Hill)
- @MickeyBeardmore has recorded +26pts profit in the opening weeks of the football season
Yakshemash! They might be a country famed most for the fictional creation of comedian Sacha Baron Cohen but Kazakhstan are actually in with a chance of qualifying for a major tournament for the first time in their footballing history.
And, yes, that would be veeeeeeery niiiiiice. Anyway, you'll be glad to know that's the end of the Borat references. Chiefly because using the majority of them would probably get me sacked. HIGH-FIVE! (Sorry, that really is the end).
Magomed Adiyev's team are enjoying the most successful Euro qualifying campaign in their history, helped by one of their greatest ever results - perhaps the greatest - when they scored three in the final 20 minutes to stun Denmark 3-2 in March.
And while Northern Ireland's qualification hopes are over after four defeats from five group games - including June's late but humbling 1-0 reverse to the Kazakhs at Windsor Park - Adiyev's men remain firmly in the hunt.
It might still take a Hollywood movie script for them to get there, admittedly - with trips to all of Group H's top three in Finland, Denmark and Slovenia to come - but the point is, they have a chance with only three points seperating those four sides.
What are the best bets?
I think the hosts, six points better off than Michael O'Neill's side and at home here remember, have been disrespected in the markets for this one, somehow pegged as underdogs when they surely deserve equal favouritism at worst.
You could offer the counter-argument that Northern Ireland will play with freedom given they are all but mathematically eliminated while the pressure is on the hosts, a situation they will admittedly be somewhat unfamiliar with.
However, in the past 15 months, Kazakhstan have won four of five home games including seeing off Denmark, Slovakia and Belarus, while Northern Ireland have lost five of their last six, that run only interrupted by a win in San Marino.
I'm amazed to see KAZAKHSTAN TO WIN at 43/20 in places and that has to be the headline selection here considering they have already won away to the same team during this qualifying campaign.
At the risk of doubling down on the hosts, I also cannot resist the near 5/1 on Kazakh star man BAKHTIYAR ZAYNUTDINOV TO SCORE ANYTIME.
While the majority of the Kazakh squad ply their trade in their native domestic league, Zaynutdinov has represented Rostov and CSKA Moscow in the Russian top flight and recently signed a four-year deal with Turkish giants Besiktas.
Zaynutdinov is the leading scorer among his country's current squad with an impressive 12 goals in 31 caps and is worth backing to breach a Northern Ireland defence that just shipped four goals in Slovenia.
BuildABet @16/1
- Kazakhstan to win
- Zaynutdinov to score anytime
- Both Teams to Score
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Northern Ireland ended a three-game goal drought in Slovenia and with no pressure on their shoulders, there's a decent chance we'll see a similarly open match to that 4-2 defeat.
Kazakhstan's previous four competitive home games have featured a 3-2 win, two 2-1 victories and a 2-1 defeat so they are a team used to seeing goals at both ends of the pitch.
Score prediction: Kazakhstan 2-1 Northern Ireland (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Team news
Kazakhstan slipped to a slightly unlucky 1-0 home defeat by Finland on Thursday and boss Adiyev is unlikely to tinker too much, if at all, with the line-up from that night, with an unchanged XI expected.
The Northern Ireland XI is slightly more unpredictable with their qualification hopes all but over. Ciaran Brown came off early against Slovenia and could be replaced by Craig Cathcart at the back.
Predicted line-ups
Kazakhstan: Shatskiy; Bystrov, Marochkin, Alip; Skvortsov, Tagybergen, Darabayev, Vorogovskiy; Kuat, Zaybutdinov; Aymbetov
Northern Ireland: Peacock-Farrell; Hume, Evans, McNair, Cathcart; S Charles; McMenamin, Price, Saville, Kennedy; D Charles
Match facts
- Kazakhstan have only lost three of their last 11 competitive matches (W7 D1), although one of those was their most recent, losing 0-1 to Finland last time out.
- Northern Ireland have lost each of their last four matches, each in qualifying for Euro 2024; not since September 2011 to June 2012 (run of 6) have the Green and White Army lost more games in a row in all competitions.
- Northern Ireland have only won two of their last 10 major tournament (World Cup/Euros) qualifying matches away from home (D1 L7), losing their last two. They last suffered three straight such defeats in September 2012 (run of 4).
- Kazakhstan have won five of their last eight home games across all competitions (L3), more than their previous 27 beforehand (W4 D8 L15).
- Abat Aymbetov has scored in two of his last three European Championship qualifying matches for Kazakhstan (two goals); both were match-winning goals as a substitute against Northern Ireland in June and Denmark in March.
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