Champions League betting tips: Juventus v Porto best bets and preview
Cristiano Ronaldo is backed to steal the headlines against Porto, with both best bets involving Juventus' star man.
Football betting tips: Juventus v Porto
1pt Cristiano Ronaldo to score 2 or more at 16/5 (William Hill)
0.5pt Cristiano Ronaldo to score a header at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
This tie is very finely poised heading into the second leg in Turin, with Porto taking a 2-1 lead to the Allianz, though that very late away goal conceded in Portugal could end up proving costly.
Last season, Juventus were knocked out at this stage by Lyon having lost the first leg 1-0, and the lack of an away goal proved their undoing, so their chances of progressing this season have been greatly boosted by Federico Chiesa’s 82nd-minute goal.
The Old Lady’s main issues this season have come away from home, so it wasn’t a surprise to see them lose at the Dragão, though the manner of the deserved loss was very alarming (xG: POR 1.41 – 0.76 JUV).
Andrea Pirlo’s side have won just two of their last six away matches in all competitions, losing three, but they have made the Allianz Stadium a fortress, losing just two of 20 there this season, winning 14.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
That is reflected in their underlying expected goals (xG) numbers, as they have averaged 2.07 expected goals for (xGF) per game and 0.95 expected goals against (xGA) per game in 16 matches across Serie A and the Champions League.
Juve swatted Lazio aside at home this past weekend while resting many key starters, including the Champions League’s all-time top scorer – Cristiano Ronaldo.
Porto capitalised on some uncharacteristic defensive errors in what was a poor first-leg performance from the Italians, but will need a lot more in this second meeting if they are to pull off the upset and progress.
I am expecting them to face wave after wave of pressure as Juve look for at least one goal, which could provide chances on the break, but while they have conceded only four goals in seven UCL games this term, Porto have conceded chances equating to 9.4 xGA.
They are giving up opportunities, and who better to punish them than one of the greatest finishers the game has ever seen – especially in this competition.
We are in the knockout stage, and this part of the Champions League is Ronaldo’s playground. He has made a habit of stealing all the headlines.
From his hat-trick for Real against Atletico, to his overhead kick against Juventus, to his hat-trick at this stage two season ago against Atleti to help overturn a 2-0 first-leg deficit. When the lights are brightest and the stakes at their highest, Ronaldo comes to the fore.
Half of his 134 Champions League goals have come after the group stage, and this season he has so far amassed four goals in five games; his xG per 95 of 0.83 shows he is getting at least two big chances per game.
This game is made for him to do what he usually does, and against a Portuguese opponent.
He is understandably incredibly short to score (generally 8/13), but given his history of scoring multiple goals in these big games, the price of 16/5 for RONALDO TO SCORE TWO OR MORE appeals greatly.
Also, his aerial prowess is unmatched in the modern game, so the Sky Bet-boosted price about the all-time Champions League record scorer to notch with his head at 7/1 looks another way in.
20% of his league goals this season have been headers, while 18% of his 134 UCL goals have come via his head.
Juventus v Porto best bets and score prediction
- Cristiano Ronaldo to score 2 or more at 16/5 (William Hill)
- Cristiano Ronaldo to score a header at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Juventus 3-0 Porto (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (08/03/21)
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