Jimmy’s Punt 25/26: Staked 126.25pts | Returned 127.87 | +1.62pts | ROI 0.80%
Football betting tips: EFL
Sunday 12:00 - Sheffield Wednesday vs Sheffield United
0.5pt Ben Mee to score anytime at 14/1 (General)
0.5pt Mark McGuinness to score anytime at 14/1 (General)
0.5pt Japhet Tanganga to score anytime at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Last weekend the results were bad and how they came to be bad was frustrating.
First off, none of the bets won and a couple were void. Bad.
I knew Crawley’s Kyle Scott was unlikely to play but at the prices available and his cards record, he was worth the risk.
The frustration centres around Sam Nombe’s late omission from the Rotherham squad. I didn’t hear any whispers of it pre-match and he was central to two points' worth of bets.
Newport were outclassed by Shrewsbury - no complaints - but 17/4 Cheltenham scored two own goals and dropped a clanger for the other in a 3-2 loss at Tranmere.
Very frustrating but what can you do?
Anyway, I've got loads of angles for the weekend.
It might have something to do with the lack of EFL action last weekend or it could be a consequence of the fixture calendar, which has thrown up some sumptuous match-ups, either way there’s lots to go at.
I have settled on unders, overs, cards and a couple of potential set piece mismatches.
Price-wise, I got some short priced, serious punts and plenty of daft ones kicking off with the Thursday Night EFL fixture.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off: Sunday, 12:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event, ITV1, ITVX
- Live odds, form and stats
When you take out the context of this Steel City derby, the narratives and the emotion, there are a couple of glaring bets. Strip it back and it is a battle between one of the best set-piece sides in the division and the worst.
Sheffield Wednesday have conceded the most goals (10) and the highest expected goals against (8.41) from set-pieces in the Championship.
Sheffield United have only scored twice from dead ball situations this term but have racked up the second-most expected goals (8.57).
Chris Wilder will probably play BEN MEE, MARK MCGUINNESS and JAPHET TANGANGA is a weird back four/five so we’ll have to split the stakes across the trio.
Mee is a real threat but he is usually the front-post target so his presence doesn’t translate in terms of shots or goals, although he does have an assist this term. He was withdrawn at half-time in the Blades' 0-0 draw with QPR so it is worth keeping an eye on team news.
McGuinness has scored eight goals across his previous four seasons at the level and has had seven shots across his last five starts. He also enjoyed a successful loan spell at Hillsborough which gives this angle an extra bit of narrative.
Tanganga has averaged 0.9 shots this season and netted four goals across the 2023/24 and 2024/25 seasons at Millwall.
Already advised
Thursday 20:00 - Peterborough vs Stockport
1pt Owen Moxon to be carded at 7/2 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Peterborough to win and both teams to score at 5/1 (bet365, William Hill)
Friday 20:00 - Preston vs Blackburn
1pt Andrew Hughes to be carded at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Hayden Carter to be carded at 7/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Hughes and Carter to be carded at 26/1 (Betfair)
Saturday 15:00 - Ipswich vs Wrexham
2pts Jack Taylor to be carded at 10/1 (bet365)
1pt George Hirst to be carded at 9/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Taylor and Hirst to be carded at 90/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Taylor, Hirst and Ben Sheaf to be carded at 300/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Taylor, Hirst and Lewis O'Brien to be carded at 225/1 (bet365)
0.25pt Taylor, Hirst, Sheaf and O'Brien to be carded at 750/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - Barnsley vs Luton
3pts Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 (General)
0.5pt Over 4.5 goals at 5/1 (Betvictor)
Saturday 15:00 - Swindon vs Grimsby
3pts Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Over 4.5 goals at 9/2 (General)
Peterborough vs Stockport
- Kick-off: Thursday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
At a glance, this is a battle between League One’s leaders and the division's basement boys.
Stockport sit top of the table on goals scored and Thursday’s opponents PETERBOROUGH are second from bottom on goal-difference.
The hosts are averaging just under a point per game, the visitors just under two a game but I don’t think there’s as much between these sides as the odds suggest.
Yes, there may be 21 places between them but it’s only actually 15 points, besides Dave Challinor has one key absentee to contend with.
Oliver Norwood has been ruled out until Christmas - best case scenario - and without the best player in the league pulling the strings I fear the Hatters might look a bit ordinary.
Norwood’s absence should see OWEN MOXON start and at 7/2, his price TO BE CARDED appeals.
Based on his career cards per 90 average (0.28), that is almost a point too big. But across the last four seasons, that average jumps to 0.38, so his price is definitely too big.
Posh have a new manager in the dugout and he’s brought some belief with him.
In Luke William’s first game in charge his side dealt Wimbledon a 5-0 shellacking. For context, the Dons had only conceded 15 goals across their other 14 league games.
William’s second game saw Peterborough nick a win deep into injury time at Crawley in the Football League Trophy.
So it's two games, two wins and seven goals scored. The perfect start and they’ll be brimming with confidence as they host a Stockport side without their best player.
Combining a home WIN with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 11/2 is worth a poke.
Odds correct at 1750 GMT (19/11/25)
Preston vs Blackburn
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
East Lancashire derby. On the telly. Under the lights. As always, I am drawn to the card market.
Referee Paul Tierney isn’t the best in terms of cards, averaging 3.57 in the Championship across his career. In two second tier games this season he dealt a no card game and dished out three in the other, which isn’t ideal but I know he is capable of flashing the cards. He has brandished 18 across his other four EFL appearances this season.
Preston are the second most carded side in the league and have the third most carded player. So, I’ll start with him.
ANDREW HUGHES has picked up six cards this season and was carded when these sides last met at Deepdale. At 5/1, his price TO BE CARDED is simply too big on Friday.
HAYDEN CARTER is another standout price TO BE CARDED.
He’s got a great track record for cards in this fixture (2 in 3 starts) and a poor disciplinary record across his career (0.28 cards per 90).
Naturally, the CARD DOUBLE is getting felt as well.
Odds correct at 1750 GMT (19/11/25)
Ipswich vs Wrexham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Ipswich are round 4/7 on to beat Wrexham but I don’t think it’s going to be straightforward.
The visitors have only lost one league game since mid-October (W4 D5), beating Coventry and Charlton and sharing the spoils with Middlesbrough, Birmingham and Leicester over that sample.
On the road, they’ve lost at Southampton and Stoke but those defeats have come by a one goal margin.
So, this should be competitive and yet the odds on price about the hosts has skewed the card prices. There are some big ones knocking about but two Tractor Boys stand out TO BE CARDED.
JACK TAYLOR has featured a couple of times in this column. He’s got three cards in twice as many Championship appearances this term and has a cards per 90 average of 0.39 across three seasons at Portman Road.
The other is GEORGE HIRST. He has three cards this term, two in his last four league appearances, and a career cards per 90 average of 0.17 which jumps up to 0.24 during his time at Ipswich. Even based on his career average, 6/1 would be generous on Saturday.
I’m taking the singles and the CARD DOUBLE at a big price but I have also thrown in Wrexham’s most likely card candidates in a couple of daft combinations listed below. I wouldn’t put anyone off the various doubles either.
- Taylor and Hirst card double
- Taylor, Hirst and Ben Sheaf card treble
- Taylor, Hirst and Lewis O’Brien card treble
- Taylor, Hirst, Sheaf and O’Brien card four-fold
BEN SHEAF has picked up three cards in his last three league appearances. LEWIS O’BRIEN is his side's most carded player (4).
The referee appointment is a bit of a snag. Dean Whitestone is hit-and-miss. He has averaged over three cards per game in the second tier across his career. He’s dished out one no card game, one 10 card game across the last three seasons and almost everything in between.
Odds correct at 1535 GMT (21/11/25)
Barnsley vs Luton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Form has been fleeting but the goals consistently come during Conor Hourihane’s reign at Barnsley.
He is 30 games into his tenure (temporary and permanent), 20 of those have seen OVER 2.5 GOALS click, nine have gone OVER 4.5 and Barnsley have only kept one clean sheet.
I think goals could be rife at Oakwell this weekend with Luton in town. Jack Wilshere's side scored four in a seven-goal thriller against Forest Green in the FA Cup and put three past Stockport with the Hatters (Stockport that is) missing a pen.
The Hatters (Luton this time) played out a stalemate with Rotherham in their last outing but that was more a consequence of the Millers' defensive tactics.
Barnsley will be a lot more open than their South Yorkshire counterparts this weekend which is why both goal lines appeal.
Swindon vs Grimsby
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
This clash in League Two also looks ideal for goals with OVER 2.5 GOALS a fair price.
Grimsby have scored 29 goals this term (second-most in the division), Swindon have netted 27 (4th) and the pair have conceded 21 each.
Ian Holloway and David Artell were the managers for the league meetings last season and both games featured four goals.
Overs has paid out in 75% of Swindon’s 16 league games this season and nine of Grimsby’s - five of which have come on the Mariners' travels.
I get the sense this clash could descend into chaos. Artell’s side have played out four games with five or more goals, including a 3-3 draw at Harrogate and the 7-1 win over Cheltenham.
Holloway’s not the type to turn his nose up at a shoot out either.
At 9/2, OVER 4.5 GOALS is also worth a punt.
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (20/11/25) *unless stated otherwise
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