Jimmy's Punt 26/27: Staked 62.1pts | Returned 34.22pts | P/L -27.88pts | ROI -45%
Football betting tips: League One
1pt Elliott Hewitt to be carded at 9/2 (bet365)
Love it or hate it, the EFL weekend’s action starts on a Thursday now with a rogue game.
On this occasion Mansfield host Oxford in League One and it’s one of the rare occasions where all the circumstances align perfectly for a player card.
A good referee, a team who picks up a lot of cards against a team who draws a lot of fouls, a player with a good record against the second most fouled player in the league. Oh and the price is big enough too.
That’s probably the best thing about these Thursday night games; the bookies price player cards. A rare treat in League’s One and Two. I’ll be back with the bets for the weekend’s action later in the week.
Mansfield are in the play-offs for poor discipline, picking up 20 cards this term. Fittingly, on Thursday they host Oxford, the most fouled side in League One (14.7 per game).
Of the most fouled U’s side, Siriki Dembele is the most fouled of all. He’s drawn 2.9 fouls per game this season, with three of his direct opponents getting their name taken.
Considering this clash is getting overlooked by Thomas Parsons, a referee who has dished out 6-6-6-7 cards across his last four appearances, cards are probably worth a look.
The Stags are expected to go with a back five and when facing back fives, two of the five right-sided centre-backs have been cautioned against Oxford, but none of the right wing backs have.
So, if you have the luxury of team news, my advice would be just to back the hosts' right sided centre back.
I don’t have that luxury, but I think it will be ELLIOTT HEWITT. He’s picked up two cards this season and has a cards per 90 average of 0.29 across the last three, so the 9/2 about him TO BE CARDED is value regardless.
Odds correct at 15:50 BST (14/10/26)
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