Football betting tips: EFL
1pt Burton to beat Doncaster at 4/1 (General)
1.5pts Bromley to beat Mansfield at 15/4 (bet365)
1pt Barnsley to beat Stockport at 6/1 (bet365, Betfred)
1pt Crawley to beat Chesterfield at 15/4 (General)
Result Yankee (Saturday 15:00)
1.1pt (Total stake) Burton, Bromley, Barnsley and Crawley win Yankee at 788/1 (bet365)
I can’t help but crack a smile as I look ahead to the bustling weekend of EFL action.
The League One and League Two schedule was been ravaged by the longest international break in living memory but those two divisions - alongside the Championship - return in all their glory.
I had a little look back at last season’s international break for clues as to what to expect this weekend.
League Two was predictably unpredictable. The second and third tier saw a slight dip in goals with 58% of the games going under 2.5 goals and 46% settled by a goal or fewer.
So tread carefully this weekend because it could be fine margin, especially for those sides with lengthy injury lists or a few international jet-setters in their ranks.
Doncaster vs Burton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
BURTON look a touch big TO WIN at Doncaster.
Doncaster have only won one game all season (D3 L3) but their data is good - if anyone cares.
According to their xPTS, they are the biggest underachievers in the division and this metric has them in seventh, level on points with Luton and Sheffield Wednesday.
They’ve won the xG battle in four of their seven League One games, winning none by the way, but they’ve conceded the first goal on four occasions, including three of the four games they’ve won the xG count in.
And this context is key.
Price-wise the Brewers went off at a shorter price at home to Huddersfield (lost) and at Oxford (lost). Sure, they conceded six goals in the process and didn’t win a point but they’ve beaten Leicester and Plymouth this season.
This will be the second time Donny have been odds-on in the league this term and only the second time they’ve been clear favourites. They drew both.
Mansfield vs Bromley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Mansfield look a bit short at odds-on.
They’ve made an inconsistent start. After winning two of their first three League One games they are winless in four.
Nigel Clough’s side have played Stockport, Bradford, Huddersfield and Burton since putting five past Luton, conceding eight goals and failing to score in three of those.
The Stags went from thrashing the Hatters to losing 5-0 at Reading and don’t look to have recovered.
On Saturday they welcome BROMLEY, a side constantly undervalued by the bookies.
The Ravens are favourites to go down and favourites to finish bottom because of their poor underlying data.
Results-wise Andy Woodman’s side have recovered well from a rough few games. Sheffield Wednesday put seven past them at Hillsborough, Leyton Orient beat them 5-0 and Wimbledon 2-0. They’ve beaten Huddersfield and drawn at Blackpool since.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see them WIN here and am happy to take a swing at the prices available.
Stockport vs Barnsley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
BARNSLEY’s squad is threadbare, beyond the 13 or so potential starters.
Last season's poor defensive record is taking a while to recover from and despite naming a strong XI they were thumped 4-1 by League Two Fleetwood in the EFL Trophy on Tuesday.
Daniel Stendel called it a ‘League Two performance’ or something to that effect and on Saturday his side head to arguably the best side in the division on their day.
Here’s to hoping for a Reds reaction because at 6/1, I think the visitors price TO WIN is a touch too big.
The Reds haven’t been this big all season. Hosts Stockport have been odds-on five times in the league, beating Wycombe and Wigan by four goals each, Posh by a goal and losing to Leicester and Blackpool.
Barnsley drew with the Foxes and beat Blackpool…
When on song, Stendel’s rock and roll style of play can disrupt League One opposition who want to dominate possession.
The Reds top the charts for possession won in the final third, corners and shots per game.
An early red card scuppered their chances of beating Leicester before the international break, although they gave it a good go, battling back to draw. Plymouth were clinical in winning 3-0 in the game prior.
Stockport are certainly in those two clubs' category. They rank in the top four for just about every attacking metric on Fotmob.
That includes possession, accurate long balls (something to do with a certain Ollie Norwood) and accurate crosses into the box.
Crawley vs Chesterfield
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Chesterfield are odds-on away from home in League Two. They simply must be taken on.
That’s the rule with Paul Cook’s side anyway, take them on when favourites and back them as outsiders.
It was a ploy I tried last weekend, a ploy which failed spectacularly.
The Spireites beat Tranmere 4-2 and won the xG battle 3.13-0.52 in a dominant performance. They were level heading into the final seven minutes of the 90 if that counts for anything.
They’ve now been favourites seven times in the league and won twice (D2 L3). Last weekend was the first time this season they’ve won at odds-on.
For context, they’ve gone off 2/1 or better twice and won both games.
Last season, the Spireites went off odds-on 15 times and dropped points on eight occasions. They went off at 2/1 or bigger nine times and won four of those games.
So, at 15/4 backing CRAWLEY TO WIN is the bet.
Odds correct at 15:30 BST (08/10/26)
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