Jimmy’s Punt 25/26: Staked 38pts | Returned 47.2pts | P/L +9.2pts | ROI 24%
Football betting tips: Championship
Sunday 12:00 - Southampton vs Portsmouth
0.5pt John Swift to be carded at 12/5 (Betvictor)
Last weekend was terrible; five bets, no winners and a -5pts loss. Something long time readers (hi mum) will be more than familiar with.
It was partially my fault and partially the fault of a late refereeing change at Rodney Parade.
Occasionally, there’s angles you find, circumstances so perfect, you’ll happily throw some points at it and not mind if it loses. Newport’s 3-2 defeat against Bristol Rovers was one of them because of the referee and the rare opportunity to back League Two players to be carded - aside from very good prices obviously. The only issue was there was a late referee switcherooney that I wasn’t aware of.
The other issue with the losing bets was on me. It may have slipped past me that one of the players in question was away on international duty - Bristol Rovers' keeper. Oops. My boss did ring me and called me a ‘nob’ if it is any consolation.
The man playing in his place wasn’t priced with a certain firm either, so I spent the hour before kick-off pestering this firm's customer service live chat without a reply. In hindsight they did me a favour. Nonetheless, a weekend to forget.
This weekend, I’ll be in Portman Road’s away pen so have a couple of angles lined up for that match. I’ve also tried to predict the EFL’s most unpredictable division this season and I am ready to get my heart broken again by keeper cards.
Southampton vs Portsmouth
- Kick-off: Sunday, 12:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
As you can see from the heat-maps comparing his average positions from last season to this, John Mousinho has been playing JOHN SWIFT at the base of midfield.
It means Swift's been in the thick of it at Portsmouth.
Swift has averaged 2.3 tackles and committed 1.5 fouls per game, picking up three cards in four league appearances. As he only picked up four bookings last season, it is safe to assume this position change has been the catalyst for his new found cynicism.
His price TO BE SHOWN A CARD appeals in the South Coast Derby. It is the first league meeting between these clubs in over a decade, so I am hoping the sides will be extra tenacious.
Matthew Donohue is the referee, he has averaged 4.22 cards per game in the second tier which includes 13 yellows and one red in three appearances this season.
This is a referee who is more than capable of losing control though. He has already dished out eight cards in a game this campaign and gave 11 cards on two separate occasions last season.
Friday 20:00 - Ipswich vs Sheff Utd
3pts Over 2.5 goals at 10/11 (General)
0.5pt Over 4.5 goals at 6/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Betvictor)
Saturday 12:30 - Oxford vs Leicester
1pt Oxford double chance and Jamie Cumming to be booked at 14/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Oxford to win and Cumming to be booked at 33/1 (bet365)
1pt Leicester double chance and Jakub Stolarczyk to be booked at 8/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Leicester to win and Stolarczyk to be booked at 14/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00
1pt Norwich to beat Coventry at 15/4 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
Ipswich vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Ipswich have played two Championship home games this season and, as suspected, it looks like Kieran McKenna has opted for the same gung-ho approach as he did in the promotion winning campaign of 2023/24.
I’ll be riding this Portman Road goals train until the price goes, so, like a broken record I am once again going to refer to the Tractor Boys goalscoring exploits of 2023/24.
It feels like Sheffield United are pretty ideal opponents.
A new-look back four, albeit a very good looking one on paper, and a club teetering towards mutiny.
The Blades haven’t named the same back line for back-to-back games this season and are still awaiting their first clean sheet in any competition.
Ruben Selles appears to be on borrowed time as well, despite only being five competitive games into his tenure at Bramall Lane. His side have failed to score in their last three games and haven’t had a shot on target in their last two away matches.
It’s a confusing situation in S2 and the Blades could get a hiding here. Nonetheless, I must stick to my goals stance as it has served us well.
OVER 2.5 GOALS is 10/11 and OVER 4.5 GOALS is 6/1 and both are worth a punt.
Oxford vs Leicester
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
According to the EFL official website, Ben Toner has the whistle for Oxford’s clash with Leicester.
Once again, we are at the mercy of a late refereeing change but I am willing to take that risk because of his zero tolerance to goalkeepers and their time-wasting hijinks.
I was worried Toner had heightened the threshold for cards after he failed to brandish any in Mansfield’s 2-0 win over Blackpool in his first appearance of the 2025/26 campaign. It must have been a blip though as he came roaring back with nine yellows in Chesterfield’s draw with Crawley, one of which going the way of Crawley keeper Harvey Davies.
It means Toner has carded one keeper in two appearances this season and 20 in 36 league games last season.
As was the plan last weekend, I’ll be taking both keepers TO BE SHOWN A CARD alongside their respective side WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE and TO WIN. So, that is the four separate bets as listed below.
- Oxford double chance and Jamie Cumming to be booked
- Oxford to win and Cumming to be booked
- Leicester double chance and Jakub Stolarczyk to be booked
- Leicester to win and Stolarczyk to be booked
With no international break, there shouldn’t be any selection surprises but please keep your eyes peeled for any officiating changes. The points will be lost in the P/L but at least we can cash the bets out.
The keepers in question aren’t renowned for time wasting but Toner did card Oxford’s stopper JAMIE CUMMING in the only game where the pair crossed paths last season.
JAKUB STOLARCZYK was carded once in 10 appearances last season and it came from running down the clock in Leicester’s win at Tottenham.
Coventry vs Norwich
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
The second tier really has been the most unpredictable league in the EFL this season. I did some digging at the start of the international break and here are the cold hard facts:
- Total odds-on favourites: 20
- Average odds (implied % chance): 1.74 (57.5%)
- Won (%): 8 (40%)
- Drawn (%): 8 (40%)
- Lost (%): 4 (20%)
So, naturally we should be taking on the odds-on favourites and there’s a few this weekend.
Coventry are the shortest priced of the lot and I certainly wouldn’t be in a rush to back them at 4/6 generally. Full disclosure, I also said the same ahead of their 7-1 win over QPR, so, you have been warned.
Coventry drew 0-0 with a well-organised Hull side in their first game and haven’t kept a clean sheet in the league since. Frank Lampard’s side drew 2-2 with Oxford in their most recent league game, they scored 12 times in the two league games in between those draws and also conceded four.
There is a lot to get excited about from a Sky Blues standpoint. An attack minded coach, a scintillating and in-form front four, two technicians at the base of midfield and no nonsense pair in central defence.
But…
Coventry have scored 14 goals from an xG of 7.7. They’ve created 10 ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.30), average 6.8 shots on target per game and have a conversion rate of 19.4%. It all smells a little bit unsustainable to me.
They have also gone off at odds-on three times this season and won one (yes, it was 7-1) but drew the other two.
NORWICH’s league form is mixed (W2 D2). They do have a striker (Josh Sargent) in top form, a highly regarded manager (Liam Manning) and simply look a little too big of a price TO WIN on Saturday.
Odds correct at 1610 BST (11/09/25)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
