Jimmy's Punt 26/27 Predictions: Staked 26pts | Returned 12.93pts | P/L -13.07pts | ROI -50%
Football betting tips: EFL
Saturday 15:00 - Plymouth vs Barnsley
1pt Barnsley to win at 15/4 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - Barnet vs Accrington
3pts Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 21/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Saturday 15:00 - Rotherham vs Salford
2pts Rotherham to win at 11/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
It’s been a disastrous start to the campaign for this column. August is usually a great month as well.
The first month of the season is EFL punting in its best, most pure form. Very little data for the bookies to go off, an old school battle of wits where you can put all your summer research to the test.
The last two seasons, I’ve finished the first month of the campaign +23pts to the good, this campaign I head into the weekend -13pts down.
Not everything in life is a lesson though, sometimes you just fail. And in the opening few weeks of the season I’ve been chewed up and spat out.
It gives us a mountain to climb for the remainder of the campaign but we’ve just got to hunker down and stick to it.
Plymouth vs Barnsley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
This is a bet that makes me feel a little tingly.
The price certainly appeals, it passes the eye test and I can even make sense of the form - if I squint. But it’s one of those which could blow up spectacularly.
Let me explain.
I’m backing BARNSLEY TO WIN at 15/4 with bet365.
Yes, the same Barnsley who were just beaten 5-1 by Stevenage in their last outing. The same Barnsley which were thwarted by Bromley in their first game. A Bromley side which haven’t won since, conceding 15 goals in four games.
That’s the Barnsley side I wanna get onside here.
Those two defeats came against two big, streetwise, direct teams.
The Reds averaged 62% possession across both games and after missing plenty of chances, were ultimately asked to break through the opposition's low block.
In that scenario, Barnsley struggled but what about when a team wants to play? Well, Daniel Stendel’s side have beaten Blackpool (H) and Leyton Orient (A) by an aggregate scoreline of 5-2 this season.
They are a young team - average age of 21.7 against Blackpool - naive and inconsistent. But when it clicks, they are insatiable.
The underlying data is good too. Barnsley top the League One charts for touches in the opposition box (190), corners (45) and possession won in the final third per match (4.8).
Those stats sum up Stendel’s rock and roll style nicely, and tactically, it could prove to be the kryptonite of a few of the division's big boys.
Where they fall short is taking chances but the recent acquisition of frontman Ben Hamed Toure could fix that.
Price wise, Barnsley went off as favourites at Home Park last August (won 3-1) and this is the shortest price Plymouth have been since they played Exeter in the Carabao Cup at the start of the season.
Barnet vs Accrington
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Barnet have played their part in three four-goal games and a six-goal thriller already this season.
In all competitions, six of their seven games have seen OVER 2.5 GOALS AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE click with the 1-1 draw at Exeter being the only exception.
Saturday’s opponents Accrington have also been very obliging on the goals front, netting 10 goals and conceding 13 goals in all competitions.
All bar one of their games have seen this bet click, with the 2-0 defeat at Exeter falling a goal short - those pesky Grecians at it again.
At odds against, backing goals is the bet here.
Rotherham vs Salford
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Are ROTHERHAM good?
Alex Bruce has certainly adhered himself to the Millers faithful recently.
Two late goals earned them four points against Chesterfield and Tranmere and they almost nicked a much deserved draw in their last outing against Bristol Rovers - the best side in League Two so far.
Bruce was sent off at the Memorial Ground for a late ruckus, but a bit of fighting spirit is most welcome after a horrid couple of years for the South Yorkshire outfit.
And this clash with Salford is a bit personal for Bruce. Not only was he part of Karl Robinson’s coaching staff last season at the Ammies, but he was also snubbed for the managers job in the summer.
So far, the visitors haven’t lived up to their tag as pre-season title favourites.
They started off with three defeats, Salford were odds-on for two of those, and have narrowly beaten Newport (2/5) and Port Vale (4/5) in their last two games.
At the prices available, I'd rather be on the hosts TO WIN.
Rotherham rank third for xG goal-difference (3.2), Salford are 14th (-0.6), and the Millers have had a much tougher schedule.
Already advised...
Thursday 20:00 - Stevenage vs Luton
0.5pt Oliver Sanderson to score a header at 20/1 (bet365)
Stevenage vs Luton
- Kick-off: Thursday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
I saw first hand how dangerous Stevenage were from set pieces at Oakwell last Saturday.
Despite going a goal down, Alex Revell’s side romped to a 5-1 victory with three of them coming from dead balls.
OLIVER SANDERSON got the equaliser, his third of the campaign and two of them have come with his head, as has seven of his 11 shots.
He’s averaging 1.58 goals, 0.80 expected goals and 3.68 headed shots per 90. Staggering stuff.
Sanderson netted 16 times last season for Woking in the National League, but even with that form, it’s a surprise to see how quickly he has taken to the jump up in class.
Anyway, with a goals per 90 average of 0.47, it isn’t too much of a surprise to see him priced at 10/3 to score anytime on Thursday but it is the 20/1 about him TO SCORE A HEADER piques my interest.
Boro have netted six times from set pieces this season, he’s one of the big boys they aim for and opponents Luton have conceded three times from dead balls this term.
Odds correct at 19:45 BST (08/09/26)
Friday 20:00 - West Ham vs Wrexham
1pt Ben Whiteman to be carded at 11/4 (bet365)
West Ham vs Wrexham
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
How are West Ham top of the league? That seems to have come out of nowhere.
After a slow start to the campaign, winless in three against Burnley, Charlton and Watford, the Hammers have won their last three and scored 10 goals in the process.
The Hammers thumped Wolves in that sample too, and although they’ve scored at least three goals in each of their last three games, I still wouldn’t be in a hurry to back them at odds on-quotes.
Nuno Espírito Santo’s side have only kept one clear sheet all season, conceding multiple goals in two of their last three and were almost held by Bolton on Tuesday.
Opponents Wrexham are no mugs either. Unbeaten in three, they’ve only lost once all season and if it wasn't for all their draws (four) they’d be a lot closer to the Hammers at the top of the table.
Failure to turn dominant performances into three points has been Phil Parkinson’s side's downfall this campaign, and it’s enough to put me off them at a big price on Friday.
I think there’s something better elsewhere anyway.
Tim Robinson is the referee here and he’s averaged just under four cards per game in a Championship career spanning 251 games.
He’s dished out four bookings in two games this season but awarded 35 in seven appearances last term.
To the player card market then where BEN WHITEMAN is worth a tout TO BE CARDED at 11/4.
He’s hit double figures for cards in three of his last five second tier seasons, picking up two in five starts for Wrexham this term.
Whiteman will be marshalling a start-studded West Ham attack, at least one opposition central midfielder has been carded in three of the Irons six league games this season, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get his third caution of the campaign on Friday.
Odds correct at 10:15 BST (09/09/26)
Odds correct at 14:50 BST (09/09/26) *unless stated otherwise
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