Jimmy’s Punt 25/26: Staked 139.5pts | Returned 128.52pts | P/L -8.54pts | ROI -8.54%
Football betting tips: EFL
Friday 20:00 - Oxford vs Ipswich
1pt Jack Taylor to be carded at 11/2 (bet365)
Saturday 12:30 - Leicester vs Sheff Utd
2pts Sheffield United +0.25 Asian handicap at 7/8 (bet365)
Saturday 12:30 - Stockport vs Barnsley
2pts Barnsley +0.5 Asian handicap at 17/20 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - Doncaster vs Peterborough
2pts Peterborough +0.25 Asian handicap at evens (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - Walsall vs Bromley
2pts Bromley +0.25 Asian handicap at evens (bet365)
0.5pt Omar Sowunmi to score anytime at 17/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Aden Flint to score anytime at 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Just a whisker away from the big bucks last weekend. Or were we?
I’ve been flitting between the two schools of thoughts. Sure, on one hand, it was a card off some pretty big winners.
The issue, however, is that the player in question - who was a staple of multiple bet builders - didn’t commit a single foul.
So, in truth, we were in fact, a million miles away from the big bucks.
I’ve been a million miles away from any winners recently. My judgement has simply been terrible. Look at some of these shouts.
I got North Macedonia onside at Wales alongside a keeper card, they lost 7-1. I backed Slovakia and their keeper against Germany, they lost 6-0.
I wanted to get against a Gabriel-less Arsenal in the north London derby, they won 4-1. Did I learn my lesson? No, I tried it again in the Champions League against Bayern Munich, they won 3-1. I thought Barcelona were a touch too big at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday, they lost 3-0.
Those touts lost by an aggregate score of 23-3. They are the low lights but what a rotten couple of weeks.
In light of this, you may be wondering why you should follow any of this weekend’s picks? Good question. I wish I had an answer.
Oxford vs Ipswich
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
JACK TAYLOR was dropped for Ipswich’s win over Hull on Tuesday. I think he’ll start on Friday though, partly because he was rested in midweek but also because the Tractor Boys scored both their goals after his introduction.
Taylor just gives his side more balance. He is 11/2 TO BE CARDED, not as big as he was against Wrexham last weekend but still a few points too big in my opinion.
He’s got a cards per 90 average of 0.47 this season, it is 0.38 across his time at Portman Road and he picked up 10 cards in his last full season at Peterborough.
Oxford should make this competitive and referee Matt Donohue can flash the cards, he's dished out six or more in four of 11 appearances this term.
Leicester vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
This is a double pronged attack. SHEFFIELD UNITED have turned a corner. Leicester are bad. I’ll start with the latter.
The Foxes were thumped 3-0 at Southampton on Tuesday, were down to 10 men after just half an hour and only had two shots on target to the Saints' eight. Last Saturday, they beat Stoke 2-1, scoring with their only two shots on target.
Prior to that, they had only won two of 11 games stretching back to August. They beat Liam Manning’s Norwich and Alan Sheehan’s Swansea. Both managers have since been sacked.
It is a bad time to play Sheffield United. Chris Wilder’s on top of things at S2, mainly through team selection.
Femi Seriki has started the last three games at right-back. He brings balance to the back four. Wilder was playing Japhet Tanganga there, he’s moved alongside Ben Mee into central defence and the pair look solid.
Jairo Riedewald has started the last three games in central midfield and both he and Sydie Peck look a lot better for it.
At 7/8, backing the Blades +0.25 ASIAN HANDICAP is the bet. They haven’t conceded in three, they’re unbeaten across that sample and have scored six.
What is +0.25 Asian handicap?
Asian handicaps take draws out of the equation. Quarter handicaps mean your selection starts with either a head start or a deficit of a quarter of a goal (or ‘quarter ball’).
The 0.25 Asian handicap bet is a bit like an each-way bet in that it splits the bet between the two closest ½ intervals. For example, a £10 bet at +0.25 is the same as betting £5 at 0 and £5 at 0.5. With 0.25 handicap bets you can win and draw (and thus win half your wager) or lose and draw (and lose half).
In Asian handicap +0.25 betting, if your selection wins by any margin, your bet is a winner. Likewise, if they lose, you’ve lost your stake. If the match is drawn, however, half the stake is settled at the price chosen by the punter, and the other half is refunded.
Stockport vs Barnsley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Stockport without Oliver Norwood. Are they very ordinary? Or have they just come up against two very good sides since the midfielder picked up an injury which will likely keep him out until the turn of the year. I’d be learning towards the former.
Luton beat them 3-0 and Peterborough beat them by the same scoreline last Thursday. Back-to-back league defeats, six goals conceded and none scored, it’s so unlike a Dave Challinor side. In fact, it is the first time it has happened to his side in his four-season stint in charge.
Coincidentally, BARNSLEY beat Luton 5-0 in their last outing.
I was there and it was no fluke. Conor Hourihane has figured out his best XI and where to play everyone.
He has chopped and changed and tinkered but last Saturday it all clicked. It was a flat, defensive-minded back four. Nothing too fancy, no inverted full-backs.
Luca Connell and Jonathan Bland holding with Patrick Kelly in the 10. Up front it was Reyes Cleary on the left, Davis Keillor-Dunn down the middle and Vimal Yoganathan on the right. And it got the best out of all three forwards.
It feels like a great time to get with Barnsley and, by the same token, against Stockport.
Bet365 have +0.5 ASIAN HANDICAP at 17/20, essentially double chance just at a bigger price.
Doncaster vs Peterborough
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Luke Williams had his first taste of defeat as PETERBOROUGH manager in midweek.
A dubious first-half penalty was dispatched by Stevenage and that proved to be the difference.
Posh went into that game off the back of two League One wins, scoring eight against Wimbledon and Stockport without conceding.
At 23/10, the away win is tempting in South Yorkshire but I am going to err on the side of caution and take the visitors +0.25 on the ASIAN HANDICAP.
Opponents Doncaster are in a rotten run of form. They haven’t won a league game since the start of September (D3 L7) and have failed to score in 40% of those games.
Converting possession and territory into clear-cut chances appears to be the issue for Grant McCann’s side.
They rank fourth for touches in the opposition box and second for accurate crosses per match but are slap bang average for chance creation. Doncaster are 12th for expected goals and 15th for ‘big chances’ created.
I think they could get outgunned.
Walsall vs Bromley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Colchester manager Danny Crowley went on national radio and told the rest of League Two how to beat Walsall.
Set up with a back five and make the Saddlers have the ball.
On Saturday, they welcome the division's form side. BROMLEY have won their last four. Coincidentally, they favour a back five and don’t like to dominate the ball.
It looks like the ideal match-up to side with the visitors.
A win could see Andy Woodman’s side replace Walsall at the top of the league. It's a big game in the grand scheme of things so the +0.25 on the ASIAN HANDICAP at even money looks the most sensible way in.
Walsall have the lowest possession average in the division (38.1%) and they may top the table but the underlying data has them in ninth.
Bromley are also lethal from set-pieces. They have netted 16 goals from dead-balls this season (most in League Two).
OMAR SOWUNMI is their main threat. He’s got five goals in 14 league starts this term, three in his last four. Across four seasons at Bromley, Sowunmi has 20 goals (0.20 goals per 90) so the 17/2 about him TO SCORE ANYTIME is worth a poke here.
To say how much of a threat Bromley are from set-pieces, they are surprisingly weak at defending them. No side in the fourth tier have conceded more goals from dead balls (10) this term.
Walsall have scored 10 times from them and at 10/1 ADEN FLINT’s price TO SCORE ANYTIME is worth a punt. Based on his career goals per 90 average, this price is a point too big.
If you are really greedy, you can combine the pair to both score at 80/1 with William Hill or to both score headers at 140/1 with bet365.
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (27/11/25)
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