- Jimmy's Punt 25/26: Staked 82.5pts | Returned 92.12pts | P/L +9.62pts | ROI 11.7%
Football betting tips: EFL
Saturday 15:00
2pts Bristol City to beat Norwich at 7/4 (bet365)
1pt Oliver McBurnie to score anytime in Birmingham vs Hull at 7/2 (bet365)
0.5pt McBurnie to score and Ryan Giles 1+ assists at 22/1 (bet365)
2pts Harrogate +0.75 Asian handicap vs Colchester at 37/40 (bet365)
1.5pts Crawley to beat Shrewsbury at 21/10 (bet365)
The English Football League has been especially impish this season.
Sheffield United are bottom of the Championship. Stevenage and Bradford lead the way in League One. The only division that is sort of shaping up as expected is League Two, which is ironic considering the reputation it has recently pruned as the most unpredictable of the lot.
Unpredictability shouldn’t be feared but ridden like a cowboy on a bucking bronco. It’s not the time to cling to the favourites with our eyes shut but to sit up in the saddle with one hand on the reins and the other holding our sweet ten-gallons aloft as we roll with the punches and ride the flow.
It may be because I shifted that illness and my sinuses have cleared but I’ve felt like a bloodhound this week, sniffing out plenty of prices I like and embracing these uncertain times. What am I talking about? Broncos and bloodhounds. That week at home on my own has clearly gone to my head.
All I’m trying to say is I’ve got some EFL bets and I like them. Confidence is for fools in this game though and I am due some bad variance so be careful.
Birmingham vs Hull
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Given his form, OLIVER MCBURNIE’s price of 7/2 TO SCORE ANYTIME is too big this weekend.
September’s Championship Player of the Month netted five times last month to take his tally to seven goals in all competitions.
This form has seen his price to finish at the league's top goalscorer tumble from 100/1 to 10/1 but it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise to see him back amongst the goals in England, not least because he is in a Tigers team playing to his strengths.
Across his five seasons in the second tier with Barnsley, Swansea, Sheffield United and now Hull, McBurnie has netted 50 times.
One more assist to add to @ryangiles7's tally...😉#hcafc | @EFL pic.twitter.com/8qhgXOk6qi
— Hull City (@HullCity) October 13, 2025
As his shot map shows, all his goals have come from similar positions and interestingly, all bar one of them in the league have been assisted by RYAN GILES.
Although it seems too obvious, touting McBurnie to score anytime alongside GILES 1+ ASSIST as a double has to be worth a go as well. Birmingham have conceded in seven of their nine games this campaign.
Norwich vs Bristol City
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
The bet in this game ticks all my boxes. It’s a good price obviously, there’s narrative, and form as well.
So the sumptuous narrative first. BRISTOL CITY head to Carrow Road to take on Liam Manning’s Norwich.
Manning left Ashton Gate in the summer after guiding the Robins to their first top-six finish in 17 years.
His move was controversial and hasn’t exactly proved to be a step forward as he’s burnt bridges with the Robins and hasn’t made the best of starts at Norwich.
In fact, we could have a mutiny on our hands in Norwich, just read the replies to his interview after the Old Farm Derby.
Liam on this afternoon 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/Wi9FqXmIEo
— Norwich City FC (@NorwichCityFC) October 5, 2025
Things could get ugly on Saturday if the hosts don't get off to a good start and I don't think they will.
Norwich have lost all four home league games this season, scoring an average of one goal per game and conceding twice as many. They haven’t won any of their last five games in all competitions and their only win across their last eight came against the 10 men of Blackburn.
In fairness, BRISTOL CITY are four without a win but have won the xG battle in three of those and can be backed at 7/4 TO WIN on Saturday which is the same price they were in their draw with Ipswich.
Colchester vs Harrogate
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Should HARROGATE be 4/1 for the trip to Colchester? I am not so sure.
They have gone off shorter at Bristol Rovers, Bromley, Cambridge, Gillingham and Fleetwood this season (W2 D1 L2).
Under Danny Cowley last season, the hosts took 40 points from 23 games, the fourth most in the division. This campaign, they have only won three of 12.
Granted, two of those wins have come in their last two games and they were against two of the division's best sides.
The U’s came from behind to beat Grimsby last weekend and put six past Chesterfield in the game before, the latter feels more like a consequence of Chesterfield’s tactical foibles though.
What about when the onus is on Colchester? They have gone off as favourites five times in the league this term and won none (D2 L3).
Backing the visitors +0.75 ASIAN HANDICAP at a shade of odds-on is the bet. This bet gives us a winner should the visitors avoid defeat, and a half loss if they lose by exactly one goal, with us only losing all our stake should Harrogate lose by two or more.
Shrewsbury vs Crawley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
CRAWLEY’s form doesn’t look good.
They opened their season without a win in seven, looked to have turned a corner by winning three on the spin but are now on a five-game winless run in all competitions.
I just don’t think they are as bad as their form or the league table suggests though.
They are massively underperforming their expected goals (10 goals scored from 17.7 xGF) and expected goals against (21 goals conceded from 15.9 xGA) which basically means they aren’t scoring as much as they should and are conceding more than would be expected based on the underlying metrics.
For a bit more context, since their last league win against Cheltenham in mid-September they have played four games, lost them all but won the xG battle on three occasions. What’s more, they have scored three goals from an xG of 7.64 and conceded eight goals from an xGA of 4.91.
I mean, how is your luck?
These xG numbers aren’t the be all and end all and game state has a massive barring on them but Crawley were level for 46% of those 360 minutes. It wasn’t as if they conceded early in all the games and were chasing.
At some point, their luck will turn and I think it’ll be this Saturday. Backing them TO WIN against Shrewsbury is the bet.
Already advised
Thursday 20:00 - Huddersfield vs Bolton
2pts Huddersfield +0 Asian handicap at evens (bet365)
0.5pt Ruben Roosken to be shown a card at 15/4 (William Hill)
Friday 20:00 - Middlesbrough vs Ipswich
0.5pt No first goalscorer at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
Huddersfield vs Bolton
- Kick-off: Thursday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
The infamous EFL Thursday night slot is filled with a doozy.
A clash of the counties as Lancashire travels to Yorkshire, the White Rose against Red.
I don’t think there is actually any bad blood between these two clubs but don’t let the truth get in the way of building a bit of narrative, not least when player cards are priced and there’s a card-happy referee in charge.
Oliver Yates has dished out 38 yellows in seven League One appearances this term and eight in each his last two.
In total, Yates has averaged over four cards a game across 110 third tier appearances.
Brighton-loanee Amario Cozier-Duberry has been dubbed too good for the level by a few people this season and he has certainly been giving opponents the run around at Bolton.
At least one of the opposition's left-sided players - left midfielders, left-backs, left sided centre midfielders or left sided centre-backs - have picked up cards in eight of of Cozier-Duberry’s 12 league appearances.
Is this one of the best 94th-minute equalisers you've seen?! Take a bow, Amario Cozier-Duberry 👏 pic.twitter.com/xXjqcc9BhU
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) September 14, 2025
RUBEN ROOSKEN is expected to start at left-back for Huddersfield so his price TO BE CARDED is worth a punt.
He has notched up three yellows and one red for the Terriers and started each of their last 10 league games on the left, be that left back or left midfield, so will be tasked with containing Bolton's danger man in some capacity.
I also think HUDDERSFIELD are a touch big here.
Then went off at 13/10 at home to Stockport, and while they did lose, I think the Hatters are a better team than Bolton.
Don’t forget, Wanderers are still without an away league win (D3 L3) and were dealt a battering at Burton in their last outing. It now means they’ve lost their last two away games by an aggregate scoreline of 5-0 against the Brewers and Northampton.
For all the talk of a good, level headed manager in Steven Schumacher and a good underlying process at some point you have to put some stock in the fact Bolton have gone off as favourites in 11 of their 12 league games and only won four.
At even money, backing the hosts +0 ASIAN HANDICAP appeals. It is essentially the same as backing draw no bet but just at a bigger price. Stakes are lost if Bolton win, they are returned if it's a draw and the bet wins if the Terriers get three points.
Middlesbrough vs Ipswich
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Gung-ho at home, fine margin away. That’s Kieran McKenna’s mantra in the Championship. It is how he got them promoted in 2023/24 and looks to be his blueprint again this time around.
The Tractor Boys are unbeaten at home (W3 D2) and the games have averaged 3.6 goals with over 2.5 goals clicking in all bar one.
On the road, they are yet to win (D2 L1), there have been 1.67 goals per game and under 2.5 goals has a 100% strike rate.
Friday’s meeting with Middlesbrough has all the hallmarks of another cagey encounter.
The hosts start the weekend in second spot and could move two points clear with a win against the pre-season title favourites.
Rob Edwards' side have also been fine margin. Each of their last three games have seen two goals or fewer with unders paying out in three of their four league home games.
At 8/11 generally, I don't think there is enough value in backing under 2.5 goals but I cannot resist a punt on NO FIRST GOALSCORER. It landed in Middlesbrough’s last home league game but will make for some extremely uncomfortable Friday night viewing.
Odds correct at 1700 BST (15/10/25)
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