- Jimmy's Punt 25/26: Staked 73.5pts | Returned 78.2pts | P/L +4.7pts | ROI 6%
Football betting tips: EFL
Saturday 17:30
1pt Michael Mellon to score anytime in Oldham vs Barrow at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
It was nothing but frustration last weekend. Sweet, familiar frustration.
Lewis O’Brien kicked off the column on Friday night by missing a sitter, the 8/1 goalscorer racked up 0.66 xG in total.
Next on the list was Haji Wright and whilst he did score once, he had enough chances (2.04 xG) to score at least one more which would have paid out at 15/2 (brace) or maybe even 40/1 (hat-trick).
The left back I touted to be carded for Derby was dropped and his replacement was booked. Sickner.
To compile the misery, I caught some bug over the weekend which meant I was out of action Monday and Tuesday. A devastating blow as it was when the Harvest Super Moon was at peak brightness. A notoriously good couple of nights to catch the big carp.
Aside from that, I have no complaints.
Oldham vs Barrow
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
The evening slot during an international break usually means a trip to the player card market but not this time.
MICHAEL MELLON is too big of a price to ignore in the ANYTIME GOALSCORER market.
The manager's son has netted three times in five league appearances this season taking his fourth tier tally to 18 goals across three seasons.
Across his career, he has a career goals per 90 average of 0.53 and should continue on spot kick duty.
Oldham have only failed to score in one home game and opponents Barrow have only kept one clean sheet on their travels, both stats that bode well for the pick.
Football betting tips: EFL
Saturday 15:00
2pts Burton +0.75 Asian handicap vs Bolton at 37/40 (bet365)
0.5pt Connor O'Riordan to score anytime in Leyton Orient vs Doncaster at 17/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Brad Hills to score anytime in Stockport vs Blackpool at 10/1 (General)
0.5pt Joseph Olowu to score anytime in Stockport vs Blackpool at 11/1 (General)
0.5pt Ethan Pye to score anytime in Stockport vs Blackpool at 12/1 (General)
2pts Newport +0.5 Asian handicap vs Accrington at 41/40 (bet365)
2pts Grimsby to beat Colchester at 17/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Burton vs Bolton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Time to put my money where my mouth is with BURTON.
I had the pleasure of watching them at Oakwell and was impressed. Two goals up at the interval, yes they ended losing the match in injury time but with the onus on Barnsley, Gary Bowyer's side looked pretty dangerous.
I got to watch them again against Stockport and again I thought they were both impressive yet desperately unlucky.
Again, they were leading at the interval, this time against 10-men but lost the game after two worldies from County’s Jack Diamond and then Oliver Norwood.
The Brewers racked up an expected goals (xG) of 2.99 to Stockport’s 1.00 and created six ‘big chances’ but Stockport didn’t create any.
Since that defeat, Burton have played Luton, Lincoln, Huddersfield, Plymouth and Cardiff (W1 D1 L4) but have only been battered once, both in terms of the actual scoreline and xG.
On Saturday they host Bolton, a side still on the hunt for their first away win of the campaign.
At a shade of odds-on, I think there is enough juice in the host's price on the on the ASIAN HANDICAP, where they are given a +0.75 headstart.
The bet wins if Burton avoid defeat, while we get a half stakes loss if they lose by one goal, with the bet a full loser if they lose by two or more.
Leyton Orient vs Doncaster
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
CONNOR O’RIORDAN’s price TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals here at 17/1, some firms have it at 15/2.
With a career goals per 90 average of 0.09 this price is value and O’Riordan has netted three goals in three separate seasons in the fourth tier.
The central defender has made 25 appearances in the third tier and is yet to find the net but a trip to Leyton Orient represents the perfect opportunity on Saturday. The O’s have conceded seven goals from set pieces this term.
Doncaster manager Grant McCann said O’Riordan has trained well all week which should see him start alongside Matty Pearson.
Pearson’s obviously the main set piece threat but cannot be backed at 13/2. He has netted 12 goals at this level (0.16 goals per 90) which does make this price a bit big but morally I just cannot tout a centre back at this price.
There is a chance Sean Grehan or Jay McGrath starts at centre back if O’Riodan doesn’t pass a fitness test but we’ll just have to wait for team news.
Odds correct at 1130 BST (10/10/25)
Stockport vs Blackpool
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
The only side to concede more set piece goals than Leyton Orient in the third tier this term is Blackpool.
Although the change in the visitors' dugout is enough to steer me clear of the 1X2 - I was really tempted by Stockport’s price - I cannot resist some centre back goalscorer action.
The Tangerines have shipped eight goals from dead-balls.
Dave Challinor has been favouring a back three for Stockport this season which means splitting our stake across three potential ANYTIME GOALSCORERS.
JOSEPH OLOWU has netted once this term and averages 0.6 shots per game. ETHAN PYE is yet to break his domestic duck for the campaign but has had four shots across his last three appearances and racked up a total xG of 0.71.
BRAD HILLS is the shortest price of the lot and he has had the fewest shots but he must be covered with Blackpool in town.
Accrington vs Newport
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
It feels like League Two's basement boys NEWPORT are a little too big at Accrington.
They prop up the division on five points, they have only won one of their 11 league games and lost the last three but their schedule has been very tricky.
Their last three games have come against Swindon, Chesterfield and Gillingham, two of the top four and one of the pre-season favourites for the title.
They have also played MK Dons (one of the other title favourites), Grimsby (3rd), Salford (6th), Darrell Clarke’s Bristol Rovers (12th) and Cambridge (8th).
That’s a brutal run of games.
The other three fixtures have come against Notts County (10th), Crawley and Tranmere and somewhat unsurprisingly, this is where all of the Exiles points have come from.
County lost their best player and made some strange decisions at board level over the summer. Scott Lindsey was getting to grips with his squad when they lost to Newport at the beginning of August, to be fair he still is, and Tranmere are one of the worst sides in the division according to the underlying data.
Only one point separated Tranmere and Newport’s next opponents Accrington last season. This campaign, Accrington rank 22nd for expected goals (xG) and are over-performing their expected goals against (xGA).
Stanley did beat Colchester and MK Dons in back-to-back games in mid-September but those are their only two league wins all season (D3 L5).
John Doolan’s side have played two of the sides below them in the table (Cheltenham and Shrewsbury) and failed to win either, so backing Newport +0.5 on the ASIAN HANDICAP is the bet at a shade over evens - this bet the same as the double chance market.
Grimsby vs Colchester
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Under Danny Cowley last season, Colchester played away at sides in the top eight of League Two four times and didn’t win any (D1 L3). The aggregate score across those games was 12-3.
This campaign they have picked up five points on their travels all of which came in August. They drew at EFL newboys Barnet and Oldham, who were struggling to acclimatise at the time. The U's then beat the 10-men of Shrewsbury 2-0, one of only two league wins this term (D5 L4).
Crowley’s last two away games has seen his side beaten by Accrington and Fleetwood, conceding five goals in the process, and a trip to Blundell Park represents a much sterner test, although it must be acknowledged Colchester put six past Chesterfield in their last league game.
GRIMSBY start the weekend in third, they have only lost twice in the league this term, scored the most goals (23), top the xG charts (20.36) and have shipped fifth fewest xGA (10.8).
At 17/20, backing the hosts TO WIN appeals. They have won their last two league games by an aggregate scoreline of 9-1.
Odds correct at 1130 BST (10/10/25)
Odds correct at 1700 BST (09/10/25) *unless stated otherwise
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