Football betting tips: EFL
2.5pts Hull-Draw (Double Chance) vs Southampton (15:00) at 11/10 (General)
1pt (total stake) Ellis Simms, Ashley Fletcher and Aaron Drinan anytime goalscorer Trixie at 21/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt (total stake) James Bree, Zak Sturge and Barry Bannan card Trixie at 94/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
*Both Trixies kick off at 12:30
Two separate Trixies got up last weekend. That is four out of six selections. A real collector's item.
If ain't quite broke, don’t fix it. So, I’ve got another couple lined up for a full slate of English Football League action.
I’ve picked three cynical players at decent prices in games with card-happy referees and for the goalscorer Trixie I’m hoping the winning formula will be picking the talisman of sides involved in games most likely to be goal-heavy based on the overs odds.
First stop, though, is St Mary's for my Nap.
Southampton vs Hull
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
A story as old as time.
Results are bad. Manager gets sacked. Results pick up. Interim manager gets hired. Results drop off.
Internet sensation Will Still was sacked following a haul of 12 points from 13 games. Tonda Eckert took charge of Southampton, won four of their next five games and got the job on a permanent basis.
Saints have won three of nine matches in all competitions since, one of which came against League One strugglers Doncaster in the FA Cup last weekend. They raced into a three-goal lead but almost threw it away.
The expected goals (xG) data under both managers is near enough identical, with the xG difference per game unchanged at +0.35.
It's hard to make a case for Southampton to win this weekend, especially at odds-on.
In recent league games, they have gone off odds-on against Millwall (drew), Oxford (lost), Norwich (lost) and West Brom (won).
Opponents HULL have won six of their last nine (D1 L2) and can be backed at 11/10 TO-WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE.
The visitors sit outside the play-offs on goal-difference and have only lost two of 12 games (W7 D3) against sides in the bottom half.
Anytime goalscorer Trixie
- Coventry vs Leicester: Ellis Simms (Saturday, 12:30)
- Barnsley vs Blackpool: Ashley Fletcher (Saturday, 15:00)
- Swindon vs Salford: Aaron Drinan (Saturday, 15:00)
According to the prices, no EFL game is more likely to see at least three goals this weekend than Coventry’s clash with Leicester.
It makes sense, Coventry have netted 57 goals this season (2.2 per game) and opponents Leicester have conceded the third-most in the Championship.
ELLIS SIMMS looks the most likely TO SCORE ANYTIME for the hosts. Sky Bet have the best price at 13/8.
He has netted in each of his last two league starts - taking a combined total of nine shots - and has scored 10 goals in all competitions this season.
Simms dropped to the bench in the FA Cup defeat by Stoke last weekend and should return, but Haji Wright may lead the attack so act accordingly.
The next leg comes from League One where Barnsley host Blackpool.
ASHLEY FLETCHER is back at Oakwell. He was part of the class of 2015/16 play-off final and Football League Trophy winners. Two trips to Wembley, two wins and he scored in both.
Fletcher was actually preferred to Ivan Toney up-front alongside Sam Winnall in both finals which sounds unbelievable now. Football though, ey. The Barnsley manager Conor Hourihane was the Reds skipper that season and Marc Roberts - now in his second spell at Oakwell - was a regular.
Anyway, that bit of narrative alongside Fletcher’s fine form and the Reds defensive woes is why his price of 9/4 with Sky Bet TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals.
Hourihane’s taken charge of 41 Barnsley games with his side keeping only two clean sheets and conceding two or more goals 61% of the time.
Fletcher’s into double figures for goals in League One - one off last season's tally - and has 14 in all competitions. He's probably worth a look in the third tier's top goalscorer market as well.
Goals should be expected when Swindon welcome Salford on Saturday. Both teams to score is 8/13 generally and overs is odds on.
At 13/8 generally, I think I’d rather back the division's second top goalscorer TO SCORE ANYTIME to complete the Trixie.
AARON DRINAN has 13 goals in League Two, one behind Bromley’s Michael Cheek, and 16 in all competitions.
He’s netted three in his last three league appearances, scored in the reverse and has a couple of braces as well.
Opponents Salford are unbeaten in seven league games (W5) but have only kept one clean sheet in 11 games against top-half sides (19 GA).
Player Card Trixie
- Watford vs Millwall: Zak Sturge (Saturday, 12:30)
- Charlton vs Sheff Utd: James Bree (Saturday, 15:00)
- Sheff Wed vs Portsmouth: Barry Bannan (Saturday, 15:00)
Ruebyn Ricardo is one of the EFL’s most card-happy officials. He has averaged 4.59 cards a game this season in the Championship and dished out seven cards or more in two of his last four appearances.
He is the referee for Watford against Millwall where visiting full-back ZAK STURGE is the standout price TO BE CARDED at 10/3. He has only made 32 career appearances, so take his cards per 90 average of 0.43 with a pinch of salt.
That said, Sturge has seven cards this term and three in his last three Championship appearances.
Oliver Langord has the whistle at The Valley, another one of the EFL’s finest. He has averaged 4.45Y and 0.09R cards per game this term, given no fewer than two in a game and a high of 10.
JAMES BREE has a career cards per 90 average of 0.08 and based on that should be at least 12/1 TO BE CARDED this weekend. But under Nathan Jones this season he has picked up six cards - including two in his last two appearances - in 18 starts.
I think Joe Townsend might have touted him at the weekend, nonetheless, this price is a cracker (6/1 with bet365, 16/5 with Coral/Ladbrokes) and with a card happy referee, I’d be shocked if this bet doesn't give us a run for our money.
The final leg of the Trixie comes from Hillsborough where BARRY BANNAN is 17/4 TO BE CARDED.
He has got six bookings this season, two in his last four appearances, seven last season and 12 the season before. All told, since the Owls return to the Championship, Bannan’s cards per 90 average is 0.27 which makes this price too big.
Sheffield Wednesday host Portsmouth and although neither side are particularly card happy, it feels like a big game.
The visitors start the weekend a point above the drop zone - they do have two games in hand - and are expected to get a result in S6 which should spice up proceedings.
Plus referee John Busby is the best in the division for cards (of those to take charge of five or more games).
Odds correct at 15:15 BST (15/01/26)
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