Jimmy’s Punt 25/26: Staked 172.5pts | Returned 184.79pts | P/L +12.29pts | ROI 7%
Football betting tips: EFL
Over 2.5 treble (kicks off Friday 20:00)
1pt Over 2.5 goals treble in Derby vs West Brom, Hull vs Swansea & QPR vs Wrexham at 10/1 (bet365)
Anytime goalscorer Trixie (kicks off Thursday 20:00 - remaining two selections Saturday 15:00)
1pt (Total stake) Adam Reach, Jack Marriott & Dom Ballard anytime goalscorer Trixie at 120/1 (Sky Bet)
Card Trixie (Kicks off Friday 20:00)
1pt (Total stake) Krystian Bielik, Taylor Gardner-Hickman & Amadou Mbengue card Trixie at 109/1 (Sky Bet)
Last weekend's goalscorer Trixie got up. I’ve watched the goals back and let me tell you it was a fluke.
Aaron Drinan’s goal was a good, solid consolation header but Ashley Fletcher’s equaliser at Oakwell took a deflection and Ellis Simms’ equaliser at Leicester… Well, if you haven’t already, just give it a watch.
But hey, they all count.
Ellis Simms, bagsman. 💼 pic.twitter.com/O4c1HPZLb3
— Coventry City (@Coventry_City) January 18, 2026
The plan for this weekend was to rinse and repeat that winning formula. Have a look at the shortest priced over 2.5 games and take the value in the goalscorer market.
The thing is, last weekend’s most goalsie games all involved strikers in red-hot form and those strikers were all backable prices.
The schedule hasn’t been so kind this weekend but not to worry. When I was looking for goalscorers, three over 2.5 goals prices stood out so the goalscorer Trixie became an over 2.5 goals treble this weekend.
I do actually have a goalscorer Trixie as well and a card Trixie too for good measure.
Over 2.5 Goals Treble
- Derby vs West Brom (Friday, 20:00)
- Hull vs Swansea (Saturday, 15:00)
- QPR vs Wrexham (Saturday, 15:00)
Eric Ramsay’s reign at The Hawthorns has started disastrously. Two games, two defeats and eight goals conceded.
West Brom had a good, albeit brief, spell against Middlesbrough but lost the topsy-turvy game late on and were battered 5-0 by relegation rivals Norwich in midweek.
Heading into the weekend, the Baggies are only three points above the drop and some firms are offering 9/1 for them to go down (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power). Just saying.
The combined expected goals (xG) for both of those games came to 4.24 - if you are into that sort of thing - so there is a whiff of unsustainability when it comes to goals. That said OVER 2.5 GOALS is generally 11/8 here which feels too big.
The visitors have only won two of their games since Christmas Day, not kept a clean sheet in any of those seven matches and only failed to score in two.
In the simplest sense, this price is value based on Derby’s results as well.
Half of the Rams' 28 games have seen at least three goals, as have four of their last six and 12 of their last 17 games since the start of November.
A game involving Hull with OVERS priced at 11/10? Something seems fishy.
Hull have covered this line on their own in almost a quarter of their matches (22.22%) - only Coventry (61) and Ipswich (47) have scored more than the Tigers in the Championship this season (45).
In total 63% of the hosts' league games have seen this bet click this campaign.
Under Vitor Matos, seven of Swansea’s 13 games have seen at least three goals, including three of the last four.
On the road, three of the five games have gone overs with West Brom, Stoke and Millwall scoring multiple goals.
The final stop for goals is Loftus Road.
Don't let back-to-back stalemates on the road for QPR deter you - although it is very easily done - this Hoops side like a shoot-out and at 11/10, I wouldn’t put anyone off OVER 2.5 GOALS as a single.
At home, QPR’s last nine games have seen this bet click, in fact 11 of their 13 league games on their own patch have gone overs. Only the clashes with Stoke (second best defence in the league) and Oxford didn’t.
Wrexham games are also good for goals, only two of their last nine games failed to hit the three-goal threshold.
The worry is their tendency to go defensive away from home. Nine of Phil Parkinson’s side's 13 Championship away games have gone unders.
So, it ultimately boils down to a choice between the goal-laden home team or stingy travellers. I’m going with the hosts, besides each of Wrexham’s last five aways have either gone overs or within a goal.
Anytime Goalscorer Trixie
- Lincoln vs Burton: Adam Reach (Thursday, 20:00)
- Reading vs Barnsley: Jack Marriott (Saturday, 15:00)
- Bolton vs Leyton Orient: Dom Ballard (Saturday, 15:00)
ADAM REACH is 10/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME when Lincoln hosts Burton on Thursday evening in League One.
He has four goals this campaign - three of which have come in his last four league appearances - and with a goals per 90 average of 0.22 I was expecting a price of around 5/1 here, which is the case with some firms.
The thing is, half of Reach’s goals and two thirds of his shots this season have come from range.
For any ordinary player - maybe with the exception of Scott Twine or Gus Hamer - I would say this strike rate is simply unsustainable.
Not Reach. He’s renowned for scoring worldies.
Here is the volley at Barnsley which started the hotstreak. He went within a whisker from outside the box in that game in the first half as well.
Absolutely sensational volley from Adam Reach! 🚀
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) December 29, 2025
Perfect connection smashing in off the underside of the bar for Lincoln City pic.twitter.com/H14TP4i0Tl
Opponents Burton haven’t kept a clean sheet in the league in six games and rank sixth for shots conceded from outside the box.
Next stop is the Madejski where Reading welcome Barnsley and as long as the Reds are involved, goals should be expected.
JACK MARRIOTT is the Royals top scorer with nine league goals and has netted in four of his last six appearances.
At 7/4 his price TO SCORE ANYTIME is too big as he has a career goals per 90 average of 0.47.
DOM BALLARD completes the Trixie at a tasty 3/1 for his side's trip to Bolton.
Ballard netted a hat-trick in Leyton Orient’s last game - his second of the season - and had two goals disallowed as well.
The division's top scorer will fancy his chances on Saturday and is a cracking price to score, regardless of the opposition.
Player Card Trixie
- Derby vs West Brom: Krystian Bielik (Friday, 20:00)
- Blackburn vs Watford: Taylor Gardner-Hickman (Saturday, 15:00)
- QPR vs Wrexham: Amadou Mbengue (Saturday, 15:00)
KRYSTIAN BIELIK is 4/1 TO BE CARDED in West Brom’s trip to Derby.
Under new Baggies boss Ramsay, Bielik has started both games in central midfield and picked up one card.
Across his career, Bielik has a cards per 90 average of 0.34 and it is worth noting played large spells at his last club Birmingham in central defence.
So, considering his career cards average, the position he is playing currently and even his injury history, I expected around 2/1 on Friday evening. Oh, and he is playing against one of his former employers.
The referee is good for flashing the cards and Derby are the most carded side in the Championship, so there should be a few here.
Anthony Backhouse has averaged over 4.5 cards a game this season and dished out five or more in four of his last five appearances.
The next card comes via Blackburn’s clash with Watford where I was shocked to learn that TAYLOR GARDNER-HICKMAN hasn’t played for West Brom in three seasons. I thought he'd be on the books there for another decade at least.
He's picked up at least seven cards in each of the three seasons - at Bristol City, Birmingham and now Blackburn - at a cards per 90 average of 0.37. At the Baggies it was only 0.25.
At 3/1 Gardner-Hickman’s price TO BE CARDED is too big.
The final selection is as straightforward as they come.
AMADOU MBENGUE is 9/2 TO BE CARDED and takes the card Trixie to 109/1 with Sky Bet.
This is a player who loves a card, a big price and an obliging referee. The only thing the angle is lacking is a direct opponent who draws heaps of cards but you can’t always have it all.
Mbengue has a career cards per 90 average of 0.32 so 5/2 would have been apt.
He’s picked up nine cards this term, putting him within a whisker of the 10 he got last season, and referee Oliver Langford won’t stand for any of his hijinks.
This is a referee who has dished out 55Y and 3R cards in 12 Championship appearances this term, eight of which came in his last appearance (6Y 2R).
He gets so excited to send players off, he drops the card as he is rushing to get it out of his pocket.
Odds correct at 14:50 GMT (22/01/26)
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