- Jimmy’s Punt: Staked 257.4pts | Returned 267.34pts | P/L +9.94pts | ROI 4%
Football betting tips: Sunday
Sunday 15:15
2pts Rayo Vallecano +1.75 Asian Handicap vs Real Madrid at 31/40 (bet365)
0.5pts Rayo Vallecano to win at 10/1 (Betfair)
My tipping has been honking this past week or so.
I went Atletico double chance Tuesday, they lost. I backed unders at Bayern on Wednesday and it was the only Champions League 20:00 game of the night to go overs. Same night, Mohammed Salah goal or assist was the bet, he gets hooked and his replacement Harvey Elliott scored within a minute. Then on Thursday, for Manchester United’s trip to Real Sociedad I was on cards, yellow and red expecting at least four. There were two.
It is what it is.
The great Barney Curley always said when taking the bookies to the cleaners, give them all you got and when you’re up against it, rein it in (or something like that).
Given my form, I have done the latter this weekend. I have a few angles from the EFL and La Liga, kicking off with a pick in League One.
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
- Kick-off time: 15:15 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Premier Sports 2
- Home 2/7 | Draw 9/2 | Away 17/2
Let me welcome you to my personal turmoil - getting against the Champions League big boys.
In midweek, 16 teams were in UCL action and 15 of them return to domestic duty this weekend.
But who are the best sides to get against?
I’ll spare you all the dull details of whittling down 16 teams into a couple of selections, but a few things were considered:
- Price (obviously)
- Form (obviously)
- Record post-Champions League games this season
- Next opponents’ credentials
- Is their Champions League game in the balance?
And by process of elimination, I have determined RAYO VALLECANO to be the most likely to get a result at Real Madrid.
The visitors are 7th in La Liga, eight points off fifth spot and have a fair record (W0 D2 L2) against the big-three (Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid).
They lost 1-0 at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys to a Robert Lewandowski penalty (xG 2.56-0.97), while also being beaten 2-1 in the reverse despite taking the lead (xG 0.37-1.41).
At home to Atleti, Los Franjirrojos drew 1-1 but smashed them on the expected goals (xG) count 1.85-0.53.
The reverse of this fixture ended 3-3 but again, Rayo Vallecano won the xG battle 1.63-0.69 and that was sandwiched in between a Champions League match and FIFA Club World Cup duty for Los Blancos.
Crucially, this is a derby, and I am never keen about backing a favourite in these types of games - a line straight from the muggy punters’ mantra.
Real Madrid’s record in this match-up isn’t the best - not since Rafa Benitez left the Bernabeu anyway.
Across the last ten head-to-heads, Los Blancos have dropped points on five occasions and although they have won three, those victories all came by a one-goal margin.
Backing the visitors +1.75 on the ASIAN HANDICAP is the first bet.
The last three meetings have ended all-square and visiting boss Inigo Perez is yet to lose against Carlo Ancelotti (D2). He clearly gets it.
It looks like a perfect time to play Real as well. They have only won one of their last five in the league and have been a little groggy after European nights.
Sunday’s hosts have played ten games post-Champions League this season (W6 D2 L2), dropping points in three of their last five. This includes the reverse (1/2 to win), a trip to Espanyol (3/10) and at Osasuna (1/2).
I cannot resist a punt on RAYO VALLECANO TO WIN at a bigger price, just in case.
Already advised
Saturday 15:00
2.5pts Mansfield double chance vs Stevenage at 4/5 (bet365, William Hill)
Stevenage vs Mansfield
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home Evens | Draw 21/10 | Away 5/2
Nigel Clough’s MANSFIELD are streaky.
They started the League One campaign unbelievably well, losing only two of their opening 12 fixtures. They then lost five on the spin, then won four of their following six fixtures and haven’t won any of their 11 domestic matches since (D3 L8).
And yet, I think a turn of form might be on the horizon.
After the 3-0 defeat against Lincoln, Mansfield lost at Wrexham and drew against Burton and Wigan.
The Stags were competitive against Wrexham (xG 0.68-1.21) and desperately unlucky not to get three points against Burton or Wigan.
Across those games, Mansfield had 43 shots, nine on target, missed a penalty and generated a combined xG of 3.47 but only conceded two shots on target and 0.57 xGA; how’s your luck?
The rotten form has left Mansfield seven points above the dotted line and with Crawley, Cambridge and Burton’s recent improvement, the Stags aren’t out of the woods yet.
The same cannot be said about Stevenage.
Alex Revell has done a cracking job. The rookie manager inherited a one-dimensional squad punching well above their weight and has secured their League One status with 12 games to spare.
Backing the visitors WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE is the bet.
Barcelona vs Osasuna
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Premier Sports 2
- Home 1/5 | Draw 6/1 | Away 10/1
Mateo Busquets Ferrer is the referee for Barcelona’s game against Osasuna and he certainly doesn’t mind flashing the cards.
He’s the second most card happy referee in La Liga averaging 5.79Y and 0.36R cards a game and it is the latter which interests me here.
In 65 appearances he has dished out 26 red cards (0.4 per game) and one to each team on two occasions.
Osasuna have been involved in five games that have seen a red card this term, Barcelona have been involved in eight across 41 matches in all competitions, which includes three in their last six, and this fixture has thrown up five reds across the last six meetings.
Backing A RED CARD in the match and A RED CARD EACH TEAM at 5/1 and 100/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power appeals.
GAVI’s price TO BE CARDED is simply too big with bet365.
The midfielder has missed the last two league games with illness but was touch and go for the Benfica clash but could start here.
If he doesn’t, bet365 will void the bet so there isn’t much risk here.
Gavi has 30Y and 1R across 96 league appearances for Barca, that is a cards per 90 average of 0.45 which roughly translates to a price of 23/20.
Given the referee, his price of 33/1 TO BE SENT OFF is also worth a tout.
Odds correct at 1000 GMT (07/03/25) unless otherwise stated
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