- Jimmy's Punt: Staked: 298.9pts | Returned: 304.78 | P/L +5.88pts | ROI 2%
Football betting tips: Easter best bets
Saturday (16:00)
0.5pt Le Havre to beat PSG at 16/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Le Havre win and Mathieu Gorgelin card at 110/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Le Havre double chance and Gorgelin card at 45/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Le Havre win and Arthur Desmas card at 110/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Le Havre double chance and Desmas card at 45/1 (bet365)
Easter weekend, not quite the culmination of the EFL campaign but a monumental few days.
The first round of fixtures take place on Good Friday and we’re at that stage of the season where the standings should be taken with a pinch of salt. If you can get a grasp of how certain sides respond to pressure, there is money to be made.
With that in mind, I’ve got some strong fancies at big ol’ prices from the EFL before a trip over to France.
The first stop is League Two, where there is a top-of-the-table clash on Thursday night.
PSG vs Le Havre
- Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/8 | Draw 15/2 | Away 14/1
PSG have won Ligue 1 for the last four seasons, winning the title with six games to spare this term.
Last season, they had three games remaining, in 22/23 it was just one, and the season before they won it with four left.
What interests me here is PSG’s record across those eight pointless domestic fixtures is W4 D2 L2.
In almost identical circumstances last term (the game after Champions League duties) PSG lost at home to 6/1 Toulouse. The season before 7/1 Clermont beat them too; can you see where I'm going with this?
The league’s finished and with a spot in the Champions League semi-finals, it is not outrageous to fancy a shock result in Paris on Saturday.
LE HAVRE are three points from safety and have picked up results in four of their last six.
At a big price TO WIN who says no? PSG 8-0 incoming…
I had a quick glance at the referee appointment, just in case and it turns out he is prone to a keeper card.
Mathieu Vernice has booked four keepers in 12 Ligue 1 appearances this season, all of which coming across his last six matches.
Three of the cards went the way of Brice Samba and all bar one of the four was for time wasting.
With this in mind, it brings me great pleasure to say I’ll be combining LE HAVRE TO WIN and DOUBLE CHANCE alongside their keeper to be carded at huge prices.
MATHIEU GORGELIN has started the last two games but made two errors against Rennes so could potentially be dropped for ARTHUR DESMAS.
The pair have four cards between them this season so covering them both via bet365’s bet builder is absolutely worth doing, safe in the knowledge the necessary bets will be void.
WATCH: TOP 16 VERDICTS FOR THE WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP
Already advised
0.5pts Tayo Adaramola to be carded in Bradford vs Notts County at 5/1 (bet365)
Friday (15:00)
0.5pt Plymouth to beat Middlesbrough at 15/2 (Betvictor)
1.5pts Michael Cheek to score anytime in Bromley vs Morecambe at 13/8 (bet365)
2pts Swindon to beat Grimsby at 7/2 (bet365)
Bradford vs Notts County
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 11/10 | Draw 21/10 | Away 11/5
Bradford host Notts County and with the presence of TV cameras comes a rare opportunity to back League Two players to be booked, a chance I clearly cannot pass up.
Bet365 are offering 5/1 about TAYO ADARAMOLA TO BE CARDED which looks large.
Bradford's Crystal Palace loanee is still in the infancy of his professional career and as is so often the case with such players, his first taste of lower league football has seen him pick up a few bookings.
Adaramola spent the first half of the season on loan in League One with Stockport and was carded in one of three starts.
Since dropping down to the fourth tier, he has picked up three bookings in 11 starts which puts him on four in 14 across the season.
Assuming Adaramola continues at left wing-back he will be opposing Nick Tsaroulla, Notts County’s most fouled, fit player (1.3). With two cards in his last two appearances, backing Adaramola to get another appeals.
Middlesbrough vs Plymouth
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Friday
- Home 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Away 7/1
Usually I get the freedom of the EFL to pick bets for this column.
Not this weekend, it’s Good Friday and everyone’s sticking their nose in.
Joe Townsend is along similar lines at the Riverside, I am not sure if that is a good omen or a bad one to be honest…
At home against the current bottom six, Middlesbrough have won five of 11 games (W5 D4 L2) and last season they dropped points in two thirds of their 12 clashes against the basement boys.
Michael Carrick’s side have been known to struggle against teams who aren’t bothered about possession.
The Pilgrims average 43.8%, the third lowest in the Championship, and that figure has gone down since Miron Muslic took charge.
Crudely, I have gone back and checked Middlesbrough’s results against second-tier sides averaging under 44% since Carrick took charge in October 2022.
Across 23 games, Boro have W13 D5 L5 losing at Millwall and Derby this term.
So, Boro’s 56% win percentage against possession shy teams under Carrick and 39% win percentage against bottom six teams across the last two seasons provides the foundation of this angle.
The bet is PLYMOUTH TO WIN.
In terms of price, the visitors are the biggest any bottom six side has been at Boro since Portsmouth went there and drew in August.
Muslic’s men are making a real fist of survival taking 10 points from the last 18 on offer and the nature of their most recent win over Sheffield United encapsulates their never say die attitude, scoring twice in the final 10 minutes.
Part of the reason Plymouth are such a big price is because of their away form. They are the worst travellers in the division, but seven of the nine points they have won on the road have come across their last eight games.
Bromley vs Morecambe
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Friday
- Home 10/11 | Draw 12/5 | Away 5/2
MICHAEL CHEEK is four clear of the competition at the top of League Two’s goalscoring charts.
He netted a brace of penalties against Accrington to move to 21 goals for the campaign and his price TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals here.
The majority of Cheek’s goals have come against the poorer sides in the division.
Bromley are 14th in the table and in 17 appearances against sides currently below them, Cheek has scored 11 goals. In 19 games against the teams above, he’s scored seven.
Grimsby vs Swindon
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Friday
- Home 4/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 29/10
Ian Holloway took charge at SWINDON at the end of October. He has overseen 29 games and picked up 46 points (W12 D10 L7), the seventh most in the division. Some job.
His side head to Grimsby on Friday, the side actually in seventh in League Two.
The visitors have been priced as a side in mid-table mediocrity. Granted, that is where they are in the real table but their form under Holloway paints a very different picture.
The Robins have won three on the spin and the trip to Blundell Park is personal for Holloway.
According to my research, the Mariners faithful don’t like their former manager, nor is Holloway very fond of them.
Aside from the price, the added bit of narrative is all the encouragement I need to back SWINDON TO WIN.
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (16/04/25)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
