Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: Matchday 35
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday
1pt Kai Havertz to be carded in Spurs vs Arsenal (14:00) at 7/2 (Betfair, Paddys)
1.5pts Alex Scott to commit 2+ fouls in Bournemouth vs Brighton (14:00) at 13/10 (BetVictor)
Already advised:
1pt Michail Antonio to score anytime in West Ham vs Liverpool (12:30) at 18/5 (Unibet)
1pt Jean-Philippe Mateta to score anytime in Fulham vs C Palace (15:00) at 5/2 (Betfair, Paddys)
1pt Harry Maguire to score anytime in Man Utd vs Burnley (15:00) at 17/2 (Sky Bet)
2pts Jordan Pickford 3+ saves in Everton vs Brentford (17:30) at 10/11 (bet365)
2pts Aston Villa to beat Chelsea (20:00) at 6/5 (Betfair, William Hill)
We had a 'close but no cigar' midweek, making a small profit (+0.2pts), but it could've been more. Harry Maguire scored from his only shot on goal, when we needed him to attempt two shots, and Nicolas 'MISS' Jackson was at it again for Chelsea, squandering chances when we needed the Blues to score and lose.
- Jake Osgathorpe is +63.3pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
Anyhow, it feels as though we are banging hard on the door of a big profit weekend, so lets hope that it's this round of fixtures.
Tottenham vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 10/3 | Draw 3/1 | Away 8/11
Arsenal are looking good right now, top of the table and fresh off a 5-0 thrashing of Chelsea, but 8/11 to win at Tottenham in a huge derby game? No thanks. That's way too short for me, especially with Spurs having two weeks off while Arsenal have played four times.
It's a huge stakes game for both, it's a derby game and we have Michael Oliver at the whistle. All of that equals cards. Oliver averages 4.4 cards per game, and that means total card prices are incredibly short. 60+ booking points is odds on, so we'll delve into player cards for value.
KAI HAVERTZ jumped out at 7/2 TO BE CARDED, with the German averaging 0.36 cards per 90 this season.
He's picked up six yellows in his last 16 matches, and overall this season, seven of his 11 yellows have come in big games that were very competitive - vs Man City, vs Tottenham, vs Liverpool twice, vs Porto twice and vs Aston Villa.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Bournemouth vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 6/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away 19/10
I love me some Bournemouth fouls. Their high-pressing style means they commit an awful lot, the joint most in the division to be exact, and a game against Brighton should only see the foul count ramp up as Roberto De Zerbi's men wait for the press before starting their patterns.
Justin Kluivert's price has finally collapsed, he's 4/11 in places to commit 2+ fouls, Antoine Semenyo is 1/2, but ALEX SCOTT is 13/10 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS which makes great appeal - he's 4/7 in places.
Due to personnel issues Scott was deployed in the number 10 position in midweek, with Kluivert out left, a change from his deeper role earlier in the season. He committed two fouls as a result, and with Milos Kerkez still suspended and Luis Sinisterra and Marcus Tavernier still injured, he should again start in that position.
Overall this season he has averaged 1.51 fouls per 90, and I suspect had he been playing further up the pitch for longer that average would be higher.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 9/1 | Draw 9/2 | Away 2/7
Nottingham Forest are top of the league for referee complaints, closely followed by Wolves, but that's not the table that will determine their survival this season. In THAT table they sit fourth bottom and one point above Luton after losing 2-0 to Everton last weekend.
A visit of Manchester City is not ideal, with Pep Guardiola's title chasers thrashing Brighton in midweek four a fourth straight win, scoring four or more in all four. Only Liverpool have beaten Forest at the City Ground in the last five league games, but the desperation of Nuno's side could see them comfortably beaten here.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 0-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
West Ham vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Home 9/2 | Draw 15/4 | Away 1/2
It's been a torrid few weeks Liverpool and this game really does represent last chance saloon territory for their title chances. Lose, and it most certainly is curtains in that regard. As for West Ham, their own patchy form (one win in seven league games) means they sit eighth having played more games than their European rivals, so David Moyes' men cannot afford any more slip ups.
Both sides should go all-out here then, and that should result in goals, and I just can't turn down the 18/5 available for MICHAIL ANTONIO TO SCORE ANYTIME here. The Jamaican has been in fine form since returning from injury, averaging 0.62 xG per 90, and should continue to lead the line for the Hammers even if Jarrod Bowen is fit enough to start.
Antonio is perfect for playing against teams with a high line, not only due to his pace but also his strength and hold-up-ability. Liverpool's defence looked desperate in the Merseyside derby with Everton playing direct, and have allowed 1.48 xGA per game on their travels this term, so Antonio should get some chances.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Manchester United vs Burnley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/2 | Draw 15/4 | Away 19/4
I'm very annoyed with Harry Maguire. Having backed him to take 2+ shots in midweek when he scored with his only attempt was a blow, but the price for him to score anytime was too short for my liking at 6/1.
However, at a bigger 17/2 this weekend against the second worst defensive team from set-pieces, I'm going to pull the trigger and make MAGUIRE TO SCORE ANYTIME a selection.
He has now scored in back-to-back games and that's not a surprise given his attacking output has rocketed. He has taken 17 shots in his last 10 outings for Manchester United, scoring three times. He had managed just nine shots in his previous 20 appearances for United.
Maguire is a set-piece monster, and Burnley have conceded the second most goals from dead-ball situations (16) and the second most xG (14.52), so he can take advantage of another good match-up to make it three straight games with a goal.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-2 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Newcastle vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 2/9 | Draw 11/2 | Away 10/1
This should be a question of how many. Sheffield United are officially the worst defensive team the Premier League has ever seen after conceding four in midweek, with the Blades just eight goals shy of shipping 100. That number, 'eight', will bring back bad memories, with Newcastle hitting them for that many in the reverse game.
I don't quite think the Magpies will hit the net that much, but we should see a fairly routine home win for Eddie Howe's side, who are 8/11 to score three or more on Saturday.
Score prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 12/5
Palace are a daaaangerous team right now. Oliver Glasner has them playing some exceptional stuff, with their attack absolutely purring with Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise supporting the red-hot JEAN-PHILIPPE MATETA.
I have no idea what Glasner has done or said to Mateta, but he looks like a world beater at the moment. I mean, it does help when he has his best players fit to supply his striker, but Mateta is really impressing.
He's netted eight goals in his last nine appearances, and can be backed TO SCORE ANYTIME at a huge 5/2 here. Across those nine games he has averaged 0.63 xG per 90, with this bet landing six times.
It's pretty simple really; if he continues to get the same level of service his incredible goalscoring purple patch will continue.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-2 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Everton vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 7/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 15/8
Both Everton and Brentford are looking very cosy right now after back-to-back wins, meaning they now sit eight and 10 points above the relegation zone respectively. They are all-but safe, and now it's all about carrying momentum into next season.
But, I think I've found an angle around JORDAN PICKFORD making 3+ SAVES at 10/11, with the same bet 8/13 in places.
The Everton stopper has been incredibly busy all season long, and is averaging 3.1 saves per 90. This bet has landed in seven of his last nine outings, with the England number one making 36 saves in that time (4.0 per 90).
Brentford have been excellent in attack for a while now, and have forced their opponent's goalkeeper into an average of 3.1 saves per 90 across their last 10 matches, with this bet landing in seven of those.
Score prediction: Everton 1-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
BuildABet @ 33/1
Both teams to score
James Tarkowski 2+ shots
Ethan Pinnock 2+ shots
Aston Villa vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Home 11/10 | Draw 14/5 | Away 21/10
Top four chasing ASTON VILLA are a bet TO WIN here. The price is simply too big to turn down, and this selection isn't a knee-jerk reaction to Chelsea's 5-0 thrashing at Arsenal in midweek.
Personnel-wise, the Blues do welcome back top scorer Cole Palmer, but are set to be without two crucial players in Enzo Fernandez and Malo Gusto.
Villa welcome back linchpin Douglas Luiz and, in my opinion, have the more tactically astute manager in the dugout and greater motivation with a top-four finish and Champions League football within touching distance.
They have been excellent at Villa Park this season, winning 12 of 17 and averaging 2.15 xGF per home game, while Chelsea have won just one of nine away matches at sides in the top 12 conceding 22 goals - with that victory coming against nine-man Tottenham.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 52
- Man Utd 2-2 Burnley
- Newcastle 3-1 Sheff Utd
- Everton 1-2 Brentford
- Aston Villa 3-1 Chelsea
- Tottenham 1-2 Arsenal
- N Forest 0-3 Man City
Odds correct at 1230 BST (26/04/24)
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