Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 117.75pts | Returned 138.53pts | P/L +28.87pts | ROI 25%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday 14:00
2pts Under 2.5 goals in Bournemouth vs N Forest at 19/20 (William Hill)
1pt Tyler Adams to be carded in Bournemouth vs N Forest at 19/5 (William Hill)
1.5pts Matty Cash to be carded in Aston Villa vs Man City at 29/10 (William Hill)
Sunday 16:30 - Everton vs Tottenham
1.5pts Pedro Porro to be carded at 16/5 (Betway)
Last weekend was one of being on the right thread but not being rewarded.
We were on Trevoh Chalobah to score anytime as Chelsea went to Nottingham Forest, with it anyone's guess as to who his centre-back partner would be, and it was said partner who scored instead of our man. Right lines, wrong player.
Jake O'Brien committed two fouls up against Jeremy Doku but avoided a card, while Ryan Sessegnon committed four fouls and didn't have his name taken as Fulham lost to Arsenal in yet another no card game from Anthony Taylor. Double blow.
Mohammed Kudus committed two fouls and avoided a card on Sunday, but the biggest sickner came at Anfield, where we were on Matthijs de Ligt to score anytime and I even went out of my way to highlight Harry Maguire should he get the nod. He did, and he scored. Nightmare.
Monday was more 'close but no cigar' with Nathan Collins and Sepp van den Berg both having shots against West Ham but none on target, making it a second straight losing weekend.
Hopefully we bounce this weekend, as clearly we are on the right lines and thought path with the angles highlighted.
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Is there any stopping Arsenal? The Gunners look imperious at the moment.
They've won 10 of 12 in all competitions, scoring 27 times and conceding just three times. It's an incredible record and makes the 4/9 about them here look like value.
Crystal Palace were beaten in the Conference League by AEK Larnaca on Thursday, a shocking result, and now they have a short turnaround before visiting the title favourites. The Eagles under Oliver Glasner do tend to give Arsenal some issues though.
Last season they played three times, twice at the Emirates, and Palace scored five times, four coming on the road. The three games averaged five goals, and given the way Palace have been playing lately, a high-scoring game wouldn't be a surprise, but it's a no bet.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1115 BST (24/10/25)
Aston Villa vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
This bet is now automatic - the right back opposing Manchester City to be carded. This week it's MATTY CASH, and he's 29/10 TO BE CARDED.
It's the Jeremy Doku effect. The Belgian has been in scintillating form this season, drawing 2.50 fouls per 90, and has contributed to five opposing right-backs getting booked in eight league games this season, as well as two in three in the Champions League.
Cash has been booked twice this season in the league and once in the Europa League, with one of his cards coming against the equally tricky and direct Jack Grealish when up against Everton.
City are starting to put a run of good results and dominant performances together, making their price of 17/20 appeal, especially with Aston Villa's issues in attack. City win to nil at 13/5 (William Hill) is also worth a look, but we'll stick with Cash as the standout bet on Sunday.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1130 BST (24/10/25)
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Sean Dyche is back baby, and he returned with a bang in midweek, leading Nottingham Forest past Liga Portugal leaders Porto. That game saw Forest limit their visitors to just 0.60 xG in a much more solid defensive display, though in attack they mustered a grand total of eight shots.
It was Dyche-ball in full flow, and we should expect more of the same on Sunday, meaning UNDER 2.5 GOALS simply has to be backed at 19/20.
Not only do we have Forest likely playing more reserved and more controlled under their new manager, but they travel to face a Bournemouth team who are low-scoring at home anyway.
Since the start of last season, the Cherries' games at the Vitality Stadium have averaged just 2.08 goals per game, with 65% of matches going under 2.5.
Dyche's away games as Everton boss last season averaged just 2.10 goals and unders clicked in 70% of those contests, so at near even-money we have to take the under.
We'll also take TYLER ADAMS TO BE CARDED at 19/5 given his record, his opponent and the referee. Adams has collected four cards in eight games this season, will be up against the slippery Morgan Gibbs-White.
Sam Barrott is the man in the middle, and he's averaged 5.67 cards per game this season, so I wouldn't put anyone off a few card doubles.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1115 BST (24/10/25)
Wolves vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports F1
- Live odds, form and stats
Try picking the winner of this one. Wolves are bottom of the table and look really poor this season, losing tamely at Sunderland last time out. Burnley beat Leeds but were very fortunate to do so according to xG (BUR 0.45 - 2.63 LEE).
The Old Gold are the only winless team in the league after eight games, so you'd have to be especially brave to back them at odds-on here. Burnley have lost all of their away games but have played a tough schedule on their travels (TOT, MUN, MCI, AVL).
If anything I think the Clarets are value here at 10/3, but it's a no bet. I was tempted by Joao Gomes to be carded at 7/2 (bet365), but Burnley don't draw a lot of cards from their opponents - just 10 in eight games - especially from midfielders.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1155 BST (24/10/25)
Everton vs Tottenham
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Like with Doku, I'm always keen to back the right-back opposing Jack Grealish TO BE CARDED.
That means this week we're backing PEDRO PORRO at 16/5, though the 3/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral is still good value.
The Spaniard has been booked three times in all competitions this term, once against Doku which bodes well, while in the league he's averaging 1.41 fouls committed per 90.
That's good news for us, but this bet is mainly about Grealish's card-drawing ability. He's been fouled 29 times in his last six Everton appearances, with the opposing right back booked in five of those. His per 90 average this season is a whopping 4.21, unsurprisingly the most in the league.
It's an incredible record, but it makes complete sense, with Grealish given license to do what he wants, while his teammates feed him the ball at every opportunity.
I like this bet even more this weekend because of the way Tottenham will likely set up, playing in a submissive style as they continue to prioritise a solid defence over explosive attack.
I wouldn't put anyone off a home win here, with the Toffees performing brilliantly in their new stadium (W2 D2) and Spurs' results flattering them, with performances more in line with a bottom half team. Thomas Frank's men are averaging just 1.06 xGF per game this season which is not very good at all.
Score prediction: Everton 2-0 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1210 BST (24/10/25)
Already advised
Friday 20:00 - Leeds vs West Ham
2.5pts Joe Rodon 1+ total shot at 11/10 (bet365)
0.5pt Joe Rodon to score anytime at 18/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.25pt Joe Rodon to score first at 40/1 (General)
Saturday 15:00
2pts Dan Ballard 1+ total shot in Chelsea vs Sunderland at evens (bet365)
0.5pt Dan Ballard 1+ shot on target at 4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Dan Ballard to score anytime at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Newcastle win to nil vs Fulham at 15/8 (William Hill)
Saturday 17:30 - Manchester United vs Brighton
2pts Brighton or draw at 5/6 (General)
0.5pt Brighton to win at 5/2 (General)
Saturday 20:00 - Brentford vs Liverpool
1.5pt Igor Thiago 2+ fouls committed at 13/8 (bet365)
Leeds vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Well, West Ham were BAAAADD on Monday weren't they. A 2-0 home loss to a supposed fellow relegation rival, losing the shot count 22-7, the shot on target count 7-1, the big chances created 5-0 and the xG battle 2.37 - 0.35. It was a shellacking.
Nuno Espirito Santo's men now head north to face another supposed fellow relegation rival in what really does feel like must-win for the Hammers. Not only are they second bottom and three points from safety heading into gameweek nine, but their schedule is horrific after this up to Boxing Day (NEW, BUR, BOU, LIV, MUN, BHA, AVL, MCI).
Leeds' recent performance was a contrast to West Ham's despite the same result at Burnley, with Daniel Farke's men dominating every major statistical category and being incredibly unfortunate not to get a result (xG: BUR 0.45 - 2.63 LEE).
They are a tempting price at 10/11 on Friday, but we'll instead swing big and stick with the set-piece angle when it comes to the Hammers. While they didn't concede from a set-piece on Monday, that was more down to good fortune rather than Nuno having sorted them out.
The Bees racked up 1.04 xG from set-plays alone in that game, taking eight shots, with both centre-backs getting having an effort on goal. Unfortunately for us they were off-target, but the point still stands that the Hammers remain extremely vulnerable from set-pieces.
It's eight goals conceded, 50 shots faced and 5.10 xG allowed from dead-balls on the season, so we have to persist with this angle until it's magically fixed, meaning JOE RODON 1+ TOTAL SHOT is a standout bet at 11/10.
Leeds rank eighth for set-piece shots this season, scoring three times, and Rodon has had a shot in all of his last three league appearances, taking seven in total.
He's also scored in that time, netting against Bournemouth at Elland Road, so at a huge 18/1 we'll back RODON TO SCORE ANYTIME. He also netted for Wales against Belgium on international duty, so has his eye in right now.
That goal for his national team was the first of the game, so at 40/1 we'll have a smaller play on him TO SCORE FIRST.
The bottom line is he's becoming a huge aerial threat from attacking set-pieces, playing in a team who get off a lot of set-piece shots, against a team who can't keep any team out from set-pieces. All the prices look huge value in my book, and I'd back them down to 3/4, 10/1 and 25/1.
Score prediction: Leeds 1-0 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1800 BST (21/10/25)
Chelsea vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
My first thought with this game was 'Chelsea win to nil'. It's priced at 7/5 and the Blues, along with only keeping four clean sheets in 12 games across all competitions, have been shipping chances for fun of late.
Nottingham Forest put up 2.35 xG on them, Liverpool 1.95, Brighton 2.28, Man Utd 1.84, Brentford 1.43. I know there are some caveats in there, but still, those figures are worrying, and this season the Blues rank 13th best in terms of xGA conceded.
So, a change of approach - where are the Blues conceding chances from? Well, sorry to harp back to set-pieces, but the answer is - yep set-pieces.
No team in the Premier League this season has conceded more xG from dead-ball situations than Enzo Maresca's side. A whopping 42% of their total expected goals against have come from set-pieces, which is the highest rate in the league.
They have been fortunate not to have conceded more from dead-balls, with five teams conceding more goals than them despite the Blues topping the charts. This looks an avenue to attack, and Sunderland look a good team to take advantage of it.
Hard to break down and pacey on the counter attack, they should win enough corners and free-kicks to give their huge set-piece threats a chance to trot up from the back. Three of them have already scored this season.
DAN BALLARD is the obvious threat, and we simply have to back him to have just 1+ TOTAL SHOT at even money given everything discussed. The Northern Irishman has delivered in every league game bar one this season - with that failure coincidentally the game were were on him and he went off injured after eight minutes.
He's averaging a huge 2.32 shots per 90, while last season he registered a shot in 10 of his 15 Championship starts. Given the leaky nature of Chelsea's defending from set-pieces, I'll happily advise a couple of swings at big prices, with the 4/1 for 1+ SHOT ON TARGET and 16/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME, as I'd be sick if he were to score and we only claimed small profit on him having a shot.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1210 BST (23/10/25)
Newcastle vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
I really like the look of NEWCASTLE this season. They are built from the back, being tough to beat, and are carrying a dangerous threat in attack. Only Arsenal (0.60) have a better defensive process this season than the Magpies (0.73), and that can carry Eddie Howe's side to another WIN TO NIL here.
That defensive process comes despite a tough schedule that has seen them play six sides who finished in last season's top nine, while they have been dominant in their latest two European contests.
Fulham make the long trip north having been 1-0'd by the Arsenal last weekend as they continue to struggle creating chances. It's three straight defeats now for Marco Silva's side, with the Cottagers generating just 1.03 xGF per game across the campaign so far which ranks fifth worst.
Away from home that drops to 0.86 xGF per game, which, up against such a stern defence, could see them fire another blank.
It is also worth pointing out for those who will be hesitant given Newcastle played in midweek, that Howe rotated for that game, with Joelinton, Sandro Tonali and Anthony Elanga all given a rest, which should mean the hosts have plenty of juice on Saturday.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-0 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1225 BST (23/10/25)
Manchester United vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Manchester United at near even-money to beat Brighton? No thanks. Yes, Ruben Amorim's side were decent in victory at Anfield, but let's not forget that Liverpool generate a whopping 2.75 xG, hit the woodwork three times and missed four big chances.
United's defensive problems remain, with only Burnley, Nottingham Forest and West Ham conceding more xGA than the Red Devils, which is especially worrying.
So, with BRIGHTON preferring to play the big boys, we simply have to back them DOUBLE CHANCE and TO WIN at 5/6 and 5/2 respectively.
The Seagulls have been good away from home this season despite the results, winning the xG battle in three of their four away days and creating plenty of opportunities in all bar one - at Bournemouth.
Their three wins this season have all come against last season's top five, beating Manchester City and Newcastle at the Amex and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, which highlights what I mentioned above, that the Seagulls really do prefer to play against the big boys.
And, they love playing against United and especially at Old Trafford. Brighton have won six of the last seven head-to-heads in the league, including all three in United's back yard, so won't be fearful heading to the Theatre of Dreams.
They will be the opposite in fact, bold and full of confidence after beating a better team than United - Newcastle - last weekend.
It would be remiss of me not to mention the referee appointment here, our good old friend Anthony Taylor. He did us with a no card game last week, and those who want to take that chance again here would be well-rewarded, with it available at between 30 and 40/1 on Betfair, Paddy Power and Sky Bet.
However, while I was close to including it in the staking plan, I was put off by how card-laden United's home games (6.0 per game) and Brighton's away games (7.5) have been this season. They've been mental. So that had me slamming the breaks on and in fact looking the other way, at a big card game
Taylor is capable. Last season he had a 14 card game remember, and two eights. This season he's already had an eight and a six, so perhaps this could be a game to zig when everyone is zagging and take a big card line - Over 5.5 is 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair).
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1000 BST (24/10/25)
Brentford vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Saturday, 20:00 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
I wouldn't be too quick to say 'Liverpool are back' after beating Frankfurt in midweek. That was the perfect game to get some confidence though, with the Germans playing an open style and leaving plenty of space for the Reds to enjoy themselves.
This will be an altogether different kettle of fish, with Brentford highly likely to bombard Arne Slot's team with long-ball after long-throw after long-ball. That brings IGOR THIAGO into play.
We've discussed the Brazilian striker on these pages before, and he continues to be real eye-catcher in terms of being handful. He throws his weight around and has a kamikaze style to him that means he commits a lot of fouls, and that's the angle here.
I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw bet365 have him priced at 13/8 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS here. William Hill are 11/10 which is still excellent value, while other bookies have him as short as 4/9.
While he has cooled off slightly (1-0-1) in last three, I put that down to the opponent. The no foul game was against Manchester City, who dominated the ball and thus limited the number of long balls Brentford could play, against Manchester United Thiago had so much space whenever there was a direct pass that he had no one to foul, and the Bees played higher up the pitch than usual against West Ham.
Prior to that this bet had landed in all six games, while over the whole season he's averaging 2.37 fouls per 90. 13/8 simply has to be snapped up, especially with how open Liverpool will likely be in transition, with Thiago chasing down direct balls in bulldozing style.
Score prediction: Brentford 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1015 BST (24/10/25)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Home of This Week's Acca
- Football and other sports tips
- Download the Sporting Life app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
