Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 107.25pts | Returned 138.53pts | P/L +31.38pts | ROI 29%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Monday 20:00 - West Ham vs Brentford
0.5pt Sepp van den Berg to score anytime at 18/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Sepp van den Berg 1+ shot on target at 10/3 (bet365)
0.5pt Nathan Collins 1+ shot on target at 9/2 (bet365)
The international break is over and it's back to the meat and drink, the serious stuff.
We went into the break on the back of the first losing column of the season, but boy were we close to another big profit weekend - Malick Thiaw I'm looking at you...
Tipped at 12/1 to score against Nottingham Forest, the Newcastle defender squandered a chance with an xG of 0.47 - nearly 50/50. Centre-back scorers in Arsenal's win over West Ham also came close, with both Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori registering shots on target - the latter hitting the post too.
So we weren't a million miles away from profit, but we can't grumble about the position we are in after seven gameweeks.
I found this week's slate very tricky, Saturday in particular, and I've happily gone for a fair few no bets in the 3pm games where absolutely nothing appealed.
As ever, we've a classic CB scorer and some player cards to get us rolling, and hopefully we can put up another green week.
West Ham vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Will West Ham's set-piece issues be fixed by the international break? At the prices I'm willing to bet not.
The Hammers have conceded a league high 42 shots and eight goals from set-pieces in just seven games, and were peppered by Arsenal last time out, who had eight shots from set-pieces.
Brentford are managed by a set-piece coach so I suspect we'll see them continue to put extra focus on that element, especially as they have only scored once from them this season, which will be a big disappointment for Kieth Andrews.
Nonetheless, their two centre-backs have been knocking on the door, especially against the weakest set-piece sides. SEPP VAN DEN BERG's four shots have come against two sides that rank among West Ham in terms of set-piece defending (Nottingham Forest and Man Utd), hitting the target with three of his attempts so he's been banging on the door.
He's averaged 0.12 xG per 90 over the season so far making the 18/1 huge value for him to score. He's 10/3 for 1+ SHOT ON TARGET, which we will back too given he's averaged 0.43 per 90 this term.
NATHAN COLLINS has averaged only 0.02 xG per 90 but is priced at 12/1 to score anytime, so we'll instead take him for just 1+ SHOT ON TARGET too at 9/2 which rates the better value given what we've seen from him this season.
He's managed three shots, hitting the target with two of those (0.29 per 90) making this solid value. Let's just hope the Bees can cause chaos from throw-ins and corners once again here.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1725 BST (17/10/25)
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday 14:00 - Tottenham vs Aston Villa
2pts Lucas Digne to win 1+ foul at 5/6 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Lucas Digne to win 2+ fouls at 4/1 (Betfair)
1pt Mohammed Kudus to be carded at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
Sunday 16:30 - Liverpool vs Manchester United
1pt Ryan Gravenberch to be carded at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Matthijs de Ligt to score anytime at 14/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, bet365)
Tottenham vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Am I sold on Tottenham this season? Absolutely not. To the eye-test they look like a mid-table team, on the underlying numbers they are a bottom half team - all of that to the backdrop of a kind schedule.
13th for expected goals for (xGF), seventh for expected goals against (xGA) and 14th on expected points (xP) despite playing Burnley, Man City, West Ham, Brighton, Wolves and Leeds. Aston Villa haven't been much better mind, 18th for expected points and xGF, making it hard to back either team.
Draw anyone?
Well, I think I've found an angle here which revolves around Mohammed Kudus. He's been Spurs' standout player this season, but his high-intensity has led to a lot of opposing left-backs being fouled.
Five of Spurs' seven games have seen the opponents left-back fouled at least once, with them being fouled twice or more in four of seven, so backing LUCAS DIGNE TO WIN 1+ and 2+ FOULS at 5/6 and 7/2.
Kudus has averaged 1.74 fouls per 90, committing 12 in total, and Digne could be the latest player to feel the wrath of Kudus. The French full-back has been fouled in both of his last two league games, while earlier in the season he was fouled twice in the same game, but this bet really is based around Kudus.
We also have to have a bet on KUDUS TO BE CARDED at 5/1 given the referee appointment. Kudus has been carded in two of his last three league outings, and Simon Hooper is the man with the whistle, who, while disappointing before the break, has averaged 5.5 cards this season.
Playing on Spurs' right is dangerous against this Aston Villa team, with Morgan Rogers and John McGinn - two good foul and card drawers - both drifting into that part of the pitch, increasing the chances of a Kudus card.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (17/10/25)
Liverpool vs Manchester United
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
I really struggled to come down on a result for this one. Liverpool are undoubtedly the better team, but have struggled at both ends of the pitch this season and are on a three game losing streak heading into this game.
Manchester United, for all their plight in recent years, have only lost one of the last five head-to-heads with Liverpool in all competitions and two of the last seven, including drawing on both of their recent visits to Anfield. They always seem to find a little extra for this fixture.
Keeping it simple from a betting perspective, we simply have to keep following our defensive midfielder card trend whenever United are in action. It landed again last time out with Granit Xhaka getting booked for Sunderland at Old Trafford - with his fellow midfielder Noah Sadiki also getting carded.
For those new to the column, we are basically focusing on United's two number 10s and the advanced runs of Bruno Fernandes causing the opponent defensive midfielder major problems.
Bruno and the two 10s (sounds like a 90s music group) - usually Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha, but Amad Diallo and Mason Mount have the same effect - have drawn 33 fouls in seven league games at an average of 4.7 per game, with five opposing midfielders being carded, so RYAN GRAVENBERCH has to be backed TO BE CARDED at 7/2.
Liverpool's Dutch midfielder has already been carded twice this season in six outings, while last season he collected seven cards.
Michael Oliver is the referee for this one, and while it did seem as though he left his cards on holiday in the first few weeks of the season (0-1-1 cards), he must have them back now, heading into the international break having dished 4-5-4 in his last three league outings, and six in the Champions League.
I'll also have a small bet on MATTHIJS DE LIGT TO SCORE ANYTIME at 14/1. He's 11/8 (bet365) for just a shot here which did appeal but we'll swing bigger for three reasons.
Firstly, Manchester United rank third in the league for xGF from set-pieces this season and fifth for set-piece shots. Secondly, Liverpool, while not posting poor data defending set-pieces, have conceded the joint-second most goals from dead-balls. Thirdly, the Reds will again be without the dominant Alisson, meaning Giorgi Mamardashvili will be in goal and his unfamiliarity with his defence could be a big negative from set-pieces.
De Ligt has looked like United's biggest set-piece threat this season, averaging 0.71 shots per 90, and he nearly always gets the full 90 minutes, with it being the centre-backs either side of him who get hooked. Last season he averaged 0.76 shots and 0.10 xG per 90, scoring two goals, so I think he's worth a punt.
One for in-play - if United are trailing and throw Harry Maguire on, take a look at his shot prices as he is usually Ruben Amorim's hail Mary when his side have run out of ideas.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1625 BST (17/10/25)
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 12:30 - Forest vs Chelsea
1pt Trevoh Chalobah to score anytime at 14/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00
1pt Mats Wieffer to be carded in Brighton vs Newcastle at 10/3 (Betway)
1pt Jake O'Brien to be carded in Man City vs Everton at 7/2 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
Saturday 17:30 - Fulham vs Arsenal
1pt Ryan Sessegnon to be carded at 5/1 (bet365)
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Will this be the final game for Ange Postecoglou as Nottingham Forest manager? Another defeat could well seal his fate, with Sean Dyche touted to replace the Aussie.
He remains winless in seven across all competitions (five defeats), and performances in the league have been exceptionally poor, averaging 0.82 xGF and 1.83 xGA per game, so a Chelsea win at 19/20 did tempt.
But, the Blues have injury doubts and continue to be hit and miss, meaning I'm not ready to trust them just yet. Instead, we'll stick with the centre-back goalscorer theme given Forest's continued plight in dealing with set-pieces.
While this angle didn't deliver for us at Newcastle before the international break, there was still PLENTY of encouragement that this is an angle we should still be attacking.
The Magpies racked up 1.02 xG from set-plays, with touted centre-back Malick Thiaw having two shots, one on target, including a shot worth 0.47 xG. It doesn't come any closer. Sven Botman also had a shot on target, so we have to revisit the well.
In Forest's seven games under Ange they've conceded seven times from set-pieces, so we'll take a punt on our old friend TREVOH CHALOBAH TO SCORE ANYTIME at a huge 14/1.
Chelsea rank fourth for set-piece xG, with only Arsenal scoring more goals from dead-ball situations this season, while Chalobah has already scored twice in six games this season, including when we were on him at Old Trafford.
Interestingly, Chalobah's goals so far have come against sides ranked fourth (Man Utd) and second (West Ham) worst in the league from set-pieces, and Forest sit in between those two in that ranking. He is a huge threat, and can continue to take advantage of sides who struggle to deal with dead-balls.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1210 BST (16/10/25)
Brighton vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
MATS WIEFFER has been catching the eye this season for Brighton for the fact he's been playing right-back, and getting carded, a lot.
He's been booked in all of his last three games in which he's played more than 10 minutes, and he rates a cracking bet at 10/3 TO BE CARDED again here.
Wieffer has committed an average of 1.89 fouls per 90 this season on his way to three cards, struggling to deal with tricky and direct wingers. He's faced and been booked against; Jack Grealish, Pedro Neto and Hwang Hee-Chan.
This weekend he's up against Anthony Gordon. Newcastle's winger has been slow out of the blocks this season, not helped by a red card against Liverpool, but has been fouled 2.32 times per 90 in the league, and more recently has drawn a card from two of his last four direct opponents for club and country.
Craig Pawson is the referee here and he's not the best appointment, but we can't turn this price down given Wieffer's record and his match-up.
Score prediction: Brighton 0-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1240 BST (16/10/25)
Burnley vs Leeds
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
This feels like a big game for both sides, and a good opportunity for another three points for either. That means they may approach the match differently, not being as robust and actually playing for the win, which has me wary about getting involved.
Burnley kept two clean sheets against Leeds last season in the Championship, and another wouldn't come as a surprise given Leeds' attacking process away from home (0.43 xGF per game), but Burnley being more expansive in search of a win could derail that. No bet.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1440 BST (16/10/25)
Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
While not ultimately leading to a selection in this game, I thought it would be interesting to share the results of the three head-to-heads between Oliver Glasner and Andoni Iraola since they've been in charge of Crystal Palace and Bournemouth.
The Cherries are unbeaten in that trio of games, and are yet to concede a goal, while both meetings last season ended goalless. The data backs that up, with the games averaging just 1.43 xG. Yikes.
We're sticking with no bet though between two good teams.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1345 BST (16/10/25)
Manchester City vs Everton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Saddle up, we ride again into battle with Jeremy Doku. The Belgian has been in scintillating form this season, and has caused his opposite number all sorts of problems.
We were on Brentford's right-back to be carded before the break, but Pep rested Doku which was infuriating, but he will surely be recalled to the starting line-up here, which will put Everton right-back JAKE O'BRIEN in a bind, and his price TO BE CARDED is worth a pop.
The right-back opposing Manchester City has been booked in five of seven league games, with Doku drawing 2.32 fouls per 90, and prior to his benching, had seen both Jurrien Timber and Kyle Walker get their names taken.
O'Brien is yet to be carded this season but did collect five last time out, and this bet really is more about the winger's ability and form than the full-back.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1410 BST (16/10/25)
Sunderland vs Wolves
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
This has the feel of a big early season six-pointer, with Sunderland - pre-season favourites to go down - face bottom side Wolves. The Black Cats have been good so far against an admittedly soft schedule, while the Old Gold have really struggled, especially in attack.
These kind of six-pointers were fairly high-scoring last season, averaging 2.67 per game, with half of those matches seeing Over 2.5 goals land, which did make the 6/4 about that appeal somewhat, but I can't pull the trigger. No bet.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1425 BST (16/10/25)
Fulham vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Arsenal are turning into a bit of a machine. Defensively they are exceptional, and realistically they enter every game knowing that if they score, they have an excellent chance of winning, as the chances of them keeping a clean sheet are very high.
Fulham have underwhelmed this season, especially in attack as they continue to be missing both strikers, meaning the Arsenal win to nil was immediately on the radar. But, I was expecting bigger than 13/8 given Fulham have scored in all bar one game this season.
So, we move back to player cards where despite Anthony Taylor being the man in the middle, we have to back RYAN SESSEGNON TO BE CARDED.
The Englishman has seemingly displaced Antonee Robinson at left-back/left-wing-back for the Cottagers and has somehow not been carded this season despite committing 2.07 fouls per 90.
He picked up one card in limited minutes last season, and back in 21/22 he collected four cards at an average of 0.28 per 90 and followed it up with a five card haul at an average of 0.37 per 90 when at Spurs.
On Saturday he'll be up against a rejuvenated and fully-fit Bukayo Saka who has been fouled eight times in his last 204 minutes of Premier League football, while over the course of the season so far he's won 2.33 fouls per 90.
He was red-hot on international duty too, getting Latvia's left-back booked, while Dan Burn was another recent opposing left-back to pick up a card against Saka. It's been a stop-start 12 months for the Arsenal winger, but hopefully he's back to his best, which spells real trouble for his opponents.
Final point on this, we are taking the 5/1 with 365 as they offer super sub, and I'll happily take a slightly shorter price (best price 6/1 with Betway) to have the bet running over the full 90 should Sessegnon be subbed, with his likely replacement Robinson carded against Saka in this fixture last season.
Score prediction: Fulham 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1310 BST (17/10/25)
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