Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 486.25pts | Returned 535.90pts | P/L +39.65pts | ROI 8%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Monday 20:00 - Man Utd vs Brentford
1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist at 5/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 6/4
Manchester United vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Sunday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
It looks increasingly likely that Michael Carrick will lead Manchester United top a top five finish this season, with a hard-fought win at Chelsea seeing them stay well clear of sixth (eight points) with a game in hand.
Only Manchester City (27) have picked up more points than United (26) since the Ruben Amorim was sacked and Carrick was appointed, while Old Trafford has been a happy hunting ground for the Red Devils who have won five of six, averaging 2.08 xGF and 1.21 xGA per game.
That's an impressive underlying process and another home win looks likely against a Brentford side who's season is still alive but who are struggling to get wins. The Bees have won just three of their last 12, with draws hurting their chances of European qualification.
Keith Andrews' side are ninth and just two points off sixth with a game in hand, so it is still possible, but this is a tough task on Monday. Away from home Brentford have lost eight of 16 and conceded 25 goals in that time so United should find some joy, which brings us nicely to our bet.
BRUNO FERNANDES 1+ ASSIST. Again.
We simply have to keep backing the United captain in this market while we continue to get prices above 2/1, with this wager landing once again last weekend as he set up the winner at Chelsea.
Fernandes is on 18 assists for the season and needs just three more to break the single-season Premier League record which is certainly something he'll be chasing, so even if he gets into a shooting position he will have half a mind on finding a teammate.
He's delivered at least one assist in five of his last six league games and eight of 12 since Carrick took charge, while across his last 18 starts in all competitions the selection has landed 13 time, with Bruno providing 16 total assists in that time.
He provides an open-play assist threat with his tremendous passing ability, but also a dead-ball threat, and given United are one of the best set-piece teams in the league and welcome back juggernaut Harry Maguire here, there are a number of avenues Fernandes can deliver for us again.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 14:00 BST (24/04/26)
Already advised
Friday 20:00 - Sunderland vs N Forest
1pt Neco Williams 2+ total shots at 17/10 (Betway) - min price 6/5
Saturday 12:30 - Fulham vs Aston Villa
1pt Joachim Andersen to be carded at 19/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 3/1
0.75pt Timothy Castagne to be carded at 5/1 (bet365, Betway) - min price 7/2
Saturday 15:00
1.5pts Mohamed Salah to score anytime in Liverpool vs C Palace at 17/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pts Jake O'Brien to win 1+ foul in West Ham vs Everton at 13/8 (bet365) - min price 8/11
1pt Wolves to win Draw no Bet vs Tottenham at 5/2 (General)
Saturday 17:30 - Arsenal vs Newcastle
1.5pts Kai Havertz to commit 2+ fouls at 6/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price evens
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
On paper this game doesn't whet the appetite but there is plenty to play for for both Sunderland and Nottingham Forest as they clash on Friday.
The Black Cats, who were dealt a dagger-blow last weekend in conceding a late loser, are only three points behind seventh-placed Bournemouth (Conference League qualification) and four behind sixth-placed Brighton (Europa League qualification) so a strong finish could see them sneak into Europe.
Forest meanwhile have pulled clear of the drop zone with two wins in the last three but are still only five points above the dotted line so aren't out of the woods yet, while they have a Europa League semi-final six days after this.
I don't really want to back either team here, with the draw a major runner in my mind, but the stalemate is priced accordingly short (generally 11/5). Under 2.5 goals is also short at 8/11, so we'll head to the shots market where Forest full-back NECO WILLIAMS is backed to take 2+ TOTAL SHOTS at 17/10.
The Welshman is a shot-machine for the Tricky Trees, averaging 1.32 per 90 from left-back as he so often cuts inside onto his favoured right foot and pulls the trigger. He has fired 2+ shots in all of his last four starts and comes up against a Sunderland team who do concede plenty of attempts.
In fact the Black Cats have conceded the third-most shots in the league this season (481 - 14.6 per game), which suggests William should get opportunities to pull the trigger a couple of times.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 14:45 BST (23/04/26)
Fulham vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Fulham have really hit the skids. It's just one win in six across all competitions, with that sole victory against Burnley the only game the Cottagers have scored in over that time. Marco Silva's side have struggled to create in that span, averaging just 1.15 xG per game.
That suggests it's a good time for a surging Aston Villa side to play them. Unai Emery's men are back in business, winning six of their last eight in all competitions to simultaneously move themselves eight points clear of sixth and into the Europa League semi-finals.
An away win was tempting at 6/4, but with an in-form Michael Oliver at the whistle, we'll venture to the cards market where TIMOTHY CASTAGNE and JOACHIM ANDERSEN are both selected at 5/1 and 19/5 respectively.
That's because of Aston Villa's left-side and their card-drawing ability. Across Villa's last 11 games against Premier League opponents, 10 have seen either the opposing right back or right centre-back get booked, so backing both this weekend in the hope at least one wins again makes plenty of appeal at the prices.
Right backs have been booked six times in 11, right centre-backs the same, with the double landing on two separate occasions. Castagne isn't the most card-heavy player, collecting just three this season so stakes are slightly reduced on the Belgian, with a full point on Andersen, who has seven cards to his name this term.
Michael Oliver started the season slowly but has found his groove since the turn of the year, averaging 4.4 cards per game across all competitions in 2026, so let's hope he continues in the same vain this weekend.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 15:15 BST (23/04/26)
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Back-to-back wins have put five points between Liverpool and now-sixth-placed Brighton, with the Reds having a game in hand to put fears of missing out on the Champions League at ease. The performances have been much better too from Arne Slot's side as they look to end the season strongly.
They take on their kryptonite on Saturday though, with Oliver Glasner's Crystal Palace having their number of late. In six meetings under Glasner, Palace have won three and lost one, while at Anfield they are unbeaten in four, so they'll fancy their chances once again.
The Eagles do have a looming Conference League semi-final on Thursday which could be a distraction for a team with nothing to play for domestically, which has me hit the pause button on a pro-Palace play, and instead focus on the fact that MOHAMED SALAH is 17/10 TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Yes, the Egyptian has had a huge drop off season by his extremely high standards, but that price is over the top. Not only is he back in some sort of form, but the factor of him being celebrated by Liverpool fans throughout these last few home games in particular should give him an extra boost.
Salah has scored in five of his last seven starts, finding the net in all of his last three league games, and remains on penalty duty for the Reds which is another boost for this bet.
He's averaging 0.35 xG per 90 on the season which sees him lead all available Liverpool players, and with Palace conceding plenty of goals on their travels of late, 1.58 per game across their last 12, Salah's price looks value.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 10:30 BST (24/04/26)
West Ham vs Everton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
A big game at the London Stadium in the relegation and European picture, especially as both teams will see this as a very winnable game. West Ham are two points above the drop zone and are unbeaten in eight games at home across all competitions, while Everton are three points off sixth and boast the fifth best away record.
Rather than getting stuck into the traditional markets, with these sides looking evenly matched, and I'm drawn to the huge price about JAKE O'BRIEN TO WIN 1+ FOUL, which is available at 13/8.
The Everton right-back has been winning fouls of late, with this bet landing in seven of his last 13 starts at right-back, including last weekend in the Merseyside derby when he was fouled three times.
That's great for this bet, but it really comes alive thanks to his direct opponent - Crysencio Summerville. The Dutchman has committed 40 fouls in his last 21 starts for West Ham, committing 2.03 per 90, with opposing right-backs facing him drawing at least one foul in 15 of those 21.
It's a hell of a strikerate for a bet priced at 13/8, making it a must bet in what should be a physically contested game. I'd back this all the way down to 8/11, which is available with William Hill.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 10:30 BST (24/04/26)
Wolves vs Tottenham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Tottenham at 3/4 anybody? It's a no from me.
Yes they were better last weekend against Brighton but they still found a way not to win. That draw extended their Premier League winless run to 15 and continues to see pressure piled onto them, and that was an opponent which suits Roberto De Zerbi's style.
Brighton play front-foot football and leave spaces for opponents, which works in favour of De Zerbi-ball. Sunday's opponents Wolves are the opposite, and like the case made a few weeks ago ahead of Tottenham's trip to Sunderland, De Zerbi-ball struggles against a compact low-block.
In their trip to the Stadium of Light we took Sunderland draw no bet, and it'll be rinse and repeat for us here with WOLVES DRAW NO BET the selection at 5/2.
Yes, Rob Edwards' side have been miserable in their last two games, losing by an aggregate of 7-0 to Leeds and West Ham, but both of those came on the road. They have been far more competitive in home games since the turn of the year, but we've just forgotten about it as they haven't played a home league game since 3rd March. That's nearly six weeks ago.
Wolves' last home league game saw them beat Liverpool. The game before at Molineux saw them beat Aston Villa. Before that they drew with Arsenal. That's some serious home form.
Across their last seven home league games the Old Gold have won three and lost two, and the fact they have been officially relegated could free them up even more without that hanging over them.
We'll likely see players increasing their levels as they play for moves or to get into World Cup squads, and there is absolutely no pressure on them. It's the exact opposite for Spurs, who have an immense amount of pressure on them in this game in particular as it is, on paper, their easiest remaining fixture and therefore must-win.
This team have shown they don't deal with pressure all that well either.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-0 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 10:30 BST (24/04/26)
Arsenal vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
We are really going to see what Arsenal are made of in this next week. They have to pick themselves up off the canvas and start swinging after defeat at Manchester City last week handed the title initiative to Pep Guardiola's side.
It's now just one win in six for the Gunners across all competitions, but on paper this weekend's opponents are a good one for them to bounce back.
Newcastle's season is over. It's done. They have nothing to play for, have a number of injuries and will have a lot of their players perhaps saving themselves for the World Cup, making sure they don't suffer injuries that cost them a place in the US.
They have lost three straight league games, including the Tyne-Weir derby, and the pressure is mounting on Eddie Howe. Away from home they have been miserable all season, losing eight of 16, and with no Joelinton or Anthony Gordon here it feels as though the only way they get a result is another Arsenal implosion.
That is a very real possibility given how tense and agitated the Emirates crowd can get, but I suspect we see Arsenal bounce back. KAI HAVERTZ was excellent last week at the Etihad and surely has to keep his place in the starting XI for the Gunners.
He pressed with intent and aggression from the front, which ultimately led to his goal, and I want to chance him TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at 6/4.
In his limited minutes across all competitions he has committed 1.48 fouls per 90 and in his last home start against Bournemouth made three fouls in just 53 minutes as the pressure was mounting on the Gunners.
Throw in the fact Newcastle are one of the league's best foul drawers, ranking fourth with 11.4 won per game, especially in the centre of the pitch with Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes, and Havertz could rack up the fouls once again.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 13:15 BST (24/04/26)
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