Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 427pts | Returned 476.63pts | P/L +49.63pts | ROI 11.6%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 15:00
2.5pts Alex Scott 2+ total shots in Burnley vs Bournemouth at evens (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 4/6
1pt Bashir Humphreys to be carded in Burnley vs Bournemouth at 5/1 (bet365) - min price 3/1
2pts Jack Hinshelwood 2+ total shots in Sunderland vs Brighton at 13/8 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 11/10
0.75pts Jack Hinshelwood 3+ total shots in Sunderland vs Brighton at 5/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/2
Saturday 17:30 - Arsenal vs Everton
1.5pts Dwight McNeil to make 2+ tackles at 11/8 (bet365) - min price evs
Saturday 17:30 - Chelsea vs Newcastle
2.5pts Malick Thiaw 1+ total shots at 10/11 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 8/13
2pts Sven Botman 1+ total shots at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 4/5
Saturday 20:00 - West Ham vs Man City
1pt Tomas Soucek 1+ shot on target at 12/5 (bet365) - min price 6/4
***Sunday and Monday's tips to follow
The last few Premier League gameweeks have gone about as well as we could have wished for. We followed a +17.9pt weekend with +32pts in the midweek round of fixtures to pull us firmly into the green with nine gameweeks to go.
There will be no cries of 'stop the count' in this column though. We're aiming to keep the foot down, and hopefully some familiar names and bets can help us do so.
It's back to business after a weekend off thanks to the FA Cup, and there are plenty of angles laced with value, with shots the order of the day for Saturday in particular.
Burnley vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Burnley have given it a good go in the last few weeks but are doomed. Their last home game saw them 3-0 down, come back to 3-3, score two goals that were disallowed, and then concede a late winner to Brentford. Another whacky game could be on the cards here against Bournemouth.
ALEX SCOTT continues to plunder shots, and the even money about him to rack up another 2+ TOTAL SHOTS is must-bet material. It's a bet that has landed in eight of his last nine starts and has been very kind to the column, so while ever the price is there we are going back in.
He's had more shots (24) in his last nine that he had in his previous 22 (21), averaging 2.61 shots per 90 in this recent stretch. Throw in that Burnley concede the most shots in the league (467 - 16.1 per game) and this is a very solid bet.
We'll also go back in on our good friend BASHIR HUMPHREYS TO BE CARDED, with the price still not caught up to his recent cynical turn. After getting booked last time out against Everton, he's now been carded in five of his last 10 Premier League starts, averaging 0.42 cards per 90.
The 5/1 available is therefore huge, especially as he'll be tasked with containing Marcus Tavernier and/or Amine Adli, while we also have a good referee appointment for cards in Peter Bankes (4.14 per game).
Score prediction: Burnley 2-3 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)
Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (12/03/26)
Sunderland vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Sunderland's season has been an exceptional one, but they will be bitterly disappointed to have been eliminated by Port Vale in the FA Cup last week, especially given they don't have any relegation fears. It will be interesting to see how they approach the final throes of the campaign given their job is effectively done.
It's similar for Brighton in a sense, but Fabian Hurzeler is under considerably more pressure as Seagulls boss, meaning he will need his players to continue to perform and win a fair few games from now until the end of the season. One player who has been playing well is JACK HINSHELWOOD, and we'll go back in on him to have 2+ TOTAL SHOTS.
He's 13/8 this time against a Sunderland side who are happy to sit deep and face a lot of shots - indeed only Burnley concede more shots than the Black Cats (427 - 14.7 per game).
Hinshelwood has gone on an Alex Scott-esque shooting streak, firing at least one in all of his last seven starts, with the 2+ winning in six of those and 3+ TOTAL SHOTS banking in four of the seven, averaging 2.68 shots per 90 in that run. We'll back the higher line too at 5/1, a bet that landed against Arsenal last time out.
He's been playing further forward in the last five games, first as a box-to-box midfielder and in the most recent two starts he's played in the number 10. He should play there again which only enhances my excitement for the bet.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (12/03/26)
Arsenal vs Everton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
This is a big game for both teams. Arsenal are chasing down a league title and have a second leg in Europe a few days after this, while Everton are just a point behind seventh which could be enough for European football. But, David Moyes' record away at the best sides is miserable.
Since he took over West Ham in December 2019, he has played away at Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool 24 times and has lost 23 of those. His one success did come at the Emirates though.
A home win in some capacity does appeal, but we'll have a rare foray into the tackles market and back DWIGHT MCNEIL 2+ TACKLES at 11/8. Since coming back into the team, McNeil has impressed with his defensive responsibilities, and he'll be needed in that capacity at the weekend.
This bet doesn't require the tackle to be won for it be counted, and taking McNeil's raw tackle numbers make this look like value. Across his last nine starts he's made 16 tackles at an average of 1.96 per 90, with the 2+ landing in five of nine.
A look at how opponents fare in tackles against Arsenal's left side also makes for positive reading, with them making an average of 6.33 tackles per game over the last six league outings. More of the same here and McNeil should hit his required two.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (12/03/26)
Chelsea vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Both Chelsea and Newcastle played in midweek in the Champions League, and both play again in a few days time, so we should expect rotation here, even if the Blues have a mountain to climb against PSG, being 5-2 down on aggregate.
One player who should (hopefully) start again for the visitors is MALICK THIAW, and the 10/11 for him to have 1+ TOTAL SHOT looks massive given his recent record and Chelsea's issues defending set-pieces.
The German defender is a handful from set-pieces, registering at least one shot in all of his last six league games and nine of his last 11 starts across all competitions. He's averaging 0.98 shots per 90 in the top flight this term, and plays in the side who take the most set-piece shots in the league (146 - 5.0 per game).
Chelsea have conceded the fourth-most goals (14) and second most xG (14.63) from dead-balls this season, and that hasn't changed since Liam Rosenior took over. The Blues are conceding 35% of their shots from dead-ball situations this term, so Thiaw looks well placed to fire get his head on a corner or free-kick here.
Of course, it goes without saying that if Thiaw isn't in the starting XI, cash out the bet. It seems highly likely that SVEN BOTMAN will come in again alongside Thiaw and we'll back him to have 1+ TOTAL SHOT too at 5/4.
Botman has become a huge set-piece threat too, registering a shot in nine of his last 12 starts. He's also fired 2+ shots four times in that run and scored twice, which hammers home how much of a handful he is from set-pieces.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (12/03/26)
West Ham vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Saturday, 20:00 GMT
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
I'd give West Ham a real chance of adding to Manchester City's misery on Saturday if it wasn't for the absence of Crysencio Summerville. He's been the Hammers' best player this season and is set to be out until after the international break - a huge blow for Nuno's men.
City are reeling from a Champions League thumping at the hands of Real Madrid in midweek, but can't take their eye off the ball in the league, and will surely field a strong side at the London Stadium. Defensively though, they remain very vulnerable.
TOMAS SOUCEK has been a huge attacking threat since coming back into the team and looks nicely priced at 12/5 to fire 1+ SHOT ON TARGET here. It's a be that has won in all of his last three starts and four of his last five since moving to a more advanced midfield role, netting twice in that run.
Across the league season he's averaged 1.14 shots per 90 and 0.70 shots on target per 90, with that latter figure bettered only by Enzo Fernandez and Bruno Guimaraes among Premier League midfielders, while his shot on target percentage of 61% leads the league.
At the prices he's worth a dart, especially with how well West Ham have been playing of late, and with City potentially rotating.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (12/03/26)
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