Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 401.75pts | Returned 419.36pts | P/L +17.61pts | ROI +4.4%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Thursday 20:00 - Tottenham vs C Palace
1.5pts Mathys Tel to win 2+ fouls at 5/4 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power) - min price 5/6
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Thursday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
This feels like a big game for Tottenham, and an even bigger one for Igor Tudor. Spurs are winless in 10 league games and head into this round of fixtures just four points above the drop zone, while it's two games two defeats for Tudor.
The players haven't responded at all to his methods, and performances continue to be at the level of a relegation threatened team - which ultimately is what they are.
Crystal Palace were good at Old Trafford before being reduced to 10-men, and should have enough to steer clear of trouble and focus on a European journey, though they will want to start finding some form and also inflict what could be a telling defeat on Spurs.
They have a great chance of getting the win and are looking overpriced at 21/10 to do so, especially given how poor Spurs have been at home this season, winning just two and losing eight of 14 in the league.
Given his performance at Fulham where is was a bright spark for Spurs, MATHYS TEL will hopefully get a start down Spurs' left or as an inside forward, and that makes his price of 5/4 for him TO WIN 2+ FOULS appeal.
It landed last week despite him playing only half an hour, while in his limited Premier League minutes this season he's drawn 1.89 per 90.
Crystal Palace have obliging foulers all over their starting XI, especially down their right hand side which is a boost to this bet.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 20:50 GMT (03/03/26)
ALREADY ADVISED
Tuesday 19:30
WON = 2pts Alex Scott 2+ total shots in Bournemouth vs Brentford at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 4/5
WON = 2pts Sepp van den Berg 1+ total shots in Bournemouth vs Brentford at 21/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 8/11
WON = 2.5pts Jarred Branthwaite 1+ total shots in Everton vs Burnley at 19/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 8/11
WON = 1pt Bashir Humpreys to be carded in Everton vs Burnley at 6/1 (Betway) - min price 7/2
WON = 2.5pts Lutsharel Geertruida to commit 1+ foul and Gabriel Gudmundsson to win 1+ foul in Leeds vs Sunderland at 20/21 (bet365, Betway) - min price 3/4
WON =1pt Lutsharel Geertruida to commit 2+ fouls in Leeds vs Sunderland at 3/1 (bet365, Betway) - min price 6/4
Tuesday 20:15 - Wolves vs Liverpool
1.5pts Alexis Mac Allister 1+ shot on target at 7/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/6
Wednesday 19:30
1pt Matty Cash to be carded in Aston Villa vs Chelsea at 15/4 (Betway) - min price 3/1
1pt Reece James to be carded in Aston Villa vs Chelsea at 18/5 (Betfred) - min price 5/2
0.25pt Cash, James and Moises Caicedo to be carded at 35/1 (William Hill) - min price 25/1
1pt Ferdi Kadioglu to be carded in Brighton vs Arsenal at 5/1 (bet365) - min price 3/1
1pt Jack Hinshelwood 2+ total shots in Brighton vs Arsenal at 29/10 (Coal, Ladbrokes) - min price 15/8
2.5pts Crysencio Summerville 1+ shot on target in Fulham vs West Ham at 19/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 8/11
2.5pts Nottingham Forest 10+ total shots vs Man City at evens (bet365) - min price 8/11
1pts Nottingham Forest 12+ total shots vs Man City at 12/5 (bet365) - min price 11/8
Wednesday 20:15 - Newcastle vs Man Utd
1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assists at 7/2 (Boylesports) - min price 5/2
As weekends go, the last one was up there for this column. Nearly +18pts profit across the 10 Premier League games is extremely pleasing, with Sunday doing the heavy lifting as we nearly landed the sweep.
Those of you who backed the bigger priced Harry Maguire-Jorgen Strand Larsen bet at 12/1 would have been paid out with Super Sub which will have been the cherry on top of a delicious Sunday cake.
Hopefully we can carry the good form into the midweek fixtures, which, admittedly have been a struggle this season. There are some familiar bets in the staking plan as I hope to keep hammering an edge for as long the price is still in a backable range. Fingers crossed they deliver for us again.
Bournemouth vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 4
- Live odds, form and stats
Bournemouth peppered the Sunderland goal at the weekend, firing 21 shots but having to settle for a 1-1 draw. Our man ALEX SCOTT took three of those attempts, and while not wanting to be boring, we simply have to go back in again on him to take 2+ TOTAL SHOTS with the 5/4 price very much still value.
This bet has now landed in seven of his last eight games, firing 22 attempts in that span at an average of 2.68 per 90. The Cherries are a shot-heavy team at home, especially of late, averaging 1.54 shots per game in their last seven at the Vitality despite a tough schedule that includes four of the top six.
Brentford do concede plenty of attempts on their travels too, with their last three away seeing them ship 12 to Burnley, 16 at Newcastle and a whopping 27 at Aston Villa.
The Bees do pose a real set-piece threat though, as evidenced last weekend at Turf Moor where SEPP VAN DEN BERG was among the set-play attempts. We were on him at 17/20 for 1+ TOTAL SHOT on that occasion, and we'll again repeat that bet here with the Dutchman a bigger price at 21/20 against an equally as vulnerable set-piece team.
Only West Ham (124) have conceded more set-piece shots than Bournemouth (121) this season, while no team has conceded more set-piece goals, highlighting the Cherries frailties from dead-ball situations.
Van den Berg took three shots last weekend and has now landed this bet in five of his last seven.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 12:30 GMT (02/03/26)
Everton vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 3
- Live odds, form and stats
Everton claimed a big win at Newcastle on Saturday, and JARRED BRANTHWAITE was on the scoresheet thanks to a superb glancing header. Burnley lost a 4-3 thriller to Brentford and continued to show their set-piece vulnerabilities - you know where I'm going with this...
The Toffee's towering centre-back can be backed at 19/20 for just 1+ TOTAL SHOT here and it's must-bet material. Everton will be peppering the Clarets' box with set-pieces, just as they did against Manchester United last Monday when taking 10 corners, meaning there's a good chance Branthwaite is on the end of one.
In limited minutes this season he's averaging 0.88 shots per 90, with this bet landing in three of his four league starts this term. Burnley conceded twice from set-pieces last weekend and have shipped the fourth-most set-piece shots in the league (119).
Given the referee appointment here - Tim Robinson, who is averaging 4.63 cards per game in the Premier League this term - I want to chance BASHIR HUMPHREYS TO BE CARDED at a huge 6/1.
He was booked last weekend when playing on the right side of defence, with that his fourth of the campaign. He's averaging 0.37 cards per 90 which makes the price on offer simply massive, and if operating in that right channel again he'll have to contend with Iliman Ndiaye and Kiernan Dwesbury-Hall which spells danger.
Score prediction: Everton 2-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 12:30 GMT (02/03/26)
Leeds vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 2
- Live odds, form and stats
Leeds, under the lights, are not a team to oppose. For whatever reason, the Whites love playing late matches, and they look a fair price to win here at near-even-money. My attentions though are turned towards Sunderland's injury issues which present a lovely slice of value.
The Black Cats are missing both left-backs Reinildo and Denis Cirkin, as well as preferred right-back Nordi Mukiele, which led to LUTSHAREL GEERTRUIDA playing at right-back last weekend against Bournemouth. The fact he is likely to be there again in midweek doesn't seem to have been picked up by the market.
Geertruida has played substantial minutes right-back just four times this season for club and country this season, committing a foul on each occasion, and so we'll double up him TO COMMIT 1+ FOUL with Leeds left-wing back GABRIEL GUDMUNDSSON TO WIN 1+ FOUL for a lovey looking 20/21 shot.
Gudmundsson is a foul-drawing machine fresh from being felled five times by Manchester City. In the Premier League he's been fouled in all of his last 22 appearances, averaging 1.81 fouls won per 90, and will come up against Geertruida on plenty of occasions on Tuesday night to give this bet a huge chance.
Again, it goes without saying that this bet can win in one action, like at the weekend with Harry Maguire and Jorgen Strand Larsen, but the two players can foul or be fouled by other players and we still get a winner.
We'll also back GEERTRUIDA TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS as a single at 3/1. This bet has won in two of his four games at right-back this season, and as well as Gudmundsson down his side, the Dutchman will likely have to deal with Brenden Aaronson (1.85 fouls won per 90) too.
The reason we are getting such a big price is that Geertruida hasn't been a prolific fouler this season, making just 10 fouls all campaign, but the continued position change hasn't been factored in here, so we are on value should he continue at right-back. Even at centre-back up against Leeds' physical forwards, this bet would have a chance. He's 15/2 (Betway) for a card if people can get on there.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 12:30 GMT (02/03/26)
Wolves vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 20:15 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
A rather curious contest this one. Wolves are all-but relegated and Liverpool are pushing for a top four finish, but the interesting factor for this match is that these two teams will do it all again in the FA Cup on Friday.
That clash surely has to be the priority for Rob Edwards' side as opposed to this league meeting, while Liverpool can't afford to slip up in the league and have a trip to Galatasaray in the Champions League next midweek. So, what I'm getting at is there is potential uncertainty around selection for the hosts in this one.
The Reds should go full-strength, and I'm drawn to ALEXIS MAC ALLISTER 1+ SHOT ON TARGET here at 7/5. The Argentine has landed this bet in three of his last five matches, scoring in his last two, as he's started getting himself higher up the pitch more regularly.
Against a Wolves side happy to sit deep and soak up pressure, Mac Allister should get plenty of opportunities to pull the trigger and hopefully test Jose Sa, or fire one past him.
Score prediction: Wolves 0-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 14:55 GMT (02/03/26)
Aston Villa vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 3
- Live odds, form and stats
A big game this one. With it likely that the Premier League's top five will once again qualify for the Champions League, a clash between the team fourth and sixth in the league at this stage of the season has a lot riding on it. Aston Villa head into the fixture six points above Chelsea with a win dealing a hammer blow to the Blues.
Liam Rosenior's side are light on numbers at the moment, missing players through injury and suspension, and I wouldn't be rushing to back them here. If anything, Villa's price of 7/4 did interest me. Instead we'll head down the cards route given how high tensions could be.
MATTY CASH is priced at 15/4 TO BE CARDED and he rates a solid bet. Booked last weekend, Cash has now been carded six times this season, with one of those coming in the previous meeting with Chelsea where he was tasked with dealing with Alejandro Garnacho.
Garnacho should come into the fold here to start on the left-wing with Pedro Neto suspended, and he can again give Cash a tough evening. The Argentine winger has drawn 1.60 fouls per 90 this season and while perhaps low on confidence, has the ability to skip past defenders with his pace.
Jarred Gillet is the man with the whistle and he's averaged 3.75 cards per game this season in the top flight, so we'll also chance REECE JAMES TO BE CARDED at 7/2, whether he plays right-back or right-centre-mid.
He has four cards to his name and is averaging 1.31 fouls per 90 this season, but this bet is about the opponents Aston Villa, who continue to draw a load of cards down their left hand side. It's now nine right-backs and righ-centre-backs that have been booked in their last nine games, that after Yerson Mosquera was booked last week.
James was booked in the reverse game this season, which bodes well, as was MOISES CAICEDO, who we'll include to make up a speculative TREBLE. Caicedo committed six fouls in the last meeting with Aston Villa on his way to a card when playing right-centre-mid, and looks ripe for another card here too, but priced at 2/1 we'll include him in the longshot rather than a single. He's averaging 0.42 cards per 90 this season.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 16:30 GMT (02/03/26)
Brighton vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 2
- Live odds, form and stats
Brighton have found form at the wrong time for Arsenal. Back-to-back wins will have filled the Seagulls with confidence ahead of this clash, while the Gunners are desperate to win the title and can't take their foot off the gas.
Cards have been rife in the last few meetings between these two, with five earlier in the season at the Emirates, six last season at the Emirates and five at the Amex last term. We'll head to cards once again here.
FERDI KADIOGLU is priced at 5/1 TO BE CARDED which looks massive as he's set to go up against Bukayo Saka here, should he continue at left-back as he has in the las four matches.
The Türkiye international has five cards to his name this season, but it's Saka's foul drawing ability that gives this bet a real chance. In his last eight games in all competitions, Saka has been fouled 22 times at an average of 3.30 per 90. Should that continue here and Kadioglu could be in a lot of trouble.
We'll also have a small bet on JACK HINSHELWOOD 2+ TOTAL SHOTS at 29/10, with the Englishman playing in a more advanced role of late. He's landed this bet in five of his last six starts, averaging 2.50 attempts per 90 in that time.
While Arsenal are the best defensive team in the league, this Brighton side have shown time and time again that they can create against the best sides, so with Hinshelwood playing further forward and clearly shot-happy, he looks worth chancing.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 17:10 GMT (02/03/26)
Fulham vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 5
- Live odds, form and stats
Yep, you've guessed it, we are once again jumping on the CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET train. We simply have to while ever we are getting bigger than 4/5, with the selection available at 19/20 this midweek.
It won again last week at Anfield, making it 10 straight games with the bet landing, and given the desperate situation West Ham are in - which will lead to them being more attacking in search of wins - now is not the time to depart the train.
Fulham are a fun team who always give their opponents a chance, so I think it's highly likely Summerville extends his shot on target streak to 11 games.
We have a good referee here in Matt Donohue (4.50 cards per game in PL) but I just couldn't find a card bet that stood out, If anything I was leaning towards the Fulham centre-backs Issa Diop (7/2 - General) and Calvin Bassey (4/1 - Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes), but didn't pull the trigger.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 17:00 GMT (02/03/26)
Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 4
- Live odds, form and stats
Manchester City have been a winning machine of late, banking eight wins from an unbeaten last nine, but they continue to look gettable defensively. Pep Guardiola's side are far from the dominant force of yesteryear, this version of the Cityzens do give you a chance.
Just ask Leeds. The Whites plundered 14 shots on the City goal at the weekend and created three 'big chances'. That should give Nottingham Forest some confidence as they head to the Etihad with this game a free hit for Vitor Pereira's side.
It comes at a bad time results-wise for Forest, who have lost three straight, but a good time schedule-wise, with Forest out of the FA Cup meaning they have a free weekend ahead of a Europa League last-16 first leg.
City meanwhile have this game, followed by trips to Newcastle in the FA Cup and Real Madrid in the Champions League. It seems like the perfect recipe for Forest to strike, but rather than backing them to win at 8/1 - I've learned my lesson from West Ham last weekend - I think a return to the Forest shot bet is the way in.
They landed the bounty for us last week when backing them to have 12+ shots, and in midweek we can back FOREST 10+ TOTAL SHOTS at even money. Not only are Forest free-firing at the moment, delivering shot totals of 23, 18, 13 and 13 in Pereira's first four games, but City have conceded plenty of attempts of late.
This bet has won in all of City's last nine games against Premier League opponents, with Pep's side facing 12.4 per game on average in that run. That schedule includes a home game against Wolves and a trip to sorry Spurs, so it seems likely Forest can hit this line on Wednesday.
We'll also have a smaller bet on FOREST 12+ TOTAL SHOTS at 12/5, with opponents hitting this line in all of City's last six against top flight opponents. Forest have covered this line in all of Pereira's games too, so let's hope the 'free-hit' and 'nothing to lose' mentality leads to a lot of attempts.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 16:20 GMT (03/03/26)
Newcastle vs Manchester United
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:15 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Newcastle's season is taking an interesting turn. They sit 13th in the table and some nine points off the top six heading into midweek, and Eddie Howe has a decision to make. Qualifying for Europe through the league looks unlikely at this point, so it could be time to go all-in in the cups.
The Magpies have a big week on that front, hosting Manchester City on Saturday in the FA Cup before welcoming the might of Barcelona in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie. This game has to be the lowest priority of the three for Howe, right?
Either way, they welcome a red-hot Manchester United side who have won six of an unbeaten seven since Michael Carrick was appointed. The Red Devils have been impressive, but have won with fine margins and defensive solidity.
They have averaged 1.51 xGF per game since their former midfield maestro took charge, which ranks only 10th best in the league during that time, but their defensive process of 0.88 xGA per game is bettered only by leaders Arsenal.
I don't want to be backing them as favourites at St. James' Park, but will happily get BRUNO FERNANDES 1+ ASSIST onside at 7/2 given how leaky the hosts have been in recent weeks.
Howe's men have conceded 15 goals in their last six league games and eight in their last three home league games, so United should get on the scoresheet, likely more than once, which increases the chances of Bruno providing a goal.
The Portuguese playmaker has registered at least one assist in 12 of his last 19 games for United, assisting a total of 14 in that time. He's fresh off a superb assist last weekend in a game he created six chances for his teammates.
He has been the league's best creator this season by some margin. The 13 assists he's racked up is six more than anyone else. He's created 84 chances this season which is 31 - yes THIRTY ONE - more than anyone else in the league, with his 19 big chances four more than anyone else.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 17:10 GMT (03/03/26)
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