Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 301.75pts | Returned 300.51pts | P/L -1.24pts | ROI -0.4%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 15:00
1pt Jean Paul van Hecke to be carded in Brighton vs Everton at 7/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt James Justin to be carded in Leeds vs Arsenal at 6/1 (Betway)
1pt Yerson Mosquera to be carded in Wolves vs Bournemouth at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Yerson Mosquera to score anytime in Wolves vs Bournemouth at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 17:30 - Chelsea vs West Ham
1pt Marc Cucurella to be carded at 4/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Jarrod Bowen to be carded at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 20:00 - Liverpool vs Newcastle
1pt Dominik Szoboszlai to be carded at 19/4 (Betway)
Sunday 14:00
1pt Yehor Yarmoliuk to be carded in Villa vs Brentford at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
2pts Harry Maguire to win 1+ foul at evens (bet365)
1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist in Man Utd vs Fulham at 11/4 (Boylesports)
1pt Elliot Anderson to be carded at 4/1 in Forest vs Palace at 4/1 (bet365)
Sunday 16:30 - Tottenham vs Manchester City
1.5pts Antoine Semenyo to commit 2+ fouls at 13/8 (bet365)
Monday 20:00 - Sunderland vs Burnley
0.5pt Marcus Edwards 1+ assist at 12/1 (bet365)
Thanks to Bruno Fernandes - well, Patrick Dorgu really - we made a small profit last week despite it never looking on the cards. Saturday started well with profit in three of the five games, but Sunday was going poorly until Bruno registered an assist.
We were on the right lines with Crystal Palace scoring from a set-piece against Chelsea but backed the wrong horse... Chris Richards scoring instead of our man Maxence Lacroix was a tough one to take that's for sure.
Anyway, onto matchday 24 and player cards will be a prominent feature this week with a load of really good match-ups, referee appointments and backable prices.
Brighton vs Everton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
What to make of Brighton...? It's just one win in their last 10 league games, with that victory coming at home to Burnley. They look out of sorts, and Fabian Hurzeler is a man under pressure.
The last thing he'll need is a visit of a team who are compact, difficult to beat and dangerous on the counter attack. I wouldn't put anyone off Everton getting a result on Saturday, but I think we can take advantage of how the Toffees will approach this one to find a player card bet.
With Jack Grealish injured, it was interesting to see Iliman Ndiaye from the left, and almost like an inside left forward, getting very close to Thierno Barry in what basically became a front two.
If that tactic is used again here, JEAN PAUL VAN HECKE could be in for a difficult afternoon, and his price of 7/2 TO BE CARDED looks value.
The Dutchman has been booked six times this season, including three times in his last six, with a card per 90 average of 0.27.
Ndiaye is drawing 1.38 fouls per 90 this season and Barry is a handful, while the return of Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (1.86 fouls won per 90) is an added bonus for this bet too, as he'll be tasked with supporting Everton's front men.
The referee here is Chris Kavanagh who has averaged 4.06 cards per game this season, and this bet could win in a multitude of ways, but most likely JPvH cynically pulling down a marauding Ndiaye on an Everton counter.
Wouldn't it be great if it happened exactly like that eh...
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (29/01/26)
Leeds vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
This is a big game and a big test for Arsenal. Winless in three league games, the question marks around their ability to handle pressure will continue unless they get another win under their belts quickly. It won't be easy at Elland Road though with Leeds having lost just two of 11 at home this term.
We are heading to the cards market here though given Stuart Attwell (4.74 cards per game in the PL) is overseeing proceedings. Let's hope Gabriel Gudmundsson likely to be missing again for Leeds, we could see JAMES JUSTIN start at left-wing back just as he did on Monday, and he looks a massive price TO BE CARDED.
He's 6/1 on Betway and 11/2 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred, while the 5/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes and bet365 are also fine.
Justin is hardly a card-magnet, collecting just 20 in his senior career, but not often has he had to contend with players at the level of Bukayo Saka. Arsenal's winger has been in flying form on the foul-drawing front of late, winning 4-2-2-3 fouls in his last four outings and has drawn 1.94 per 90 over the season.
In that last quartet of games, Saka has drawn two cards from his opposing number, so the price on offer simply has to be chanced, especially given the referee appointment.
Score prediction: Leeds 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (29/01/26)
Wolves vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Bournemouth conceded yet again from a set-piece last week, with Virgil van Dijk the latest to profit. All-told the Cherries have conceded 16 times from dead-ball situations which is the most in the league by a decent margin.
In fact, they have conceded 10 goals from such scenarios in the last 13 league games, so we have to attack this angle with a set-piece-centric Wolves side hosting them.
YERSON MOSQUERA rates the best bet TO SCORE ANYTIME at 14/1. The Colombian hasn't opened his account for the Old Gold yet but has been banging on the door, taking a whopping five shots at the Etihad last week and averaging 1.20 shots and 0.10 xG per 90 over the course of the season.
Ladislav Krejci is a touch short at 17/2, while Santiago Bueno has averaged just 0.22 shots per 90, so we'll stick with just Mosquera and hope his more prolific shots rate sees him find the net.
Also, given it's Mosquera is a card-collecting machine, we have to back him TO BE CARDED too at 5/2. Michael Oliver is an admittedly bad referee selection for cards, averaging just 2.56 per game this season, but Mosquera is so card-happy he may just force the ref's hand.
It's eight cards in 12 starts for the Colombian, seven in his last 10, and a cards per 90 of 0.69. WOW. He'll be tasked with helping to contain Evanilson (1.19 fouls won per 90) and Amine Adli (2.25) too which increases his chance of yet another card. The goal-card double is 45/1 with Sky Bet for those interested.
Score prediction: Wolves 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (29/01/26)
Chelsea vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Can West Ham actually stay up? It seems unlikely given everyone above them keeps picking up points, but they are doing their bit at least. Two wins and two good displays suggest they are up for the fight.
Chelsea have won five of six under Liam Rosenior and have looked good in the most part but do continue to concede goals, and all in all I'm willing to swerve the 1X2 markets in favour of, you guessed it, player cards.
The Hammers' last two wins have coincided with a switch in formation to a 4-4-1-1 which has seen Jarrod Bowen play in a more natural right-wing position and he's been causing chaos for his opposing left-backs.
In the two starts he's been fouled seven times and seen all three, yes three, left-back's he's faced get booked. Ben Davies at Spurs was carded, went off injured and was replaced with Djed Spence who was then carded, and Reinildo was booked last week too.
That means MARC CUCURELLA simply has to be backed TO BE CARDED here at 4/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes. The 7/2 with bet365and 10/3 with both Sky Bet and Boylesports also rate as value.
Cucurella has been carded eight times across all competitions this season at an average of 0.31 per 90, making the price on offer huge value before factoring in his opponent Bowen, the referee appointment of Anthony Taylor (3.95 cards per game) and the recent history.
Across the last four matches against West Ham and Bowen, Cucurella has been carded twice, with this bet landing a third time via super sub earlier this season for those who can access that promo.
We'll also have a smaller bet on BOWEN TO BE CARDED at a huge 17/2 given the desperation, the fact this is a London derby and also because the Englishman is taking on more defensive work playing as a right-midfielder.
He's been booked in three of his last six league games, so up against a chief shit-houser in Cucurella, and likely helping to double Alejandro Garnacho or Estevao, he looks a massive price.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (29/01/26)
Liverpool vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Saturday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
This feels like a big game. Liverpool are sixth heading into the weekend, three points above visitors Newcastle, with both well in the race for Champions League qualification.
That'll be the aim of both, and both had good results in midweek, even if a draw away at PSG meant Newcastle eventually missed out on the top eight.
Their away form has been terrible this season, winning just two of 11, which means a home win has to be considered, but the Reds haven't been prolific at Anfield of late, winning just two their last six home league games.
Simon Hooper is the referee and he's averaging 4.30 cards per game, so with the result in question, cards are once again the angle of attack.
DOMINIK SZOBOSZLAI TO BE CARDED looks overpriced at 9/2 with it widely reported he'll be playing right-back in the absence of Jeremie Frimpong, Conor Bradley and Joe Gomez.
He'll be out of position and tasked with containing Anthony Gordon as well as an overlapping Lewis Hall, the pair drawing 1.90 and 1.68 fouls per 90 respectively.
Szoboszlai has been carded five times this season at an average of 0.23 per 90, making the price on offer here value before factoring in the importance of the game, the referee appointment, the direct opponent and the fact he'll likely be out of position.
Of course, even if Szoboszlai is playing in his usual midfield role, this bet is still very live given the foul drawing capabilities of the Newcastle midfield, who will welcome back Bruno Guimaraes (2.25 fouls won per 90) back for this one.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 13:40 (30/01/26)
Aston Villa vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Yet more winning for Aston Villa, who followed up a Thursday win against Fenerbache by beating Newcastle away last weekend before coming from behind to win in the Europa League again in midweek with a much-changed team.
Another home win is priced appetisingly at 23/20 as they welcome Brentford and I wouldn't put anyone off it, but once again we have to visit the card markets given Tim Robinson is overseeing this clash and he's averaging 5.40 cards per game.
Brentford midfielder YEHOR YARMOLIUK rates the best bet TO BE CARDED at 11/4. The Ukrainian has picked up five cards this season at an average of 0.26 per 90 including two in his last four, and is committing 1.50 fouls per 90.
On Sunday he'll be up against an excellent foul-drawing Aston Villa midfield. Across their last eight games against Premier League opponents, Villa have seen at least one opposing midfielder booked on seven occasions, with nine central-midfielders getting carded across that span.
Yarmoliuk was carded six times last season too at an average of 0.37 per 90, and while teammate Vitaly Janelt is a bigger price at 3/1 and has been carded four times this season, usually it's the Ukrainian who operates on the right side of the midfield, which is preferable against Villa as the slippery Morgan Rogers tends to drift to the left-side.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (30/01/26)
Manchester United vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Manchester United have been impressive in the last two weeks against title contenders, but it's these sorts of games we need to see them perform in. It's easy to raise your game against the better teams, less so against middling opponents - despite said opponents improving their levels season on season.
If United play with the same level of conviction and intensity they should beat Fulham on Sunday, but I'm not willing to back them at near 1/2. Instead, we'll grab the oar and row in with BRUNO FERNANDES 1+ ASSIST for the third week running, this time at 11/4.
Having landed for us the last few weeks at 9/2 and 13/2, the Portuguese playmaker owes us nothing but it really wouldn't be a surprise to see his assist run continue now he's playing higher up the pitch and is being supported by some excellent forwards.
We are getting a shorter price quite simply because United are strong favourites and are expected to score multiple goals, and should that be the case, the chances are a lot higher than the implied probability of the odds on offer (26.7%) that Bruno has set one of them up.
Fernandes has now registered 10 assists in the league this season, and this bet has landed in 10 of his last 14 as well as six of his most recent seven, with him only failing to deliver when taken off early as a substitute. He's averaging 0.30 expected assists (xA) per 90 and 3.35 chances created per 90, so 11/4 still seems massive.
We'll also get involved in the foul markets, with HARRY MAGUIRE TO WIN 1+ FOUL laced with value at even money. United's centre-back has been fouled three times in two games since coming back from injury, and I suspect it may continue now United have switched to a back four.
When previously in a back five, the ground and aerial duels were shared around a lot more when opponents were attacking the centre of the pitch, now in a four, Maguire is expected the be the dominant half of the pairing with Lisandro Martinez in all facets of the game, increasing the number of duels he'll be in.
That should see his fouls won numbers continue to increase, and this looks a good match-up for this bet too. The striker set to face Maguire is Raul Jimenez, and he is one of the league's best fouling strikers, committing 2.00 fouls per 90 this season.
Eight of the last 12 centre-back's he and his side have faced have been fouled at least once, so evens for a repeat here looks big.
Score prediction: Manchester United 3-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (30/01/26)
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace have plenty of needle between them after the summer's shenanigans that saw Forest push for Palace's demotion from the Europa League so they could take that spot instead, a case that was even taken to the Court for Arbitration for Sport - or CAS.
Tensions were high the first time these two met this season, with six cards shown, and we could see a repeat here in El CASico (all credit to Mark O'Haire for coining that term on the Betfair Football... Only Bettor podcast.
Not only are these two of the bottom six heading into the weekend, sitting five (Forest) and eight (Palace) points above the relegation zone, but we have a good referee overseeing proceedings in Michael Salisbury, who has averaged 4.56 cards per game in the league this season.
Usual suspects Will Hughes (7/4) and Jefferson Lerma (7/4) are way too short here, as is Daniel Munoz (9/4), on the Forest side of things ELLIOT ANDERSON is 4/1 TO BE CARDED which is too big.
The Englishman will be well-rested for this game having been suspended for Forest's final Europa League game after getting sent off in Braga last week, and has been carded 17 times across league and Europa League matches at an average of 0.29 cards per 90 since joining Forest in the summer of 2024.
He'll have Ismaila Sarr (1.55 fouls won per 90) and one of Yeremi Pino (1.16) or a highly-motivated former Forest player Brennan Johnson buzzing around him.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (30/01/26)
Tottenham vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Tottenham capped a good Champions League league phase with a win in Frankfurt in midweek. I say 'good' because Spurs played only one team who went on to finish in the top 24, meaning they had the easiest schedule of any team in the competition. I guess you can only beat what's in front of you...
But, it's a shame they can't seem to beat anyone in the Premier League, especially at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. They have won just one of their last 10 home league games, losing six. It's been miserable for Spurs supporters.
Manchester City have won back-to-back games after a wobble, but have a shocking head-to-head record against Spurs that transcends managers, players and playing styles. Across the last 12 league meetings City have won just four, losing seven. If Pep has a bogey team, it's Tottenham.
So, we'll avoid the main 1X2 market once again, and this time head to the player fouls market, where ANTOINE SEMENYO is 13/8 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS.
The newly signed winger is extremely physical in his approach, and is more than happy to throw his weight around. He's averaged 1.91 fouls per 90 this season, with this bet landing in 15 of his 22 league outings which is an excellent strike rate (68% - implied odds of around 1/2).
He's landed the spoils in one of his two starts since moving to City, and will be fresh and raring to go having been ineligible for the Champions League in midweek. He also has a good match-up against either Destiny Udogie or Djed Spence depending on whether he plays right-wing or left-wing.
This bet has landed in both his meetings with Spurs when playing for Bournemouth too.
Score prediction: Tottenham 0-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 17:00 (30/01/26)
Sunderland vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
No Granit Xhaka, no party last week for Sunderland, who really struggled at West Ham, ultimately losing 3-1. The Black Cats' captain will again be missing for this clash.
That's enough for me to say 'no thank you' to a home win at 17/20, even if Sunderland have been excellent at the Stadium of Light.
Burnley have picked up results of late, unbeaten in three, but simply don't win enough to consider at 4/1 either.
Hopefully we get a good game with plenty of goalmouth action - Burnley's away games have averaged 3.64 goals this season - and I'm willing to go back in on MARCUS EDWARDS 1+ ASSIST at 12/1.
We backed him at 10/1 last week against Spurs where he created two chances and racked up 0.15 xA. He continues to lead Burnley for assists per 90 (0.31), expected assists per 90 (0.24), chances created per 90 (2.52) and big chances created per 90 (0.79).
That all means I'm somewhat bemused that Edwards is priced as the eighth most likely Burnley player to register an assist on Monday night.
It should also be mentioned that Sunderland have conceded seven goals in their last three games, so are showing signs of vulnerability.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 22:00 (30/01/26)
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