Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 283.25pts | Returned 280.48pts | P/L -2.77pts | ROI -1%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Monday 20:00 - Everton vs Leeds
1pt James Garner to be carded at 4/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Last weekend was a good one. We came away with +10.25pts profit thanks to some lovely priced card winners and Bruno Fernandes' brilliant assist in the Manchester derby.
This weekend we've yet more player card bets alongside fouls, assists and shots. It's a nice random mix, but hopefully we've identified yet more value bets.
Everton vs Leeds
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Simon Hooper is the man with the whistle on Monday night and he continues to be red-hot with cards this season. His last two games came in the FA Cup and Carabao Cup, and he dished out 12 yellows and a red. Hooper is averaging 4.73 cards per game this term.
So, off to the player card markets we go, where JAMES GARNER rates a solid bet TO BE CARDED at 4/1. Everton's midfielder has been booked six times this season including last weekend, and he looks a prime candidate here given he'll be tasked with containing Brenden Aaronsen.
Leeds' American midfielder has been excellent this season, and is drawing an average of 1.75 fouls per 90 which will keep Garner on his toes, as will strikers Dominic Clavert-Lewin and Noah Okafor.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 16:15 (25/01/26)
Already advised
Saturday 12:30 - West Ham vs Sunderland
1.5pts Konstantinos Mavropanos to commit 1+ fouls at 11/10 (bet365) - WON
0.5pt Todibo and Mavropanos both to commit 1+ fouls at 16/5 (bet35)
Saturday 15:00
1pt Archie Gray to be carded in Burnley vs Spurs at 9/2 (General)
0.5pt Marcus Edwards 1+ assists in Burnley vs Spurs at 10/1 (bet365)
1.5pts Under 3.5 cards in Fulham vs Brighton at evens (bet365) - WON
1.5pts Yerson Mosquera to be carded in Man City vs Wolves at 9/4 (Sky Bet) - WON
1pt Mateus Mane 1+ shots on target in Man City vs Wolves at 13/8 (bet365)
Saturday 17:30 - Bournemouth vs Liverpool
1pt Milos Kerkez to be carded at 17/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Lewis Cook to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)
Sunday 14:00
2pts Brentford to beat N Forest at 19/20 (Betfred)
1pt Mathias Jensen 2+ total shots in Brentford vs N Forest at 13/5 (Boylesports)
0.75pts Trevoh Chalobah to score anytime in C Palace vs Chelsea at 9/1 (bet365)
0.75pts Maxence Lacroix to score anytime in C Palace vs Chelsea at 18/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.25pt Lacroix and Chalobah both to score anytime in C Palace vs Chelsea at 100/1 (bet365)
0.75pts Youri Tielemans 1+ assist in Newcastle vs Aston Villa at 7/1 (bet365)
Sunday 16:30 - Arsenal vs Man Utd
1pt Gabriel Martinelli to score anytime at 13/5 (bet365)
1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist at 13/2 (Betway)
0.5pt Gabriel Martinelli 1+ headed shot on target at 10/1 (bet365)
West Ham vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
It was a huge win for West Ham last weekend at Tottenham, a result that gives them renewed hope of survival. Unfortunately for them, an awkward and hard-to-beat Sunderland are their visitors this weekend.
I continue to follow Sunderland striker Brian Brobbey closely, with his physicality and pace leading to some excellent foul-drawing figures (2.06 fouls won per 90). It's led to 12 of the last 18 centre-backs to have faced Sunderland when Brobbey has started committing at least one foul, and that looks an angle to attack again.
West Ham will be a little more front-foot here with Sunderland happy to sit deep, and that could leave their two centre-backs JEAN-CLAIR TODIBO and KONSTANTINOS MAVROPANOS exposed against Brobbey.
We'll back the latter TO COMMIT 1+ FOULS at 11/10 as he is a bigger price than his team-mate and has a better foul record. Todibo has a career long average of 0.81 fouls per 90, Mavropanos is at 0.95, but as well as backing the Greek as a single we'll take a swing at the 1+ FOULS COMMITTED DOUBLE at 16/5, with multiple defenders from the same team committing a foul in four of Brobbey's last seven starts.
Neither are admittedly foul-heavy, but Todibo has committed a foul in three of his last four starts, and Mavropanos committed two last week and one the week before, and this bet is all based around Brobbey.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (22/01/26)
Burnley vs Tottenham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Wouldn't it be so Spursy to follow up a win against Dortmund in midweek - a result that extended their home unbeaten run in Europe to 24 - with a defeat at Burnley. I mean, there is a reason a side playing in the Champions League are 11/10 to win at Turf Moor...
The hosts have shown plenty of fight in recent weeks and are unbeaten in three with draws against Manchester United and Liverpool sandwiching an FA Cup trouncing of Millwall. They'll fancy their chances and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them score a couple.
That makes the 10/1 available for MARCUS EDWARDS 1+ ASSISTS massive. After being a bit-part player at the start of the season, Edwards has now started four of the last five league games, assisting against United and scoring at Anfield.
He has undoubtedly been Burnley's best creator this season, leading the Clarets on all major metrics, and against a vulnerable Spurs backline, looks a massive price to provide his third assist in seven outings. Oh, and let's not forget the narrative here with Edwards being a former Spurs youth product who never got a chance.
Given the referee appointment (Peter Bankes, 4.53 cards per game in PL) we'll also chance ARCHIE GRAY TO BE CARDED at 9/2. He has found a real cynical streak of late, being carded in all of his last three starts and in six of his last 10.
In the league he's been carded four times at an average of 0.55 per 90, making the price on offer huge, while we have to factor in the lengthy midfield injury list for Spurs which sees Lucas Bergvall and Rodrigo Bentancur out and Pape Sarr, who is yet to travel back from AFCON due to illness, and Joao Palinha both huge doubts.
Hopefully Gray gets yet another start, but do check team news in case Sarr or Palinha do recover to start and Thomas Frank decides to make a change in which case be sure to cash out.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (22/01/26)
Fulham vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Follow the trends with this one, which means with Michael Oliver overseeing proceedings, UNDER 3.5 CARDS is overpriced at even money. He has averaged just 2.59 cards per game in the Premier League this season, with this bet landing in 11 of his 17 outings (65%).
Brighton have been one of the league's best teams for cards, their games averaging 4.72 cards, but in two games Oliver has overseen featuring Brighton he's flashed just one card on each occasion.
Fulham's games are averaging 3.73 cards per game, and this bet has won in three of the last five head-to-heads, with the pair closely matched but very rarely kicking off.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (22/01/26)
Manchester City vs Wolves
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
All is not well at Manchester City. They have won two of their last seven, with one of those being against Exeter, and are winless in four league games. Marc Guehi is a much-needed addition in defence given their absentees, but they continue to struggle at the top end of the pitch.
City have scored just twice in their last four league games, and Wolves' defence has become extremely tough to break down. Only Liverpool (0.69) and Arsenal (0.91) have a better xGA process than the Old Gold (1.16) over the last six league games.
Wolves' shining light has undoubtedly been MATEUS MANE, and he is generously priced at 13/8 to register 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET at the Etihad. Mane has registered a shot on target in all of his five league starts, and all of his last six appearances in all competitions, with the youngster clearly having excellent accuracy.
Over the season he's averaged 1.42 shots on target per 90, and with City looking vulnerable, he can test Gianluigi Donnarumma at least once on Saturday.
At the prices we also have to chance YERSON MOSQUERA TO BE CARDED yet again, with 9/4 still too big for the Colombian who has been booked seven times in 13 appearances this season at a card per 90 average of 0.66.
Not only is he a card magnet, committing 1.50 fouls per 90, but at the Etihad he'll likely find himself in one-on-one situations with Jeremy Doku at times, who is winning 2.69 fouls per 90, meaning another card has to be backed.
Farai Hallam is the man with the whistle and this is his first ever Premier League game. He's averaged 3.5 cards per game this season in all competitions, which is solid enough.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Bournemouth vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Liverpool head to the south coast on a 13-game unbeaten run in all competitions following victory in Marseille, but they've won just seven of those, and it's four straight draws in the league. Bournemouth love a draw too. Five of their last eight games have finished all square. Draw at 3/1 anyone?
I have once again been suckered in by the card markets, with Michael Salisbury the second most card-happy ref in the league (4.88 cards per game). So, let's get throwing darts.
MILOS KERKEZ rates a good bet TO BE CARDED at 17/4 against his former team. He's been booked four times this season, once against Bournemouth, twice against Burnley - one of which came last week - and once against Brentford. He loves getting a card against a team starting with the letter 'B' apparently.
His card per 90 average of 0.24 makes anything north of 3/1 value given the card-happy referee appointment. While Bournemouth are hit by an immense number of injuries, it seems likely that Alex Jimenez will be playing right-wing, and his pace and direct dribbling could cause Kerkez problems. If not him, then it'll be Amine Adli, who has won 2.47 fouls per 90 this season.
On the Bournemouth side of things, LEWIS COOK TO BE CARDED looks a runner at 15/4. Cook has only just come back into the side but has been carded in three of his last six starts for the Cherries, including being sent off against Sunderland.
He has averaged 0.38 cards per 90 this season, and looks overpriced in this game with the Cherries set to play their usual high press.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (22/01/26)
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Nottingham Forest's form has dropped off a cliff, with the initial Sean Dyche-bounce fading into the distance. Having won seven of his first 12 in all competitions, the Tricky Trees have won just one of their last eight, losing five.
Midweek saw them lose at Braga in comical style, with a hilariously bad own goal before pure head-loss from a couple of players. That result leaves them 16th in the Europa League and in need of a win next Thursday to finish in the top half of the play-off bracket, meaning this game against Brentford comes at a bad time.
Forest's results following UEL matches this season have been poor, winning just two of six and losing the rest, with both successes coming at the City Ground and defeats in both road games, so we have to back BRENTFORD TO WIN at near even money.
The Bees were excellent at Chelsea last weekend and unfortunate to lose, with Kieth Andrews' side being thoroughly impressive all season, sitting seventh in both the actual and expected table, but have been particularly strong at home, winning seven of 11.
They have been rampant in attack for the most part, averaging 2.09 xGF per game, and have recently hit Sunderland for three (3.24 xG), Bournemouth for four (3.66), Burnley for three (3.06), Newcastle for three (2.35) and Liverpool for three (2.75).
A home win looks a good bet here, and we'll also have a bet on MATHIAS JENSEN 2+ TOTAL SHOTS at a big 13/5, with the Dane playing in a more advanced role of late, practically a right-forward, firing three shots against both Sunderland and Chelsea.
He's played in such a role five times this season and has averaged 2.11 shots per 90, so the price on offer here looks huge. Across their last four away games Nottingham Forest have conceded an average of 13.3 shots per game, which certainly doesn't hurt this bet.
Again, just keep an eye on team news as Andrews may choose to bring Dango Ouattara back in from the off after a cameo against Chelsea.
Score prediction: Brentford 3-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 15:40 (23/01/26)
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
It's all going wrong at Crystal Palace. First Marc Guehi leaving, then Oliver Glasner announcing he will be leaving, then Jean-Philippe Mateta asking to leave. Oh, and all of this to the back-drop of a 10-game winless run in which the Eagles have lost six.
However, I can't pull the trigger on Chelsea to win at evens given their recent performances that have seen them comfortably out-played by both Arsenal (np xG: CHE 0.75 - 2.84 ARS) and Brentford (np xG: CHE 0.79 - 1.52 BRE), and only squeeze past a poor Pafos side.
I cannot get away from set-piece goals here, with the two sides on show terrible at defending them but excellent with attacking set-pieces. Over the course of the season Palace have racked up the seventh-most xGF from set-pieces, Chelsea the sixth most, while no team has conceded more xG from dead-balls than Palace, with Chelsea third worst.
Over the last 10 games in all competitions, Palace have conceded 10 goals from set-pieces and allowed an average of 0.74 xG from such situations, while Chelsea have conceded six goals and 0.57 xG from dead-balls in their last 10. Under Liam Rosenior they've conceded two goals from set-pieces in four games.
So, we'll swing, and swing big. MAXENCE LACROIX is 18/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME for Palace and that looks massive. He's scored only two goals since the start of last season but has been on the end of chances equating to 5.46 xG (0.08 per 90) over that time and has averaged 0.8 shots per 90.
On the Chelsea side of things, our good old friend TREVOH CHALOBAH is 9/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME and we will back him too. The Blues centre-back had a stint on-loan at Crystal Palace last season in which he scored three times for the Eagles, so they will be well aware of his scoring ability.
This season he has three goals already in the league meaning he's found the net six times in the last one and half seasons, posting a goals per 90 average of 0.14, meaning even 9/1 is value. We'll also be daft and sprinkle a small bet on BOTH LACROIX AND CHALOBAH TO SCORE ANYTIME at 100/1, you know, just in case.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 15:40 (23/01/26)
Newcastle vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
This game should bring the goals, and I would be all over the home win if it wasn't for the question marks around Bruno Guimaraes' availabilty. The Newcastle captain has been excellent this season and would be a huge miss, and, believe it or not, the Magpies haven't won a Premier League game without him in the starting XI since he joined the club.
Aston Villa have won just one of four in the league, and don't tend to fare too well against Newcastle at St. James' Park, losing all of their last four visits by an aggregate scoreline of 13-1. I fancy them to put on a better showing this weekend, especially with Amadou Onana expected to return, which could in turn see YOURI TIELEMANS pushed higher up the pitch.
That would make a lot of sense against a good midfield, with Morgan Rogers playing off the left and Emi Buendia off the right, but even if that doesn't happen and Tielemans is playing deeper, the 7/1 about him having 1+ ASSIST is too big.
The Belgian has five assists across league and Europa League games this season, averaging 0.31 assists per 90, with his expected assist (xA) average of 0.21 per 90 very solid for a player who has played in a deep role in 76% of Villa appearances this term.
He rates a value bet no matter where he plays, and we'll hope he can take advantage of a Newcastle team who will undoubtedly have one eye on a trip to PSG next week as the bid to finish in the top eight of the Champions League.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 15:40 (23/01/26)
Arsenal vs Manchester United
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Well Michael Carrick got a tune out of Manchester United last week didn't he...! The classic 4-4-f*cking-2 doing the business against Manchester City, but an away day at a more powerful, imposing Arsenal is a different kettle of fish altogether.
That said, Arsenal haven't been water-tight of late, conceding in 13 of their last 18 games across all competitions, shipping 17 goals in total. At the prices, whether we think United have a chance or not, we have to row back in on BRUNO FERNANDES 1+ ASSIST which is being dangled at a whopping 13/2 this week.
Fernandes is the league's leading assistor with nine but he's not being priced like it. The Portuguese midfielder has registered an assist in nine of his last 13 starts for Manchester United in all competitions, with it more impressive that most of those came when playing deeper in a midfield two. More recently he's provided an assist in five of his last six, and the only game he didn't was when he was taken off injured.
It just has to be backed at the prices given the attacking support Bruno has, the fact he's playing higher up the pitch and that the Gunners haven't been as solid. Not to mention the potential tiredness factor for the hosts, for whom this will be the 18th game in the last 64 days - a game every 3.5 days.
I couldn't not tip Bruno when I saw the price, but I came into this game with a pro-GABRIEL MARTINELLI angle, so it was pleasantly surprising to see him priced at 13/5 TO SCORE ANYTIME.
He should get the nod here ahead of Leandro Trossard, who started in midweek, and Martinelli has impressed whenever he's had the chance to start of late. In his last 10 starts he's registered 25 shots, six goals and an xG tally of 4.29.
Convert that into per 90 stats and it reads 3.30 shots, 0.79 goals and 0.57 xG, making the price on offer here huge. Believe it or not, across all competitions the Brazilian is Arsenal's joint-top scorer with nine goals alongside striker Viktor Gyokeres, and he can take advantage of United's weakness at right-back and right-centre-back here.
Watching his starts back, especially recently against Portsmouth and Nottingham Forest, it struck me how much of a threat he has become from set-pieces, with 11 of his 25 shots across the above sample coming from dead-ball situations. He's been first contact a few times with glancing headers at the front post, two resulting in goals at Portsmouth, but also the beneficiary of flick-ons to the back post, though failing to convert as second-contact as of yet.
He's 7/4 to have a headed shot with Sky Bet, but we'll take MARTINELLI 1+ HEADED SHOT ON TARGET at 10/1 which looks worth the jump in price. He's 20/1 for those who want to back him to score a header.
United have conceded 50 headed shots this season (2.23 per game) and seven headed goals, which bodes well given Martinelli has averaged 0.92 headed shots per 90 over his last 10 starts, while the Red Devils continue to struggle defending set-pieces (nine goals conceded from set-pieces, 8.83 xG), and with more obvious threats such as Gabriel Magahlaes, Riccardo Calafiori, Jurrien Timber and Gyokeres, Martinelli could profit from a marking mis-match from dead-balls.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 17:05 (23/01/26)
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