Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 239.50pts | Returned 279.85pts | P/L +40.35pts | ROI 16.8%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday 17:30 - Man City vs Chelsea
1pt Tijjani Reijnders to score anytime at 4/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
Well after a dull few weeks we've exploded into life. A +10.8pt profit in matchday 19 to follow up +0.51pt and +0.14pt editions has us up above +40pts for the season.
I'd be happy with that come the end of the campaign but now is not the time to take the foot off the gas.
This week features same familiar names and angles, and we'll be hoping they deliver for us again.
Manchester City vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Sunday, 17:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
The latest Pep Guardiola protégé, Enzo Maresca, won't be in the dugout to face his mentor on Sunday after the Italian left Chelsea earlier in the week.
What that means for this weekend remains to be seen, but it likely makes a home win all the more likely. Not only are the Blues without their tactically astute manager, but their absence list only grows, with Moises Caicedo suspended and Marc Cucurella a big doubt here.
Chelsea's defence remains a major issue anyway, allowing 1.43 xGA per game away from home, so we should expect Manchester City to find the net a couple of times at least here.
If that's to be the case, then TIJJANI REIJNDERS might rate the best value bet TO SCORE ANYTIME at 4/1.
He has four goals this season, but three of those have come in his last four league starts as he settles into life in the Premier League.
The Dutchman has a knack of getting into good scoring positions, and is averaging 0.26 xG per 90, which makes the price on offer here too big.
With the likes of Erling Haaland (4/6 anytime), Phil Foden (21/10) and Rayan Cherki (4/1) catching defenders eyes, Reijnders perhaps doesn't get as much attention from the opposition as he deserves, and if he sustains his process, he'll rack up a fair few goals between now and the end of the season.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 22:30 (02/01/26)
Already advised
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 12:30 - Aston Villa vs N Forest
1pt Boubacar Kamara to be carded at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Elliot Anderson to be carded at 3/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00
1.5pts Yasin Ayari 3+ total shots in Brighton vs Burnley at 2/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Yasin Ayari 4+ total shots in Brighton vs Burnley at 5/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Yerson Mosquera to score anytime in Wolves vs West Ham at 12/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Santiago Bueno to score anytime in Wolves vs West Ham at 14/1 (General)
Saturday 17:30 - Bournemouth vs Arsenal
0.75pt Gabriel Magalhaes to score anytime at 8/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.75pt Jurrien Timber to score anytime at 17/2 (Sky Bet)
Sunday 12:30 - Leeds vs Man Utd
1.5pts Leeds to win at 9/5 (Betfred)
0.5pt Jaka Bijol to score anytime at 14/1 (Betway)
0.5pt Pascal Struijk to score anytime at 12/1 (Betway)
Sunday 15:00
1.5pts BTTS 'no' in Everton vs Brentford at 20/21 (Boylesports)
2pts Virgil van Dijk 1+ total shot in Fulham vs Liverpool at 17/20
1pt Lewis Hall to win 2+ fouls in Newcastle vs C Palace at 2/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Cristian Romero to be carded in Tottenham vs Sunderland at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Aston Villa's bubble was burst on Tuesday as they were thrashed by Arsenal 4-1, and they'll be looking to bounce back against an out of form Nottingham Forest side. Sean Dyche's men have lost five of their last seven in the league and remain the side closest to the drop zone.
Betting-wise, with Simon Hooper the man with the whistle here we have to chance cards. The referee has averaged 4.54 cards per game in the Premier League this season, so we'll back BOUBACAR KAMARA and ELLIOT ANDERSON as singles, both priced at 3/1.
Kamara served a suspension in midweek after accumulating five yellows this season at an average of 0.36 per 90. He'll be up against Forest's Morgan Gibbs-White and Anderson himself, the latter winning 2.42 fouls per 90.
Anderson has been carded four times in the league this term, but has picked up a card in four of his last nine appearances in all competitions. He's averaging 1.42 fouls committed per 90 and will be tasked with helping to contain Morgan Rogers, John McGinn and Youri Tielemans, three excellent foul drawers.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 12:00 (02/01/26)
Brighton vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
- Live odds, form and stats
Brighton's YASIN AYARI delivered for us in midweek by firing three shots at West Ham, and we simply have to go back in against the second worst team in the league Burnley. He is much shorter for 2+ shots (4/6 - bet365), but we'll take 3+ TOTAL SHOTS at 2/1 and 4+ TOTAL SHOTS at 5/1.
The Swede is averaging 2.34 shots per 90 this season and has landed the 3+ bet in all of his last three starts, hitting 4+ in two of those. Over the course of the season, the 3+ has won in six of 14 starts (43% strikerate and implied odds of 13/10) and the 4+ has won in five of 14 (36% - 9/5), so both lines are value.
Even more so given the opponent. Five of the six games where the 3+ bet has won has come against sides who have sat deep and aimed to frustrate Brighton, a tactic Burnley will absolutely deploy here.
After Ayari fired three shots against a West Ham side who have conceded the second most shots in the league (294), he'll be ready to pull the trigger again as the side who have conceded the most shots in the division head to the Amex (298 - 15.7 per game).
Score prediction: Brighton 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 12:00 (02/01/26)
Wolves vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
It says a lot about West Ham that they head to the Premier League's only winless side, rock-bottom Wolves, and they are outsiders to win. It isn't really that much of a surprise either.
Since Nuno Espirito Santo took charge, the Hammers have collected the third fewest points, scored the seventh fewest goals and conceded the fourth most goals. The underlying data paints an even uglier picture.
Only Burnley (9.37) have collected fewer expected points than West Ham (12.65), and only the Clarets (29.5) and Bournemouth (25.5) have conceded more expected goals than the Hammers (25.2). Wolves haven't been much better mind, but don't rank in the top five in that time.
Rob Edwards' side have scored in four of their last five at least, and their last two goals have both come from set-pieces, an area of specialty for Edwards, and so with West Ham continuing to look vulnerable from dead ball situations, conceding from a corner in midweek, we'll take a big-priced goalscorer punt.
YERSON MOSQUERA and SANTIAGO BUENO look worth chancing to small stakes at 12/1 and 14/1 respectively, though the latter has a slight knock so do check team news before kick-off.
Mosquera has taken six shots this term at an average of 0.78 per 90 and fired two attempts against Manchester United last time out, while Bueno has only taken three shots all season but has scored twice, being on the end of two massive chances (both 0.75 xG) from corners.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Bournemouth vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Arsenal flexed their muscles on Tuesday with a dismantling of a red-hot Aston Villa, and the Gunners won't be scared of a trip to a Bournemouth side winless in 10 league games.
The Cherries do have the capability to score goals, but simply cannot keep them out. They have shipped 24 times in that winless run.
Set-pieces have become an issue too, with the Cherries conceding seven goals from set-pieces in their last eight league matches, so with the dead-ball kings in town, we should get involved accordingly.
Two players standout at the same 17/2 price TO SCORE ANYTIME - GABRIEL MAGALHAES and JURRIEN TIMBER.
Gabriel came back into the starting XI on Tuesday after an injury lay off and capped his return with his third goal of the season in all competitions. He's averaging a solid 0.12 xG per 90 and remains the Gunners' main set-piece threat.
Timber represents a set-piece and open-play threat, with his data this season simply fantastic. He too has three goals in all competitions this season and averaged 0.25 xG per 90 in the Premier League.
That latter figure ranks him as Arsenal's fifth biggest attacking threat in 25/26, and is a bigger average than the likes of Jarrod Bowen, Florian Wirtz, Rayan Cherki and Morgan Rogers this term.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-3 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 12:00 (02/01/26)
Leeds vs Manchester United
- Kick-off: Sunday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Give me LEEDS TO WIN 9/5 all day here. It's an absolute no brainer in my mind, with the Whites criminally overpriced.
Not only are Daniel Farke's side on a good run of form (W2 D6) against a tough schedule, but their opponents Manchester United are thin on the ground in terms of numbers and have been really struggling. I mean, they drew with Wolves last time out...
It's three home wins in five for Leeds, with their last four at Elland Road seeing them play a red-hot Aston Villa, Club World Cup winners Chelsea, Premier League champions Liverpool and FA Cup winners Crystal Palace.
The data surrounding Leeds in home games is pretty remarkable too, with only Arsenal and Manchester City having accumulated more expected points per gam than the Whites (2.08).
Averaging 1.95 xGF and 1.01 xGA per game is a fantastic process, while Manchester United rank as the 10th best away side having won just three of nine.
Add in the fact the crowd will be bang up for this and there is no reason in my mind that Leeds should be second favourites for this one. I expect they'll be closer to 7/5 come kick-off.
We'll also wade back in on Leeds centre-back scorers too, with JAKA BIJOL and PASCAL STRUIJK worth chancing TO SCORE ANYTIME at 14/1 and 12/1 respectively with Betway (12/1 Bijol available with Sky Bet and 11/1 Struijk available on Coral and Ladbrokes - all fine).
Bijol landed us a shot last week at Liverpool and is a massive threat given his size, with the Slovenian starting to flex his attacking muscles by firing five shots in his last seven matches - including a goal at home to Chelsea.
Struijk hasn't yet scored but has gone very close on multiple occasions, taking 1.06 shots per 90 and averaging 0.10 xG per 90. He had three shots from corners in their last home game against Crystal Palace too.
Manchester United have conceded nine goals from set-pieces this season and 8.30 xGA (fifth-most), including against Wolves last time out.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 12:30 (02/01/26)
Everton vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Sunday, 15:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Golf
- Live odds, form and stats
Goals aren't usually forthcoming when Everton are involved, with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' landing in 13 of 19 league games this season (68%), and at nearly even money we have to back a repeat here.
The Toffees have been even better for BTTS no backers since losing key attacking personnel to injuries and AFCON, with this bet winning in six straight games as David Moyes' side have clamped down defensively, conceding just three goals, all coming against Arsenal or Chelsea.
They'll fancy their chances of another clean sheet with Brentford in town, who have scored only seven goals in nine away games. Coincidentally they have been good for BTTS no backers too away from home, landing the spoils in five of their last six league road trips.
The Bees do have plenty of firepower, but this could be a fine margin game, and one where 'no goalscorer' gets a good run out at 17/2.
Score prediction: Everton 1-0 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 22:30 (02/01/26)
Fulham vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Sunday, 15:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Craig Pawson has been the Premier League's most lenient referee this season. In 11 outings he's brandished an average of just 2.00 cards per game, so player cards are off the table here.
Instead, VIRGIL VAN DIJK's 17/20 price for 1+ TOTAL SHOT looks worth backing.
The Liverpool captain has had a shot in six of his last eight league games, firing nine in total over that period as he's again starting to stamp his authority from attacking set-pieces.
Across his last 16 games in all competitions, this bet has won 11 times, with Van Dijk averaging a 1.25 shots per 90.
Fulham have conceded at least one shot to a centre-back in six of their last nine league games, with eight different CBs getting a shot away and two finding the net. VVD is 10/1 to score (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes) for those wanting a bigger price.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 22:30 (02/01/26)
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Sunday, 15:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
LEWIS HALL is becoming one of Newcastle's best ball carriers, and it's leading to him being fouled a lot.
Across his last five starts for the Magpies he's been felled 12 times, WINNING 2+ FOULS in all five, so at 2/1, we have to back a repeat.
Newcastle have struggled to get up the pitch at times this season but in recent weeks it's been Hall who has carried them up at times, breaking the lines with his dribbling.
Let's hope it continues here in a game that will likely be open with plenty of space for him to roam into against a Crystal Palace side who aren't shy about being cynical.
I wouldn't put anyone off backing 3+ too at 6/1, with that line winning in two of his last four league starts.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 22:30 (02/01/26)
Tottenham vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Sunday, 15:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
It may seem like the obvious bet, but sometimes that is the best bet. Tottenham captain CRISTIAN ROMERO TO BE CARDED is 5/2 here and that looks too big.
The Argentine has been carded in eight of his 15 league appearances this season at an average of 0.56 per 90, but more impressively he's picked up a card in five of his last seven.
He'll be up against Sunderland strikers Brian Brobbey and Wilson Isidor here, two awkward forwards who are physical and excellent at drawing fouls.
Throw in a an excellent referee appointment in Stuart Attwell, who has averaged 4.91 cards per game in the Premier League this season, and Romero could be set yet another card.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 22:30 (02/01/26)
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