Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 203.50pts | Returned 230.91pts | P/L +27.41pts | ROI 13%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Boxing Day 20:00 - Man Utd vs Newcastle
2pts Casemiro 2+ total shots at evens (bet365)
1.5pts Anthony Gordon to score or assist at 7/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday 12:30 - N Forest vs Man City
1pt Elliot Anderson to be carded at 4/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - Arsenal vs Brighton
1pt Diego Gomez to be carded at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 15:00 - Brentford vs Bournemouth
1.5pts Brentford to win at 13/10 (General)
0.5pt Nathan Collins to score anytime at 11/1 (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Sepp van den Berg to score anytime at 14/1 (Coral, Labrokes)
Saturday 15:00 - Burnley vs Everton
1.5pts Kyle Walker to commit 2+ fouls at 6/4 (BetVictor, Betway)
0.5pt Kyle Walker to be carded at 5/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - Liverpool vs Wolves
3pts Under 3.5 goals at 8/11 (Betfred)
Saturday 17:30 - Chelsea vs Aston Villa
1pt Morgan Rogers 1+ shot on target outside box at 12/5 (bet365)
Sunday 14:00 - Sunderland vs Leeds
1pt Dominic Calvert-Lewin 3+ total shots at 2/1 (bet365)
Sunday 16:30 - C Palace vs Tottenham
2pts Over 2.5 goals at evens (General)
1pt Richarlison to score anytime at 23/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Merry Christmas everyone! 'Tis the season of giving, so let's hope the Premier League action can give us plenty of spending money.
Last week ended in a small profit (+0.5pts) thanks to Matheus Cunha's heroics, and there are a lot of angles I like the look of this weekend.
We have a variety of markets and prices for the 10 league games, starting on Boxing Day (Friday) and ending on Sunday, so let's hope we are on Santa's nice list!
Manchester United vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Friday, Boxing Day, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Manchester United's defence continues to undo the good work of their forwards. Ruben Amorim's side have generated the second most xGF in the league this season (32.1 - 1.88 per game) but have conceded the sixth most xGA (23.5 - 1.38 per game), and haven't kept a clean sheet in 10 league games.
Newcastle will be frustrated not to have capitalised on their 2-0 lead against Chelsea, drawing 2-2, but that speaks to their defensive frailties, and it has to be said that both teams head into Boxing Day with a raft of injuries, especially in defence.
Neither team are trustworthy enough to get onside, but goals should be on the cards, and I'm drawn to ANTHONY GORDON TO SCORE OR ASSIST at 7/5 as a value bet.
It was a slow start to the season for the flying winger but he's sparked into life of late, registering a goal or assist in five of his last six games in which he's played more than 10 minutes. He leads his team for expected goal involvements per 90 (xGI = xG + xA) with 0.73, making the price on offer here huge.
There are a couple of added boosts for us too; the first is that Gordon is Newcastle's penalty taker, and the second is that should he not complete the 90, it's highly likely he will be replaced by an attacking player - usually Harvey Barnes who ranks second among Newcastle players in terms of xGI per 90 - which is a great switch for Super Sub.
We'll also have a bet at a Manchester United player to shoot - no, not Matheus Cunha. The Brazilian forward is 13/20 for 3+ shots on Friday, but his compatriot CASEMIRO is even money for 2+ TOTAL SHOTS and that rates a cracking bet.
As well as being a threat from set-pieces, Casemiro loves a shot from distance and is averaging 2.17 shots per 90 this season, with this bet landing in five of his last seven outings for a United team who lead the league for shots taken this season (16.3).
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 22:00 (23/12/25)
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Manchester City are grooving at the moment, but Nottingham Forest at the City Ground have been good under Sean Dyche (W2 D1 L1). This won't be an easy game for Pep Guardiola's side.
Cards could be the avenue in here with Rob Jones having the whistle. After a quiet start to the season, he's really been on fire of late, dishing 5.3 cards per game across his last seven matches.
ELLIOT ANDERSON could be in for a tough afternoon against City's midfielders, and he looks a bet TO BE CARDED at 4/1.
Anderson has been excellent for Forest this season, but doesn't mind getting stuck in, averaging 1.47 fouls per 90.
He's been carded three times in the Premier League and twice in the Europa League this term for a cards per 90 average of 0.24.
That would give us a rough price of 3/1 without factoring in the referee appointment or the opponents City, who have a number of excellent close control dribblers.
The other thing to factor in for card bets this week is that we are only two games away from the card ban limit increasing from five to 10, so those on four (Bernardo Silva, Neco Williams for example) may be doing their best to avoid one in the next two matchdays to avoid a suspension over this busy period.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 22:00 (23/12/25)
Arsenal vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Arsenal did enough last weekend at Everton, while Brighton are stalling after a decent start. A home win looks likely.
The Seagulls are without Carlos Baleba for a while due to AFCON, and last week had to manage without his replacement DIEGO GOMEZ due to suspension after collecting five cards.
He's back now, and at 3/1 TO BE CARDED, looks a cracking bet with him expected to line up in defensive midfield.
The Paraguayan has featured as a DM nine times this season and has averaged 1.67 fouls per 90 in those games, with all five of his cards coming in those nine matches, making his card per 90 average 0.83 when deployed centrally.
Against the league leaders he could have his name taken yet again, especially given the recent league meetings between these clubs have been fiery and we do have a decent ref overseeing things (John Brooks - 4.2 cards per game).
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 22:00 (23/12/25)
Brentford vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Many may look at the odds and thing Bournemouth have been overpriced here, but I'd argue that this is one of the tougher matchups in the league for the Cherries. Andoni Iraola deploys a high-press aiming to force turnovers in the final third, and Brentford basically just kick it over the top of said press, negating it completely.
The Bees have the same identity under Keith Andrews as they did under Thomas Frank so that headache will remain for Bournemouth, who have lost the last four head-to-heads. The Cherries are also low on confidence and winless in eight league games, so I'll happily have a bet on BRENTFORD TO WIN at 13/10.
Andrews' side have been excellent at home anyway this season, winning five of eight and averaging 2.03 xGF and 1.26 xGA per game, while Bournemouth have been poor travellers (1W 3D 4L) conceding 23 goals in eight road games and an average of 2.23 xGA per game.
No to double down on a pro-Brentford play, but Bournemouth have overtaken West Ham at the top of the set-piece goals conceded standings and it's gone under the radar. The Cherries have shipped seven such goals in their last six league games to take their tally on the season to 12.
Brentford have only scored three times from corners or free-kicks this season but rank sixth for xG from dead-balls, and Andrews always puts an emphasis on set-pieces being a former set-piece coach.
We'll back both of the Bees centre-backs, NATHAN COLLINS and SEPP VAN DEN BERG TO SCORE ANYTIME at 11/1 and 14/1 respectively.
Neither has scored yet this season but have gone close and are averaging 0.07 (Collins) and 0.10 (SVDB) xG per 90, meanwhile four of the seven goals Brentford have scored against Bournemouth in the last three meetings have come from set-pieces, so let's hope that continues and one of the centre-backs grabs a goal.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 13:00 (22/12/25)
Burnley vs Everton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Everton struggled in attack last week mainly due to a number of absentees, but Jack Grealish's iinfuence remained and it will so again this weekend against Burnley. The Toffees will feed him at every opportunity at Turf Moor, putting his former City teammate KYLE WALKER in the firing line.
Walker has already been CARDED five times this season as he gets more clumsy and easy to take on at 35 years of age, and Grealish is drawing 3.15 fouls per 90 as well as being responsible for getting seven opposing right backs booked in 15 league starts.
Craig Pawson is the referee for this one and he isn't the best appointment for cards, averaging 2.41 cards per game, so we'll also back WALKER TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at 6/4 in case the former Man City man does get down and dirty but doesn't get punished.
He's committed two or more fouls in seven of his last 12 appearances for the Clarets, and given his opposite number is Grealish, we'll back that to become eight in 13.
There is of course a world where both of these bets land, which would be great.
Score prediction: Burnley 0-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 22:00 (23/12/25)
Liverpool vs Wolves
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Wolves have been utterly miserable this season, making the worst start in Premier League history through 17 games. Just two points from a possible 51 is horrific, and the same amount as the 20/21 Sheffield United side managed, with Wolves ranking worst thanks to their -28 goal difference.
After writing that, I didn't think I'd be writing this: when Rob Edwards takes his side to Anfield, we should back UNDER 3.5 GOALS. Yes, Wolves do continue to lose matches, but defensively they are not giving up much at all, and this bet has landed in five of his six games in charge.
The outlier was a 4-1 defeat to Manchester United in which the Old Gold conceded over 4.0 xGA, but the other five games have seen them allow just 1.07 xGA per game, limiting Brentford (1.28), Arsenal (1.13 xG), Nottingham Forest (0.74), Aston Villa (0.94) and Crystal Palace (1.27) very well.
Liverpool's injury crisis means I can see them holding the Reds at bay too. Arne Slot has a threadbare squad for this clash, missing players from all over the pitch (Salah, Gakpo, Gomez, Szoboszlai, Endo, Isak, Bradley), so an already dysfunctional team will be even more so with a number of players likely to be out of position.
Even when near full strength, only one of Liverpool's eight home league games this season has gone over 3.5 goals and that was the very first game of the season, while across their last 10 games in all competitions they have mustered an average of just 1.56 xGF per game - a far cry from their 2.45 from last season.
Final point - as well as Wolves being tough to create against, I think Liverpool are in a place where they just want results. Nothing fancy, no running up the score, just conserve energy and get three points, making the unders a great bet. A home win and Under 3.5 is 13/10 for those who want a bigger price.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 22:00 (23/12/25)
West Ham vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
This is a massive game for West Ham, who are at real risk of being cut adrift in the relegation zone. They are five points from safety heading into the weekend after a miserable run of results.
Fulham's back-to-back successes over sides in the bottom four have seen them pull 10 points clear, and a third win in a row would put them on the verge of safety already you'd imagine, and you wouldn't put it past them.
It's a no bet here, but an away win and both teams scoring could be a runner at 19/5 (William Hill).
Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 22:00 (23/12/25)
Chelsea vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Chelsea, who have won just four of their eight home league games, are odds-on to beat an Aston Villa team who have won 10 league games in a row and 16 of their last 18 in all competitions. That doesn't make sense to me.
Having said that, I'm swerving the traditional markets and focusing on the red-hot MORGAN ROGERS, who is 12/5 to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX.
He really has his shooting boots on and is pulling the trigger from anywhere given how much confidence he has right now.
Rogers has taken 31 shots this season with 13 of those (42%) coming from distance and seven hitting the target at an average of 0.42 per 90.
Those figures all make the price on offer for a repeat here good value, as does the fact that this bet has copped in seven of his last 11 league matches.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 22:00 (23/12/25)
Sunderland vs Leeds
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN is on fire at the moment. He's scored in five straight league games, netting six in total, as Leeds have put a run together.
The Whites are full of confidence and so is their striker. He's 5/2 to score anytime here, but instead I like the look of the 2/1 on offer for him to have 3+ TOTAL SHOTS. The same bet is 8/13 in places.
The Englishman is averaging 2.88 shots per 90 this season, with the bet landing in seven of his last 11 starts.
Sunderland are having a tremendous season, but do concede shots. The Black Cats have faced the third most shots in the league (250 - 14.7 per game), with only West Ham and Burnley worst, meaning Calvert-Lewin should get opportunities here.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 22:00 (23/12/25)
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
It's all gone a bit wrong for Crystal Palace. Two league defeats, a costly draw in the Conference League and a penalty shoot-out defeat in the Carabao Cup has put the skids on a good start to the season.
Injuries are mounting too, adding to their AFCON absentees, making it hard to get them onside. The same can be said about Tottenham who have lost five of their last seven league games.
Goals could be on the menu and at even money we'll take OVER 2.5 GOALS. This is a bet that has won in seven of Spurs' eight away games this season.
They are much more potent in attack on the road, but defensively they remain suspect, especially without the suspended Christian Romero.
Palace's schedule and injuries should make them even more open defensively too, while they still pack a punch in attack especially at home where they have generated 1.98 xGF per game.
We'll also back RICHARLISON TO SCORE ANYTIME at 23/10. He is Tottenham's top scorer in the league this season with seven, but made a real statement off the bench last weekend, scoring and being the catalyst for a late push for a nine-man Spurs side.
He's scored in five of his last nine appearances in all competitions and is averaging 0.64 goals per 90 in the league - a figure far superior to any of his teammates.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 22:00 (23/12/25)
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