Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 187.50pts | Returned 214.40pts | P/L +26.90pts | ROI 14%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 12:30 - Newcastle vs Chelsea
2pts Enzo Fernandez 1+ shot on target at 11/10 (Paddy Power)
Saturday 15:00
1pt Alex Jimenez 1+ assist in Bournemouth vs Burnley at 8/1 (bet365)
1pt Olivier Boscagli to be carded in Brighton vs Sunderland at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Diego Coppola to be carded in Brighton vs Sunderland at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Matheus Nunes to be carded in Man City vs West Ham at 7/1 (bet365)
Saturday 17:30 - Tottenham vs Liverpool
1pt Ryan Gravenberch 1+ shot on target outside the box at 3/1 (bet365)
1pt Curtis Jones 1+ shot on target outside the box at 11/2 (bet365)
Saturday 20:00
1.5pt Tim Iroegbunam to be carded in Everton vs Arsenal at 12/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pts Gabriel Gudmundsson to win 2+ fouls in Leeds vs C Palace at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Sunday 16:30 - Aston Villa vs Man Utd
2pts Matheus Cunha 3+ total shots at 11/8 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Matheus Cunha 5+ total shots at 19/2 (BetVictor)
- ***Monday's game to follow
A hit and miss return after a lay-off. Lacking match sharpness as coaches and pundits would say.
Still, the damage could have been worst, just under 3pts lost, but if I'd have had the balls to put up Morgan Rogers to not only register a shot on target from outside the box but in fact score from outside the box, you'd be reading a different intro.
Anyhow, we head into the final weekend of action before Christmas with some big games and some angles I like the look of.
Even better, the angles I like are juicy prices. Let's get stuck in.
Newcastle vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
This feels like a pretty big game for two sides who have been inconsistent of late. Newcastle continue to be hard to stop at St. James' Park but miserable away, while Chelsea are generally just hit and miss wherever they play.
Cards initially drew my attention given the last three meetings between the pair have seen 22 cards brandished, but that was cooled with the appointment of Andy Madley (2.8 cards per game this season), not to say it couldn't still explode.
Instead I like the look of ENZO FERNANDEZ 1+ SHOT ON TARGET at 11/10. With Cole Palmer back in the side the Argentinean has dropped a bit deeper, but that hasn't effected his shooting output.
All in all this season he's averaging 1.01 shots on target per 90, landing this bet in nine of his last 10 outings, and with Newcastle missing a number of key defensive personnel, I think Enzo can test Aaron Ramsdale.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 23:00 (18/12/25)
Bournemouth vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Burnley are bad. Having started the season showing signs of life, they have been pummelled from pillar to post in their last seven games, losing all seven. Against non-fellow-promoted sides and basement boys Wolves, the Clarets have have collected just one point from a possible 39.
Scott Parker's side prop up the division on nearly all major metrics - fewest expected points (xP), worst expected goal difference (-1.17 xGD per game), leakiest defence (2.09 xGA per game) - so this looks like a great opportunity for a Bournemouth side who are winless in seven to get back on the horse.
Away from home Burnley are shipping 2.88 goals per game, so the hosts should have some joy, and I'm drawn to ALEX JIMENEZ's price to register 1+ ASSIST at 8/1.
Jimenez has played as a winger as opposed to full back in the last two Bournemouth games, making the price massive when factoring that in, but he did register an assist on Monday Night Football that was then taken away from him for no apparent reason after he played in Eli Kroupi to score.
The fact that it wasn't registered is probably the reason this price isn't shorter, but even after the game went 4-4 he created a glorious chance for David Brooks too. Should the Spaniard, who has some fantastic traits to be an excellent winger with his pace and trickery, continue to be deployed higher up the field, this assist price will crumble.
And, against the leakiest defence in the league, we have to take a punt on him. Some sites already have him priced as a winger at 5/2.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 3-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 23:00 (18/12/25)
Brighton vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Sunderland have been hit hard by AFCON, losing a number of key players meaning they are set for a tricky month. They will again play in deep block here and counter, a tactic that does generally fare well against Brighton, so I still give them a good chance of getting a result.
The angle here though is around Brighton's defensive suspension, with Lewis Dunk out. That means one of OLIVIER BOSCAGLI or DIEGO COPPOLA will come in alongside Jean Paul van Hecke at the heart of the Seagulls defence and I like whoever that is TO BE CARDED.
We'll back both knowing that we get a void bet for which ever doesn't start - though do check with your bookie on their terms for this voiding as it may require you to cash out once the teams are announced.
Whoever starts will be up against foul drawing expert Brian Brobbey who is winning 2.77 fouls per 90 this season, and they will likely be tasked with covering a lot of space given the amount of forward players Brighton will commit.
None of the two have played many minutes this season, but both have shown enough to suggest they are overpriced.
Boscagli is 5/1 (11/2 if you can get on with Betway) and was carded in the first half of his Premier League debut against Brentford, getting hooked at half-time, and was also booked when starting in the Carabao Cup at Arsenal.
Coppola, priced at 4/1, hasn't started a league game yet but was carded in the same Carabao game and had a great card record in Italy, collecting 24 over the past three season at an average of 0.38 per 90.
Darren England is a decent refereeing appointment for us too, averaging 3.6 cards per game this season and 4.2 last.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 23:00 (18/12/25)
Manchester City vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Manchester City are a short price to win here and they should be victorious, but West Ham and Nuno Espirito Santo have found a counter-attacking groove. It revolves around Jarred Bowen and Crysencio Summerville, and it's the latter that presents us with an interesting angle.
Since Summerville has been moved to a left forward role, his fouls won numbers have spiked, winning six in two games, the same as he won in the previous five games combined.
He does drift to the left channel as usual, and in the end the formation leaves Lucas Paqueta as almost a false nine with Bowen in the right channel, but its the Dutch winger who could give MATHEUS NUNES a few headaches, and he rates a bet TO BE CARDED at a huge 7/1.
Summerville caused Matty Cash booked last weekend and is drawing 2.37 fouls per 90, so if West Ham can get him the ball in transition, we could be in for some fun here.
Nunes has been carded twice in the league already this season, one in City's home win over Leeds, and was booked in a 24 minute Carabao Cup cameo in midweek.
Across his career, the Portuguese midfielder-turned-full-back has operated at a paltry cards per 90 average of 0.18, but that would give us an implied price of 9/2, some way off the 7/1 here, so given his opponent, and the referee (Paul Tierney - 4.0 cards per game since 2023/24), he rates a cracking bet.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 23:00 (18/12/25)
Wolves vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Wolves were much improved last weekend at Arsenal, but still lost thanks to two own goals. The Old Gold are now 14 points from safety and have set a new Premier League record by making the worst start to a season through 16 games (0W 2D 14L), beating Sheffield United (20/21) on goal difference.
They will win soon as these kind of runs just don't go on forever, but you won't find me backing them here at 14/5 even if Brentford's away form has been terrible (1W 7L).
The closest I came to a bet here was Hwang Hee-Chan to be carded at 13/2 (BetVictor) or 5/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power), with the South Korean recklessly throwing himself into challenges last week, committing six fouls and collecting a card. That's likely out of frustration, but he is an aggressive presser I can see picking up more cards.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 23:00 (18/12/25)
Tottenham vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Two more inconsistent teams meet at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Thomas Frank is a man under pressure, and his Spurs side were extremely bad last week against Nottingham Forest, their fourth in the last seven with just one win in that time against Brentford.
Liverpool are on a decent five-game unbeaten run but continue to concede a host of chances, and now have a long absentee list. Arne Slot has a thin squad heading into the busiest part of the season so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them drop more points over the festive period.
The Reds attack is still not firing on all cylinders this season, and I think that has had an impact the amount of shots from distance they are attempting. In their title winning 24/25 season, only 26% of their total shots came from long outside the box - the second lowest in the division - yet this season that has increased to 35% and fourth most.
That could be due to a lack of cohesiveness between the new attacking players, the fact opponents have figured out a way to stymie them or just pure frustration and impatience from players in the build up. Either way, this looks a good game to chance a long range shooter given how Spurs will be happy to sit in a mid-to-low-block and counter attack.
RYAN GRAVENBERCH is the man most likely, and at 3/1 for 1+ SHOT ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX, he rates a value bet. So far this season he's taken 15 shots (1.10 per 90) with nearly all of those (13 - 0.95 per90) coming from down town.
He's hit the target with five of those working at an average of 0.37 per 90, making the price on offer huge value, as is the 5/2 on Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair, with this bet landing in his last two.
It could be worth backing CURTIS JONES too to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX at 11/2. Jones, playing deeper in midfield over the last few games, has been shooting a lot from distance.
In his last six starts he's had a shot from outside the box in all six, hitting the target in two of those, and at the prices we'll chance him to do so again. It's in our favour that he's playing as the left-sided midfielder too, as he naturally drifts into shooting positions on his strong foot, let's hope he hits the target.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 10:30 (19/12/25)
Everton vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Saturday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Everton have had a rough week. Not only did they lose tamely to Chelsea, but they've had to wave off Idrissa Gueye and Illiman Ndiaye to AFCON and see Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Jack Grealish pick up injuries, though the latter could recover in time.
That is nearly half of their starting XI and the scorers of 12 of their 18 goals, so it could be a slog for the Toffees against the league leaders Arsenal, who are getting closer to full strength.
An away win looks tempting alongside under 3.5 goals (6/5) or a win to nil (6/4) but there is a standout price in the card market. TIM IROEGBUNAM TO BE CARDED is priced at 12/5 and should be snapped up.
The young Englishman will likely come in to replace Gueye and has been carded five times already this season in limited minutes. He's only started six times in the league but all of his cards have come when he's been in the team from the off which bodes well here.
He's running at a ridiculous cards per 90 average of 0.92, with his cards coming from forceful and cynical fouls rather than accumulation of them. It's not a one off season either, as last term, in limited minutes too, he picked up four cards at an average of 0.64 per 90.
John Brooks is the man in the middle and he's averaged 3.9 cards per game this season making him a decent appointment here, while Iroegbunam will be tasked with containing Martin Odegaard and from central areas Eberechi Eze, as well as inverting wingers Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard and Noni Madueke, and target man Viktor Gyokeres.
I expected to see 6/4 as opposed to 12/5 here, and he is 7/5 in places.
Score prediction: Everton 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 12:00 (19/12/25)
Leeds vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Saturday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
I was shocked to see Crystal Palace play the kids on Thursday. I thought Oliver Glasner would prioritise that Conference League game and the Carabao Cup quarter-final next Tuesday over this league match. The result is that Palace have an extra two games on an already stacked schedule.
It also had me slowing my horses to back Leeds here given Palace will deploy their strongest side, but fortunately for us the bookies still haven't caught on to GABRIEL GUDMUNDSSON's foul winning ability, and we can again back him TO WIN 2+ FOULS at 11/8.
He delivered for us last week at Brentford, adding more stock to this angle, which revolves around his switch from full-back to wing-back. He averaged 1.44 fouls won per 90 when at full-back and he's now up to 3.11 per 90 since the position change, winning three in each of his last three.
Palace are a side who are happy to engage high up the pitch and be physical, which helps this bet.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-2 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 12:00 (19/12/25)
Aston Villa vs Manchester United
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Is there any stopping Aston Villa? They have won 10 of their last 11 league games and 15 of 17 in all competitions. Performances in that time have been hit and miss, so it remains to be seen whether it's sustainable or not, but they head into the weekend in third and three points off top spot.
Unai Emery's side are almost unstoppable at Villa Park too, losing just four league games in 45 since the start of 23/24 - a 9% loss rate - winning 29 (64% win rate). You'd be a brave man to take them on this weekend, with Manchester United looking all over the place defensively and missing two key players.
Both Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo have headed to AFCON and both will be huge losses down the Red Devils right side. Casemiro is suspended too, so Villa's win price does look appetising.
But, I think no Mbeumo and Diallo will embolden MATHEUS CUNHA even more to take on the attacking responsibility, and that could lead to him shooting A LOT just as he has all season but especially the last two games.
The Brazilian has averaged 3.92 shots per 90 in the Premier League, but has taken eight shots in each of the last two matches, and I think the 11/8 on offer for 3+ TOTAL SHOTS on Sunday looks massive.
It's a bet that has landed in seven of his 12 league starts, and with a high chance United will be trailing at some point and chasing the game, a repeat seems likely.
We'll also take a higher line too, chancing 5+ TOTAL SHOTS given Villa have conceded the seventh most shots in the league this season (199 - 12.4 per game).
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Odds correct at 14:40 (19/12/25)
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