Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 171.00pts | Returned 201.75pts | P/L +30.75pts | ROI 18%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 15:00 - Chelsea vs Everton
1pt Reece James to be carded at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Malo Gusto to be carded at 19/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Saturday 15:00 - Liverpool vs Brighton
0.5pt Maxim De Cuyper to score anytime at 17/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Maxim De Cuyper 1+ assist at 17/2 (William Hill)
Saturday 3pm double
0.5pt Everton and Brighton to win draw no bet at 12.7/1 (Paddy Power)
Saturday 17:30 - Burnley vs Fulham
1pt Harry Wilson 1+ shots on target outside the box at 2/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
Saturday 20:00 - Arsenal vs Wolves
1pt Viktor Gyokeres to score 2+ goals at 5/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
- Sunday and Monday tips to follow...
Hello everyone, I'm back. Sleep deprived yes. Excited to find some betting angles for the Premier League, also yes.
It's been a month, but at least my second daughter decided to join us at the start of the November international break, meaning I missed only three Premier League weekends as opposed to four.
We get back into things with the state of the column in good shape, at +30pts in profit, and hopefully we can build ahead of Christmas to give all you readers some extra spending money to buy presents for loved ones, or maybe just a couple of pints.
Anyhow, I really like the slate this weekend and there will be no easing back into things, as we oppose two of the big six in the first two games of the weekend.
Chelsea vs Everton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Things have all gone a bit 'Pete Tongue' for Chelsea since a good display again Arsenal. Defeat to Leeds, a draw at Bournemouth and defeat at Atalanta in the Champions League have meant their good run of form is now a distant memory.
They are now fifth in the league table, eight points behind Arsenal and just one point above Saturday's visitors Everton, who head to Stamford Bridge having won four of their last five. This will be a tough game for the Blues who can't afford to slip up again.
Things could get lively here, and with these two sides both ranking in the top five for cards this season (both 34 - 2.27 per game), cards look a route to go down and I'm again going to be hoping our good friend Jack Grealish can help deliver.
We'll back both MALO GUSTO and REECE JAMES TO BE CARDED as singles here at big prices, with Grealish drawing a lot of cards from opposing right-backs and right central midfielders - where James is expected to line up on Saturday.
In 10 of Grealish's 13 league starts for Everton, at least one of the RB or RCM has been booked, with six booked of each and both booked in the same game on two occasions (Crystal Palace and West Ham).
Gusto and James aren't exactly known for their high card records, but they don't come up against a player as direct and dangerous as Grealish. Gusto has been sent off already this season at Nottingham Forest and was booked in the Champions League recently against Barcelona, while James has three cards to his name.
The referee is Thomas Bramall and he's averaged 3.6 cards per game but can be wild, and has recently refereed both these sides, showing eight yellows and a red as Chelsea beat Wolves and five yellows when Everton drew at Sunderland.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 15:00 (11/12/25)
Liverpool vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Don't be surprised if Liverpool's latest win in Europe is another false dawn. Yes, they were good against Inter, but can they back it up? The last time they were excellent on the continent, beating Real Madrid, they followed that up with an abysmal display and result at Manchester City.
Anfield isn't the fortress it was last season. The Reds have won just two of their last seven home games across all competitions, losing four times, so Brighton, who always play their best stuff against the best teams, will fancy their chances.
With that in mind, the way Liverpool have been defending of late, combined with how well Brighton attack the better teams, I've come down on a player playing out of position for the Seagulls - MAXIM DE CUYPER.
The left-back by trade has been playing as a left winger of late due to the absence of Kaoru Mitoma, and he's been making a mark. In three games since the switch he's scored once and created an abundance of chances equating to 1.2 expected assists (xA).
Those three starts on the left wing, while a small sample size, have delivered averages of 0.23 xG and 0.31 xA per 90, so at 17/2 apiece, we'll split stakes on him TO SCORE ANYTIME and provide 1+ ASSISTS.
Backing it in this manner represents more value than if backing the 18/5 in the to score or assist market. Three opposing left wingers have registered a goal involvement in Liverpool's last seven outings.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 15:00 (11/12/25)
3pm double
I think we have to take on both favourites on Saturday too, who both played away in Europe in midweek, against two very good and dangerous outsiders. Chelsea have lost the xG battle in all of their last three and have only won three of seven at home in the league, while Everton are in great form, winning four of their last five.
Liverpool have lost four of their last seven at Anfield and Brighton always save their best for the better sides. While the Seagulls' away results haven't been impressive on the whole, they have won at Chelsea and do rank sixth for away expected points.
The DRAW NO BET DOUBLE pays 12.7/1 and we'll take a small swing at that. Those who want more security can back the double chance double at around 4/1, or those who want a big swing can take the win double at 24/1.
- Note individual draw no bet prices are = Everton 14/5 and Brighton 13/5 = for settling purposes should one game result in a push and one a win.
Burnley vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
What a thriller we get to watch at 5.30pm... Burnley are the worst team in the league, even if they aren't technically bottom of the table, while Fulham have been inconsistent this season.
I expect the Cottagers to get three points here but the bet I'm drawn to is HARRY WILSON 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET OUTSIDE THE BOX at 2/1.
Burnley are conceding the most shots (236 - 15.7 per game) and shots on target (78 - 5.2 per game) in the league this season so should give a red-hot Wilson ample opportunity to pull the trigger.
The Welsh winger has scored in three of his last six league games and is shooting on sight, averaging 2.46 shots per 90. He's averaging 0.91 shots from outside the box per 90, hitting the target with 50% of those at an average of 0.45 per 90.
That latter figure would imply blanket odds of 6/5 so the 2/1 looks massive, even more so when we factor in that Wilson has in fact registered more shots on target from outside the box (5) than inside the box (3) this season. He's 17/2 to score from outside the box too for those interested.
Score prediction: Burnley 0-2 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (11/12/25)
Arsenal vs Wolves
- Kick-off: Saturday, 20:00 GMT
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
'Flat-track bully'.
That's a phrase been used to describe VIKTOR GYOKERES since his arrival at Arsenal from Sporting Lisbon, with the discourse around him being that of one who feasts on the weak. In American sports they call it 'stat-padding'.
I think that's a tad harsh, but it's fair to say that he hasn't proved it wrong yet, scoring just four times in 13 appearances with all four goals coming against sides currently in the bottom five.
There could well be something in it then, and he'll be licking his lips heading into this weekend as he is in line to face bottom side Wolves who just shipped four goals and more than 4.0 xG at home to Manchester United.
We'll take a swing at GYOKERES TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at 5/1. He bagged a brace at home to Leeds early on this season, while he's also fired a brace in the Champions League at home to Atletico Madrid.
He fired 13 braces or better in Portugal last season against some woeful opponents and could continue to be the 'flat-track bully' and take a bite out of Wolves.
Score prediction: Arsenal 4-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (11/12/25)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Home of This Week's Acca
- Football and other sports tips
- Download the Sporting Life app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
