Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 427pts | Returned 476.63pts | P/L +49.63pts | ROI 11.6%
Football betting tips: Champions League
Tuesday 17:45 - Galatasaray vs Liverpool
2.5pts Virgil van Dijk 1+ total shot at 5/6 (bet365) - min price 7/10
Tuesday 20:00
2.5pts Harry Kane to score anytime in Atalanta vs Bayern Munich at 4/5 (General)
0.5pt Kane to score 2+ goals in Atalanta vs Bayern Munich at 4/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
2pts Kolo Muani to commit 2+ fouls in Atletico Madrid vs Spurs at 11/10 (Betway) - min price 8/11
2pts Mathys Tel to win 2+ fouls in Atletico Madrid vs Spurs at 11/8 (bet365) - min price evs
2pts Newcastle to score 2+ goals vs Barcelona at 21/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
***Wednesday's bets to follow
Galatasaray vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 17:45 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
We've seen this game once already this season, and it was a narrow win for Galatasaray thanks to an early penalty. That was in the middle of Liverpool's real rough patch, and while they are still not fully trustworthy, it would be a surprise to see them beaten again.
Recent away European performances from Arne Slot's side have been vintage though, winning to nil against both Inter and Marseille, so a Reds win did get a second glance at around the 4/5 mark, but given the Premier League's set-piece dominance, we have to head down that route for a bet.
Three sides from the English top flight sit in the top five for most set-piece goals and most set-piece xG in the Champions League, one of those being Liverpool. They have in fact scored the most goals from dead-ball situations in the UCL (8), and can threaten another against a Galatasaray side who have conceded the third most set-piece xG.
Step forward, VIRGIL VAN DIJK. He's 5/6 for just 1+ TOTAL SHOT, which looks a cracking price. Liverpool managed eight shots from set-pieces in the previous meeting with Galatasaray, while Van Dijk has registered at least one shot in seven of his last 10 appearances as well as 16 of his last 25.
This bet has landed six times in his eight UCL matches, where the towering Dutch defender has averaged a whopping 2.00 shots per 90, making the 4/1 for him to have 2+ shots appeal initially, but he hasn't covered this line in any of his UCL away games. We'll stick to just the one shot.
Score prediction: Galatasaray 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 12:00 GMT (09/03/26)
Atalanta vs Bayern Munich
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 2
- Live odds, form and stats
Atalanta impressively eliminated Bayern Munich's closest Bundesliga challengers Dortmund in the last round, overturning a 2-0 first leg deficit with a 4-1 home success. They have firepower and are a very dangerous home side, but defensively they remain suspect.
That's not ideal with Bayern in town, as their attack is on another scale. Not only that, but they have a huge rest advantage of their Italian opponents. Bayern played Friday night and this will be only their seventh games since February 1st, while Atalanta played Saturday and this will be their 11th match in that date frame.
I suspect Bayern will win here and score at least twice, which makes the 4/5 about HARRY KANE TO SCORE ANYTIME a lovely bet. Sometimes the obvious bet is the best bet.
Kane was rested at the weekend so he can be fully ready for this, and is on a red-hot scoring streak, scoring in seven straight across all competitions. In the Champions League he's scored in five of eight, netting eight in total and averaging a whopping 0.98 xG per 90.
Given he's scored multiple goals in the same game 14 times in 30 matches this season - an utterly insane record - including in three of eight Champions League games, we'll also have a nibble on KANE TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at 4/1.
Score prediction: Atalanta 1-3 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 12:00 GMT (09/03/26)
Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1 and TNT Sports 3
- Live odds, form and stats
It's going to be really interesting to see how Igor Tudor's Tottenham approach this game. To put it bluntly, despite this being a Champions League last 16 tie, Spurs have bigger fish to fry. They are one point above the dotted line in the Premier League...
Tudor does have Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero available for this game though which should give Spurs a boost and potentially some hope, but Atletico Madrid have been, for the most part, a formidable home team for the last few seasons. It's no surprise to see them 8/15 to win the first leg.
I fully expect this game to be scrappy with plenty of fouls, so let's hope KOLO MUANI gets a fourth start in a row under Tudor. He's been a fouling monster since the managerial change, committing 12 fouls in just 166 minutes of action - thats a per 90 average of 6.39...
We can back him at 11/10 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at the Wanda and that looks must-bet material. He made two before going off after 42 minutes against Crystal Palace following Spurs being reduced to 10-men, so even if he is a sub, this bet has a great chance as long as he gets some minutes.
Fingers crossed Tudor doesn't change the team too much from last Thursday in forward areas, as we also have to go back in MATHYS TEL TO WIN 2+ FOULS at 11/8. It landed against Palace and has done so in five of the last six games Tel has played more than 30 minutes.
We should see Spurs play a mixture of an aggressive press and fast transitions, which will have Tel in his element against Atletico midfielders and defenders who aren't shy about fouling.
Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 3-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 12:00 GMT (09/03/26)
Newcastle vs Barcelona
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
- Live odds, form and stats
This should be a fun game. Neither Newcastle or Barcelona are convincing defensively, but both pack a real punch in attack. The pair have already played once this season with Barca winning 2-1 at St. James' thanks to a Marcus Rashford brace, and goals should again be on the cards.
This time though I think NEWCASTLE SCORE 2+ GOALS, and we'll back that at 21/20. Eddie Howe's side have scored multiple times in 20 of their 26 home games this season across all competitions, including four of five Champions League games.
They simply have to go for it and win this this first leg to stand any chance of qualifying, with it exceptionally hard to overturn a deficit at Camp Nou. In fact, only one of 18 visitors have avoided defeat when travelling to Barcelona, and that was PSG.
So it's imperitive that the Magpies go extremely gung-ho, and Barca's defensive weaknesses, especially when travelling, present an opportunity. Across their last 18 away matches, Hansi Flick's side have conceded 33 goals at an average of 1.83 per game.
Their opponents have scored two or more in 11 of those 18, and that includes La Liga strugglers Girona and Sevilla, as well their last three away in the Champions League against Club Brugge (3), Chelsea (3) and Slavia Prague (2).
Flick's high-line is easily exploited, especially given the absences of their first choice left and right backs.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-2 Barcelona (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 12:00 GMT (09/03/26)
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