Is it time for Roy Hodgson to leave Crystal Palace? Expected goals analysis
The Monday Night Football clash between rivals Brighton and Crystal Palace pits two men who started managerial life in Sweden against each other.
Roy Hodgson heads into the dismally-named A23 derby as second-favourite (4/1) in Sky Bet's Next Premier League Manager to Leave market, whereas Brighton boss Graham Potter is 50/1.
Factors such as age and contract disputes are obvious reasons behind the gulf in prices. However, the difference in the underlying numbers of Brighton and Crystal Palace alone could explain the contrast.
Potter's side sit three points and two places behind Palace in the Premier League standings, but the gap between the clubs on Infogol's expected goals (xG) table is vast. The Eagles deserve to be in the relegation zone from a data perspective, while Brighton are creating and conceding chances at the level of a top-six team.
Given the current weakness at the bottom of the league, it's difficult to envisage Palace getting dragged into a true relegation fight, but questions over Hodgson's future at the club are valid nevertheless.
Can Palace only play on the counter?
Recent defeats to Leeds and Burnley have underscored an issue that has troubled Crystal Palace — they require almost perfect circumstances to prosper.
The Eagles are generally known to be a significant threat on the counter-attack, naturally making a certain type of opposition or a winning game state preferable, but they look completely lost when conditions aren't to suit.
Hodgson's side appear devoid of ideas when losing, which is borne out in the underlying metrics, creating chances equating to just 7.88 xG in that game state.
Teams often strive to get back into a game, leading to an inflated xG total, when in a losing position. In contrast, Palace fail to create chances in those situations. They have recorded a lowly average of 0.81 xG per 90 minutes when behind this season, practically an acceptance that they are beaten once behind.
In their 24 Premier League games this campaign, the opening goal has been scored in the first 20 minutes on 16 occasions. As a result, Crystal Palace have spent an unusually long time in both winning and losing positions, giving us a large sample size of data to work with.
Thanks to that, their discouragement at being behind is abundantly clear given the disparity in Palace's game state metrics.
Just how reliant are Palace on Zaha?
The driving force behind Crystal Palace's effective counter-attack is undoubtedly Wilfried Zaha.
His links to bigger clubs each transfer window have never materialised, which has been the saving grace behind the Eagles' survival in the top flight.
Results in the Ivorian's absence this season and beyond only further highlight his importance to the club. The Eagles have failed to score when Zaha is missing from the starting line-up in 2020/21. In fact, in the 13 Premier League games when Zaha has played no part under Hodgson, Crystal Palace have won once, scoring just six times.
Palace created 15.1 xG across those matches, making a distinct lack of quality in Zaha's absence, an incredible run of negative variance, or a mix of both the reason behind what's a shocking run.
Additions such as Eberi Eze and Jean Phillippe Mateta are encouraging but, with the overall lack of investment in the squad, it would be extremely harsh to pin the troubles of Palace solely on Hodgson.
The club have repeatedly said they would allow Zaha to leave at the right price. These disconcerting numbers might be a small window into what lies ahead without him.
Hodgson's future: It's time Palace moved on
Under the guidance of Roy Hodgson, Crystal Palace have become a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.
Often lauded for — and leaning on — their counter-attacking prowess in relatively successful 2017/18 and 2018/19 campaigns, they have seemingly cornered themselves into this specific style and outlook in the past couple of seasons, leading to a marked decline in underlying process.
Palace's 10-game rolling xG trendlines, which shows the rate of chances created (blue) and conceded (orange) over time, have been consistently substandard for a lengthy period now, finishing 17th on Infogol's expected goals table in 2019/20, before continuing to post inadequate numbers this season.
If they continue in the same predictable vein, results will begin to mirror performance, and Crystal Palace will have a real relegation battle in their near future.
Their uncanny knack for pulling out a string of solid results under Hodgson makes it unlikely that a change will be made before the end of this season, but a new direction is needed if Palace want to progress in the Premier League.
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