- Published prior to Haaland's brace vs Everton on Saturday October 18
Erling Haaland looks better than ever this season having scored nine times in seven Premier League games.
The Norwegian always starts campaigns well, scoring 11 by gameweek seven in 22/23, eight in 23/24 and 10 in 24/25. On average 32% of his overall tally has come in the first seven games (18%) of the season.
This season, while also looking more menacing, he is also more important than ever for Manchester City, with that potentially a sign of how this version of City is built to get the very best from him through faster-paced transitions and more direct, vertical football.
He has scored 60% of his side's league goals and been on the end of 63% of their total expected goals. Across his three previous seasons at City, Haaland has been on the end of 43% of City's total xG.
The above graphic highlights just how out of the ordinary it is.
The Norwegian is a significant outlier compared with the other 19 Premier League teams' xG leaders. Harry Kane (11 goals for Bayern) and Kylian Mbappe (nine for Real Madrid) bridge the gap a little, but remain a long way behind.
Does this mean Haaland is going to obliterate his own Premier League scoring record of 36 goals in a season? Or that City's title challenge is in serious danger of collapsing should he become less clinical, or get injured?
The latter is harder to answer. What we can do is try and explore just how many goals Haaland could score this season, in a few different scenarios.
How many goals will Haaland score?
With no crystal ball, we can't really account for injuries or rotation, but we can make a prediction based on certain factors.
The first is how many goals Manchester City are expected to score this season. Through seven games Pep Guardiola's side are averaging 1.74 xG per game, which if sustained would be their worst attacking process since Haaland joined the club.
That's perhaps something to monitor over the next few months, with something clearly missing in the chance creation department. Currently, we can roughly expect City to go on to score another 54 league goals.
Should Haaland continue to be on the end of 63% of City's total xG, that is an estimated 34 further goals (43 in total).
It is worth reiterating our earlier point that Haaland consistently overperforms in the early part of the season before cooling soon after. In his first four seasons in the Premier League, he's scored 38 goals from 28.6 xG across the first seven gameweeks - an over-performance of 32%.
Across the remainder of the three full seasons he's played in Manchester, he's scored 56 times from chances equating to 59.8 xG - an underperformance of 6%.
Fatigue could play a part, meaning he's not as sharp, but it could also just be a case of regression after such blistering, unsustainable starts.
If things continue as they are...
The below shows the likelihood of Haaland scoring 'x' number of goals from now until the end of the season, should he continue to be on the end of 63% of City's total xG, with three lines showing calculations for under performance, overperformance and performing in line with expectation.
Haaland has a 52% chance of scoring a further 33 goals this season (42 in total), should all current variables remain the same. That would smash his own single-season scoring record (36).
Even underperforming, he has a 52% chance of scoring 31 times, which would take his overall tally to an incredible 40.
Should everything continue at the same rate, even underperforming his xG by his usual rate, Haaland would have a 72% chance of breaking his record by scoring 28 times in the remaining 31 games of the season.
That percentage increases to 82.7% if he finishes to an expected level and 99.7% should he continue his current level of overperformance.
If Haaland regresses to his usual levels...
Given the unprecedented nature of Haaland being on the end of such a large portion of City's xG, we should also do another calculation for if that reduces - which it surely will, right?
In his first three full seasons at the club he was on the end of an average of 43% of his team's xG.
Should that be the case for the remainder of the season, Haaland will roughly score another 23 times in the remaining 31 games.
With these variables, the chances of Haaland beating his 36-goal tally reduce to just 13.8% should he finish his chances as expected.
It is just 8% should he underperform. A continued over-performance would see him have a 64.1% chance of netting the 28 goals he requires.
Overall, while Haaland has had a red-hot start to the season, looking the best he's ever been, it seems unlikely he'll beat his scoring record for the simple reason that while he's got better, his team has got worse, creating fewer chances on a game-to-game basis.
That, and the fact his xG share is likely to reduce, should see him come up short.
But as we've come to expect with Haaland, never say never.
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