Huddersfield Town and Nottingham Forest vie for a place in the Premier League in Sunday's Championship play-off final. Michael Beardmore picks out his best bets for the Wembley showpiece.
Football betting tips: Championship play-off final
1pt Under 1.5 Goals at 21/10 (Unibet)
1pt Steve Cook 1+ shots on target at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Joe Worrall to be first player carded at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
Promotion to the Premier League and all the riches it entails is on the line at Wembley on Sunday afternoon, as Nottingham Forest and Huddersfield meet in the Sky Bet Championship play-off final.
One of the highlights of the domestic calendar, few 90-minute games have as much riding on them as this one, with the winner able to look forward to trips to Old Trafford, Anfield, the Etihad, et al.
You would have encountered some strange looks at the start of the season had you forecast the two teams involved – Forest finished the previous season 17th in the Championship, Huddersfield 20th.
But the Terriers have been the division’s surprise package, finishing third, two points above a Forest side transformed from relegation candidates to top-flight hopefuls by Steve Cooper.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Huddersfield 12/5 | Draw 9/4 | Nottingham Forest 6/5
FOREST TO LIFT TROPHY: Since Infogol started collecting xG data, five of the seven Championship play-off finals have been won by the team considered stronger according to underlying numbers. On Sunday, that team is Nottingham Forest.
FOREST 5+ CORNERS (90 MINS): Since Steve Cooper arrived as boss in September, Forest have averaged six corners per league game.
STEVE COOK 1+ SHOTS (90 MINS): Since joining in January, Steve Cook has yet to score for Forest but averages 1.1 shots per game.
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It’s interesting that Forest are comfortable favourites here, given those respective league positions, but, as Jake Osgathorpe’s data trends article points out, they are by most measures the better team.
Forest also won two of the three league and cup meetings between the sides during the regular season, but there is arguably greater pressure on them to win this final.
They have not graced the top-flight since 1999, while the Terriers spent two years there between 2017-19 – although there’s pressure on them too, knowing what a great opportunity this is.
It’s not too difficult to imagine this being a cagey affair given what’s at stake plus the fact both teams have middling average goals per game stats – Forest games averaging 2.48, Huddersfield 2.38.
The larger the stakes have grown in the Championship play-off final over the past two decades, the tenser the games have become – of the past 20 finals, 11 have been goalless or 1-0 either way.
I can see that pattern being repeated here – while Under 2.5 Goals is too skinny at 4/6, I definitely think it’s worth a play on UNDER 1.5 GOALS at 21/10 with Unibet.
A man who has made a big impact on Forest since his January arrival from Bournemouth is defender Steve Cook – they have kept nine clean sheets in his 19 appearances thus far.
But he’s also threatened at the other end of the pitch, averaging more than one shot per game over that time. He’s not scored yet but has come close on several occasions.
Now, respective top scorers Brennan Johnson and Danny Ward dominate the scoring markets at short prices, and rightly so with 32 goals between them.
Given we expect chances to be at a premium, however, I think the 9/2 on COOK TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET is the standout price in an attacking sense. He’s also 25s to score anytime if you fancy him to break his Forest duck.
Another big price worth a play at smaller stakes is the 14/1 Sky Bet quote on Cook’s fellow Forest centre-back JOE WORRALL TO BE THE FIRST PLAYER CARDED.
No player in either squad has collected more cautions than the 10 Worrall has racked up this season. He’s a tempting 9/2 to enter the referee’s notebook at any time.
However, four of those bookings have come in the first half – between the 21st and 34th minutes. He’s prone to incurring the referee’s wrath early, which makes the 14/1 a very appealing price.
A whopping 28 players are shorter odds to be carded first - given Worrall's record, that's just plain wrong. It's the sort of market that can be a needle in a haystack job - but this needle is a pretty shiny one.
I fancy Forest to just about edge this one but with so much on the line, backing the two Forest defenders to make differing impacts in a tight affair is the way to go.
Huddersfield v Nottingham Forest best bets and score prediction
- Under 1.5 Goals at 21/10 (Unibet)
- Steve Cook 1+ shots on target at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
- Joe Worrall to be first player carded at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Huddersfield 0-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1215 BST (26/05/22)
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