Golden Boot tips: Premier League top goalscorer best bets and preview for 2022/23 season
Tom Carnduff picks out four players who provide value to be the top goalscorer in the 22/23 Premier League season.
Football betting tips: Premier League
3pts e.w. Harry Kane to be the top goalscorer at 6/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1.5pts e.w. Kai Havertz to be the top goalscorer at 66/1 (Betway 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Aleksandar Mitrovic to be the top goalscorer at 80/1 (Betway 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Anthony Martial to be the top goalscorer at 80/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)
It's my favourite antepost market to get involved in, the Premier League top goalscorer often offers serious value if you're brave enough to take on the frontrunners.
Those who dominate the short prices often do so with good reason. Mohamed Salah sits at 9/2 across the board and he has a proven track record of finding the net in England's top division.
It's a market led by those featuring for the very top teams. That's hardly a surprise, those who see the most chances will naturally have the best opportunities to score and find the net.
Premier League 22/23 Top Scorer odds (via Sky Bet)
- 11/4 - Erling Haaland
- 9/2 - Mohamed Salah
- 11/2 - Harry Kane
- 10/1 - Son-Heung Min
- 11/1 - Darwin Nunez
- 14/1 - Cristiano Ronaldo
- 16/1 - Gabriel Jesus
- 28/1 - Raheem Sterling
Odds correct at 1015 BST (22/07/22)
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Boot?
Arguably the biggest signing of the summer, Manchester City won the race to sign Erling Haaland from Borussia Dortmund.
He is a goalscorer and found the net on a regular basis during his time in the Bundesliga. However, there are two reasons why we are opposing him to pick up the accolade this season.
Look, it would not be a surprise to see him score the most this season - the guy is beyond human when it comes to this ability - and we have to be prepared for that 3/1 price to come in.
The first reason to oppose is that it could well take him a season to adjust. Jack Grealish joined for £100m last summer but his impact was disappointing. It doesn't make him a bad player, just one who needed some time to get used to new surroundings.
The second of which is Haaland's injury record - which is a concern.
The forward missed 16 games across all competitions last season through different injuries and only started 21 of their 34 Bundesliga games. Throw in City's rotation - nobody is immune to that - and he may not get as many games as his scoring rivals.
Who will be the top goalscorer?
While there is value in backing some of the bigger prices in the market, it's difficult to overlook the 6/1 with multiple bookmakers on HARRY KANE TO BE TOP GOALSCORER.
Tottenham improved following Antonio Conte's arrival at the club and Kane was one of those who benefitted greatly from the appointment.
In the 28 Premier League games with Conte at the helm, Kane scored 16 goals from an xG of 18.1.
That translates to an xG/95 of 0.64, with an actual tally of 0.57. A repeat of those levels will see him well in the running for the top goalscorer accolade - something he achieved in 2016, 2017 and 2021.
He is also a penalty taker, something that can be the crucial difference maker in this market. He will take every opportunity to find the net and should continue to get the service given the improvements Tottenham have made to their squad.
A repeat of the actual levels under Conte over a 38-game season would see him score 22, while the expected goals numbers put him on 25. If he stays fit, he is very likely to be among the frontrunners to score the most.
Add in the need for form ahead of the World Cup and Kane could be on a healthy number come that November break.
Havertz to haul?
Onto those considered outsiders and I'm willing to gamble on the 66/1 best price available for KAI HAVERTZ TO BE TOP GOALSCORER.
Romelu Lukaku's departure back to Inter has given Havertz a real opportunity to have the permanent centre forward role and he has demonstrated in the past that he can deliver when playing this position.
Not only that, but that lack of Lukaku means that Chelsea should view Havertz as their preferred striker/CF with two others playing behind him. He should now be leading the line.
Havertz featured as a centre forward in 26 games last season, scoring 11 goals and providing a further three assists. That's considerably more than the three goals he scored from 18 games as an attacking midfielder.
Seven of his eight Premier League goals in 21/22 came when playing as a centre forward. It's easy to forget that he's only 23 and has had multiple seasons in England's top-flight to now fully adjust to this level.
During his final season at Bayer Leverkusen in 2019/20, he returned a record of eight goals in eight games as a centre forward. Some may consider him an attacking midfielder but he is more than capable further forward.
Martial to come good?
This definitely is a selection that depends on circumstance. That circumstance being that Cristiano Ronaldo leaves the club.
The forward wants out after they failed to make the Champions League. Options are becoming limited but if he can find a suitor we can be confident that he will push through and go.
This means that they will need to find someone else to lead the line with little noise being made about finding a replacement forward in the event Ronaldo departs.
I'm gambling on a situation where he does leave and at 80/1, we're targeting the each-way value available on ANTHONY MARTIAL TO BE TOP GOALSCORER.
The 26-year-old found the net in pre-season games against Liverpool and Melbourne Victory and new boss Erik ten Hag has made clear that Martial is in his plans.
Erik ten Hag believes Anthony Martial can kick on for #MUFC if he stays focused & motivated pic.twitter.com/8KA0IPw3KD
— Simon Peach (@SimonPeach) July 15, 2022
"I'm sure he can come back even better," the United manager recently told the media. "I think when he has the right focus and the right motivation and he works hard he will have production because he is a good player.
"I say when he has the right focus and every day delivers his max then he will have production and it's up to him."
This is a big outsider selection - that is obvious in the fact that it is 80/1 - but if he is a regular starting striker in a side expected to finish in the top-six then it may prove to be value if he can go past 15 goals on his league tally.
Mitro's on fire...again?
It's difficult to expect huge things from any of the promoted sides - particularly expecting the main striker to contribute with enough goals to be in contention to become the top goalscorer.
However, given his remarkable scoring rate in Fulham's successful Sky Bet Championship campaign, it may well be worth the gamble on the 80/1 for ALEKSANDAR MITROVIC TO BE TOP GOALSCORER.
Many will point to his time in the Premier League last time - he netted three goals in 27 appearances - and that came after a Championship season that returned 26 goals.
However, this time is different, and he has a coach in Marco Silva who clearly knows how to get the best out of him. This is a Fulham team with remarkable strength in attack - they scored 106 goals from 93.8 xGF on their way to the title.
In 44 games, Mitrovic scored a ridiculous 43 goals from 34.69 xG. On top of that, he added seven assists from 5.14 xA. A bargain fantasy football option is there.
Yes, that's right. A total of 43 league goals in 44 league games.
That is a staggering tally and it's worth gambling on him continuing the momentum into the division above and getting enough to throw him in contention.
Premier League 22/23 top goalscorer best bets
- 3pts e.w. Harry Kane to be the top goalscorer at 6/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
- 1.5pts e.w. Kai Havertz to be the top goalscorer at 66/1 (Betway 1/4 1,2,3,4)
- 1pt e.w. Aleksandar Mitrovic to be the top goalscorer at 80/1 (Betway 1/4 1,2,3,4)
- 1pt e.w. Anthony Martial to be the top goalscorer at 80/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)
Odds correct at 1015 BST (22/07/22)
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